So this is where Milan landed?…Allegri. All the other options out there and this is what they picked? Really?…Really?…Sigh…
We got a lot to unpack, and we won’t cover all of it here in this post but we should at least start. So, let’s dive in.
My Initial Thoughts
Being gone for the last week on vacation, I was able to watch the last game of the season but not until later in the evening and therefore wasn’t able to comment during the game. I also wasn’t able to write a post match and I had planned on writing one yesterday but then the Allegri rumor picked up steam and here we are.
As you can see from the graphic at the top I’m less than enthused. Will he get results? Sure, should be a top 6 at the minimum and they stand a good chance at finishing in the top 4 for at least this season. A Scudetto is also in play with them lacking any European obligations, although I’m less convinced of this than I would be if Conceição had stayed. So, I’m confused what exactly this hire accomplishes other than making games even more unbearable than what we just endured.
The hiring is funny to me on 2 levels, the first is seeing a lot of you who complained about Pioli not being good enough and wanting him gone now claiming this is a good hire because Allegi will bring stability to the club, getting consistent top 4 results. Hmm…that sounds a lot like what Pioli had brought to the club…maybe it’s not always greener on the other side, eh? Nothing like doing a 180 on a previous position (which can be fine, provided you learned something and aren’t just going with the prevailing wind).
The second thing I’m finding funny is that Milan is going the retread route. That’s what Gerry & Co. came up with? A blast from the past? All the analytics and moneyball and ruthless venture capital acumen and this is what we get? It reminds me of what Warner Brothers just did with HBO Max…
(This is just proof that having money doesn’t necessarily mean you’re smart or know what the f**k you’re doing…)
Milan has essentially pissed away €100M with the results from last season and are now paying €2M more per season for a coach destined to give them Pioli-level results (if we’re lucky) while playing uglier and dentist-chair level football. I mentioned when Redbird took over and fired Maldini that there were examples for how this ownership was likely going to go, referencing the Oakland A’s (going cheap ass and pocketing money), the Dallas Cowboys (initial success self-sabotaged with persistent mediocrity while marketing well and still making money hand over fist), or the Houston Astros, a team built on moneyball/analytics and smart targeted spending which brings hardware to the club. While I was hoping for the Astros, it sure is looking like we’re getting the Dallas Cowboys (they haven’t won a Super Bowl since the 1995-96 season in case you’re wondering how that’s going).
Expectation Setting
So, all of that above is what I think of this hire…a dumb and uncreative decision. But how will the Allegri retread route go? We can look at a few numbers from the Allegri-Juve retread years and get a sense of it. When he returned to Juventus in 2021, Juventus had just finished in 4th place with 78 points and a Champions League Round of 16. For reference that season they spent €163M in the transfer market and had wages of €216M. Here’s how Allegri’s retread seasons performed:
For comparison’s sake, here’s what Milan and Pioli did during the same time:
After pulling these numbers I have even less confidence in this decision. I mean look at them. Bloated transfer fees, excessive payroll, mediocre results. They never finished better than the season before his return. I’m starting to think Allegri is going the José Mourinho route: gradually diminishing results due to a lack of managerial evolution. Meanwhile the fanbase stays delusional thinking success is around the corner as does management, trying to plug the holes by throwing money at it.
Never once did Allegri out-perform Pioli and Pioli always had less. Just to pile on and perhaps even more concerning is that he’s always had one of the highest spending teams in Serie A, even when he was with Milan the first time as well as his first go-round with Juventus. Can he perform in a Gerry & Co. business model? One of modest spending and cutthroat selling? I’m not expecting Conte-esque tantrums from him but none of this is inspiring confidence.
Wrap Up
I’ve seen just about universal praise for the decision to bring Allegri back but I’m not convinced. Many of the same people celebrating this were the loudest ones calling for Pioli’s exit, so I don’t have a ton of confidence in their judgement. I’ll never root for Milan’s failure but I’ll hold off putting the champagne on ice for now.
Whether I wanted this or not it’s here. I have a feeling I’ll be making that Allegri-wincing-face a lot over the next 12 months…
Forza Milan.
gillis
*One last thing: I’ve recently reconnected with someone I met when I first starting looking for Milan blogs, Pete Acquaviva. I initially discovered him via Elaine’s Milan Obsession blog where he would do the occasional podcast with her. I soon found myself hitting up his blog on the regular, as he was heavily focused on tactics, which I love. Like me, he wasn’t the biggest fan of Allegri (I might be understating that…). While we were only acquaintances before, we connected again a couple of years back, first on Twitter and then with the Colorado Rapids of the MLS. We both aren’t exactly diehards but we happen to both be in Denver and we both happen to have season tickets, so we decided to meet in person.
I bring all of this up to say that he just restarted his blog with the return of Allegri (the name of the blog is perfect BTW) and I recommend you drop in there as well as here. He’s very knowledgeable about the game and has a great writing style. You might even see him drop in here from time to time.