Milan abruptly fired their technical director this week, just one day after the conclusion of this most recent season. This in and of itself is not particularly interesting as there are probably 10s, maybe even 100s, of professional football teams firing their technical directors during this time of the year. But in our case, as Milan fans, this particular technical director is a Milan legend and one of the game’s greatest players – Paolo Maldini.
One of the reasons I didn’t immediately hop on here and start typing up something was because I knew I needed my thoughts to settle, so I instead posted something really quick that would act like a landing zone for all of us to come and share our initial thoughts and emotions. It was our own version of Reddit…Rossit maybe?…(red?…rosso?…ah never mind…)
So, I’m going to share a few thoughts, elaborate on some things I mentioned in the comment section of the last post, and give you my best guess to where things are heading. Some things I will share will be facts, others opinions, and I’ll do my best to make sure you know which is which. My main concern, and I’ll share this up front, is that Milan will no longer be Milan under Redbird, that it will be something else that is not measured in trophies but on ROI and corporate dividends. In essence, I see our Milan as dissolving away and what replaces it is something I do not want and will find hard to support as a fan.
Redbird Acquisition and the 2022-23 Season
To refresh our memories, Redbird formally agreed to purchase on June 1, 2022 from Elliott Capital Management, about a week after Milan won their 19th Scudetto. Talks had been ongoing and this was simply the end point of that effort. Elliott themselves had taken over Milan after the current owner at the time, Li Yonghong, defaulted on his loan when he purchased the club in April 2017.
Negotiations were long and there were a few other contenders, including Investcorp, who ended their pursuit of the club about a week earlier. Redbird, who towards the end of their negotiation needed attentional capital, reached out to the owners of the New York Yankees to complete their buying consortium and closed the deal on August 31, 2022. Did I mention Redbird is a part owner of the Boston Red Sox?…this maybe should’ve been our first red flag.
Redbird stayed mostly in the shadows this past season since when they came on board the season had already begun and the summer transfer window had just closed. Oddly enough, in the January transfer window they appeared to stay in the shadows once again despite being on the job for 4-full months even as Milan had one of their worst months in history and were in desperate need of reinforcements. If Redbird was going to invest in the club, and the Scudetto was still within reach at the time, it sure seemed like bringing in a body or two would’ve been appropriate to help the cause. Surely Pioli, Maldini, and Moncada would’ve been asking for reinforcements and yet there was nothing. Maybe this should’ve been red flag #2…
The Conclusion of the 2022-23 Season
Milan and Milanisti everywhere weren’t even done celebrating the career of the one and only Zlatan Ibrahimovic when we were all hit with the news that Maldini and Cardinale had a tense meeting and only hours later Maldini had either quit or been fired. The statement the club put out was pathetic and petty and seemed to come from the top. Who will replace Maldini appears to be no one in particular, as according to the Maldini press release, “His responsibilities will be assigned to an integrated working group who will work closely with the first team coach, reporting directly to the Chief Executive Officer.” Surely this will be fine and thankfully the idiom, too many cooks in the kitchen doesn’t exist…oh wait.
To his credit, Director of Sport Fredrick Massara, who was not fired alongside Maldini, resigned his position the next day and was given an even shorter press statement than Maldini. The disrespect shown to these two men is unacceptable and in Maldini’s case, is now twice the club has failed to show humility and class when parting ways with the legend.
What's Next?
I’m not entirely sure what’s next, and more importantly, no one does outside of a select few in and around Cardinale and the Redbird leadership. But we do know what they’ve done so far as owners, as I’ve highlighted above, and we know a few other things based on previous statements and who Cardinale is already brining in to help him build his version of Milan.
Considering Redbird is a capital/financial entity, it is reasonable to assume their number one goal is return on investment – aka ROI aka corporate profits and returns for shareholders. We would be wise to acknowledge this upfront and to accept it as a fandom because everything Cardinale and company will do will be towards those ends. As Cardinale says himself in this video from 2020 (thanks to longtime blog supporter Ciaran for the link), he’s looking for a long term sustainable model built on robust financial returns:
To be clear, there is nothing wrong with this being the end goal. Lots of entities exist solely for extracting as much revenue and profit from its customers as possible. It’s not what I want, not from a company I buy from and definitely not from the entity owning my favorite football club, but everyone can make that decision for themselves. I know what I didn’t hear from him was success and trophies and that does concern me.
In the video you’ll hear him talking about buying teams not at the top of European football, some of whom he names (the Chelseas and Tottenhams), but those a little bit down the line, in the 6-11 spots, but don’t risk relegation. This to me sounds like feeder clubs, ala Atalanta, West Ham, Aston Villa, Villareal, Valencia, VfL Wolfsburg, or Bayer Leverkusen. What it does not sound like to me is AC Milan.
In addition to the clip above of Cardinale sharing his thinking on these matters, some of you have said maybe that was in 2020 but not now that he owns Milan. Well, his recent hiring of Billy Beane, of Money Ball movie fame, but who is better known (correctly or not) as the father of sports analytics as general manager of Major League Baseball’s Oakland A’s, and Cardinale’s promotion of analytics guru Geoffrey Moncada, surely point to a data-driven/cost savvy/profits-focused organization.
Before we keep going, I want to make it clear that I do not think moving or incorporating data analytics is bad AT ALL. It’s actually how I pay my bills in my day job. The concern for me, in conjunction with other evidence, is HOW data analytics will ultimately manifest within my favorite football club. Moreover, Milan was clearly already using data analytics, and using them well I might add, as evidenced by Moncada already being on the payroll and Milan being a team full of young players, most of them cheaply obtained and cheaply signed. To top it off, Milan’s data analytics WAS ALREADY BEARING FRUIT in the form of three straight top 4 finishes, a Scudetto, and a deep run in Champions League. Do you think Maldini found Kalulu or Thiaw, or saw the value in Theo or Tonali or Bennacer or Maignan all by himself? All of them came from scouting – Moncada-led scouting – for peanuts or way under their actual worth. So if your support of Cardinale and Redbird is because you want Milan to go in a more analytical direction, when then you’re likely just masking some other reason or agenda because Milan was already doing just that and were winning because of it.
What Maldini has pulled off for Milan these last 3 years is nothing short of amazing. More importantly, I think Maldini knew that too and knew the threading-the-needle they had just pulled off was not sustainable. In this clip below, during an interview during this most recent deep run in Champions League, you can hear Maldini himself say they needed investment:
This is reason Maldini was sacked... We will put it out to the world to see how Gery is a Coward.
— Prince_SparoLove_❤🦅 (@jacksparo212) June 6, 2023
Maldini only asked for big money investments. #CardinaleOut #RedBirdOut pic.twitter.com/mTvnVlXlfW
This to me does not sound like a technical director who wanted to keep the same approach of the last 4 years if the ambitions of the club were to return to the same European heights they have reached throughout their history. I believe Maldini wanted to start spending more money on better and more established talent, still within the same framework they had built of financial sustainability and keen scouting, but with at least a slightly higher budget to up the chances the prospects would come good and increase the athletic and technical ability of the squad.
With that out of the way, I think it would be helpful to at least take a brief look at some examples of how this whole Redbird endeavor might go. Let’s start first with the Oakland A’s.
Billy Beane and the Oakland A's
I’m going to keep these examples short but wanted to highlight a couple of things. For the A’s, Billy Beane came in and revolutionized all of sports and not just baseball using data analytics. His team initially found success going young and cheap and by the end of his first decade in charge found success, averaging being in the bottom 5 for spending but in the top 5 for win-loss records (they had some division success, which would be like winning the league, but no world championships, which would be like Champions League). This success was not long lasting however, as the A’s would struggle in the next decade as other teams adopted their analytics approach, they never increased their spending, are last or next to last in average fan attendance, and are on the verge of moving from the home they’ve had for the last 55ish years.
Billy Beane, who after the A’s was briefly hired to help the revenue-challenged MLS San Jose Earthquakes become relevant, appears to be chosen by Cardinale because he knows Beane is content working within a small budget. If Cardinale wanted someone to lead a more robust operation then there are a lot of other options from a data-driven sports world, many of whom have taken Beane’s approach and evolved it and refined it, to choose from. This hiring seems VERY deliberate.
This to me is the worst-case scenario for Milan, and while I don’t think this is where they’ll ultimately end up under Redbird, I can’t rule it out completely.
Jerry Jones, Jimmy Johnson, the Dallas Cowboys, and the unraveling of a Dynasty
I mentioned this in the comment section of the last post but this Maldini firing has felt like the Jimmy Johnson firing for the Dallas Cowboys back in 1993.
For those unfamiliar with this story, Jerry Jones had purchased the team and began tearing it down after a decade of moderate success but poor and aging talent. In 3 very short years of ownership Jerry and Jimmy, who he had hired to help coach and lead this rebuild, went from the worst record in the NFL to the top 10 and just a year after that won their 1st Super Bowl in about 15yrs. They would win again the very next season but after that second championship Jerry drunkenly popped off at a party and said he didn’t need Jimmy. Jimmy heard, didn’t like that, came in for a meeting and would quit before the meeting concluded. Dallas had 2 more good years and 1 more Super Bowl on that Jimmy built-team after that but then Jerry was forced to do the heavy lifting. Now, it’s been almost 30yrs since that last title.
One last thing here: Dallas is a very successful franchise with regards to value. They are the most valuable sports team on the planet, with the best stadium on the planet, and they’ve had some moderate success since Jimmy quit. But I’m still waiting for their next Super Bowl win and I don’t think it’s coming until Jerry Jones dies. So, if this is good enough for you then I think you might be in luck because I could see this playing out even if I think the A’s example is just as plausible. One thing is for sure, both organizations being led by a J(G)erry has me nervous…
The Houston Astros and Sustained Success
The last example is the one I hope happens but I fear with what I described above with Maldini seemingly wanting to invest more in the club and his subsequent firing, is perhaps NOT the way things are heading.
The Houston Astros, inspired by what the Billy Beane-Oakland A’s had done, was also a bloated aging team like the Cowboys and so in 2012 decided to tear it all down and rebuild. They went young and cheap and were dead last by the end of the 2013 season. They found success though just 4 years later like the Cowboys in the early 90s but what differentiates them from the A’s was what they did AFTER reaching the top: they altered the formula.
The formula worked to rebuild but if they were going to continue and be successful then they had to evolve. So, after having the lowest payroll during the 2012 and 2013 seasons, they are now sitting in the top 10 of baseball a decade later, which is different from the A’s approach. They are about half as high as those teams in the top 5, similar to where the top teams in Europe spend (ManCity, Real, PSG, ManU) and are comfortably the next tier down (like an Inter, Bayern, or Atletico), which is a good equivalent to where Milan would fit in what I think is a realistic scenario.
The Astros have continued to win with division titles in 5 of the last 6yrs (again, think of Scudettos here), have been to 6 straight American League Championship Series (like Champions League semifinals), and 4 World Series during this stretch (think of Champions League finals), winning 2 of them. THIS is where I believe Maldini wanted to take Milan: after an initial rebuild that fixed the books and landed key foundational pieces (Leão, Theo, Maignan, and Tonali), a focused and sustained approach that constantly reloaded and retooled along with key pieces to reach the highest pinnacles of sports.
Conclusion
I of course can’t prove this is what Maldini wanted, the Astros approach, and unless he explicitly says it himself, none of us will truly know. But, based on everything I shared above, this is what I believe. I believe Cardinale did not want to get into those higher tiers of spending and wanted a franchise lean in the books and heavy in financial returns.
Teams at the very top don’t have the highest profit margins if they have any at all, which is why you don’t see many investment firms owning professional sports teams. To further bang home this point, most professional sports teams are often categorized as non-profit, or at least those in the United States are, which could be another reason Cardinale wanted to get his hands on European sports teams since he couldn’t structure the teams here as easily to fit this model he himself described in the video above of maximum profitability.
I think it would be wise that all of us begin thinking of Redbird Milan as an investment, as all behaviors and actions that we’ve seen so far (the non-investment in January, the elevating and hiring of data-heavy personnel, the firing of Maldini) point to this reality. The Milan we knew, the one of great domestic and European success and trophies, is dissolving into something we aren’t likely to love, enjoy, or want.
Ending this post with, In Maldini I Trust, even though it’s meaning has somewhat changed, still feels appropriate…#IMIT
gillis