Twenty nine rounds in and 9 to go. One last check in before the stretch run. Last time we did this was after round 20. I’ll update the table position when we last met, look at European prospects for the top half and relegation worries for the bottom half. There is still much to play for in the MOST EXCITING LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!!
Ratings
INTER (WAS 1ST/NOW 1ST) – Up ’til a week ago it was very much the status quo. They were, in my opinion, one of the 3 favorites to win CL alongside City and Real Madrid. They were also steamrolling the league winning while scoring at will in most games. 100 points was within reach as was a possible league scoring record for Lautaro.
Then everything changed. After going up 2-0 at AM they fell apart and got knocked out on PKs. Lautaro’s shot was so bad it still hasn’t landed. Whispers of him not showing up for big games resurfaced. Then the weekend came where they started ok but eventually floundered their way to a 1-1 draw at home to Napoli. The icing on the cake was former Lazio man Acerbi going full NAZIO hurling racial slurs at Juan Jesus. All in all a week to forget after a near perfect opening 6 months of the campaign. With the title all but secure all that’s left is the points record of 102. To achieve that they would have to win out. Really the only question is whether they blow a 14 point lead with 9 to play. they won’t do that either.
STOCK SOMEHOW DOWN?
MILAN (3RD/2ND) – “Despite all the negativity and complaining about the management change and Pioli and the training staff we are still 3rd.”
And now we are second baby! In the league we have 1 loss in 15. We have essentially clinched a CL spot, sitting 15 points above 6th place Atalanta. We won’t win the league but that’s fine. The first goal every season is top 4. Mission accomplished. In Europe we may have dropped out of Champions League but we are making a nice run through Europa. Next up will be Roma which should be fun. I prefer European opponents in European competitions but games against Roma are always a treat. I don’t expect a staring contest like last year’s 2 legs against Napoli. I expect goals. Pioli will have the group rotated and ready to go. Can’t wait!
STOCK UP BA-BY!
JUVENTUS (2ND/3RD) – Six weeks ago Juve were still winning almost entirely 1 goal games. No matter the opponent it was 1-0. Then they conceded at least once in 7 straight. Those 1-0 wins became 1-0 and 2-1 losses and 1-1 and 2-2 draws…. AND one hideous 3-2 win. They have 7 points in 8. They are the picture of a team with nothing to play for in January. CL is sewn up. Allegri is probably out the door. There are probably a lot of players that ought to go with him.
Before it’s all said and done there is still the matter of the Coppa. It has opened up for them as Inter, Milan, Napoli and Roma are all out now. It’s right there for them and we all know that they take the Coppa seriously every year. Mad Max would like nothing better than to win a trophy on his way out. Honestly, a top 4 finish AND the Coppa wouldn’t make for a bad year at all. At least 15 teams in Serie A would kill for that kind of season. Just not spoiled Juve fans.
STOCK DOWN
BOLOGNA (7TH/4TH) – Funny 12 weeks ago they were also in 4th. Then they dropped to 7th after the 4th place curse delivered them 3 draws and a loss. Normally that sort of run would be a death sentence for a team overachieving. Not with this team. Like Icarus reforming his wings during his fall from grace they are once again daring to fly into the top 4. That just goes to show what a good coach is capable of. Bologna is young. They could have kept sliding. Not with Motta though. He rearranged some pieces and they are playing better than ever. They have also managed to create some depth along the way with players like Saelemaekers, Odgaard, Urbanski and Ndoye able to pitch in. It also helps their run they have no Europe and no Coppa. It’s just the league for them. If they make CL next year, and they WILL, they will not be an easy out.
STOCK BACK UP
ROMA (9TH/5TH) -This was my last line of our last update right before DDR took over. Next 3 are Hellas, Salernitana and Cagliari. That should help De Rossi get some momentum. That was spot on as Roma won them all and shot right back up the table. DDR has them playing better. They are scoring more, which certainly helps. One thing that was remained the same is they still can’t beat the big boys. Mourinho couldn’t. DDR hasn’t… yet. Proof?
They have 6 points from 12 games against the current top 9.
They have 45 points from 17 against the bottom 11.
They have 5 games left against the top 9. 4 against the teams in the bottom 11. Mix in at least 2 more Europa games and it’s gonna get frisky. He has to win 2 of those 5 remaining games against the top teams. It might just come down to their trip to Atalanta for round 36. Circle that game. That might just decide that last CL spot.
STOCK UP… FOR NOW
ATALANTA (5TH/6TH) – Meanwhile Atalanta have a much easier run out. They still have a game in hand on Roma AND 7 of their last 10 are against teams in the bottom half of the table. They also get the Roma game at home. All big advantages.
Disadvantges? They still have 2-legged ties with both Fiorentina in the Coppa and Liverpool in Europa. That is a LOT of games to be played. By the time play resumes that will be 14 games in 55 days. That’s a LOT.
Form has not been great but they also just played teams ranked 2, 3 and 4 in the league. Their destiny is in their hands. They are a balanced squad with lots of scorers. Lookman, Scamacca, CDK and Koopmeiners all have 9 or more goals. Carnesecchi and the D will have to step up. Safe to say it’s gonna be a great battle for 5th.
STOCK SIDEWAYS
NAPOLI (8TH/7TH) – It kinda feels like they are finally over the hump. The win over Juve was big. So was blasting Sassuolo. Osimhen looked back in form. Kvara looked better. There’s no Coppa. There’s no more Europe to distract them. Maybe after the shitstorm that was the first 4 months of the season a run at CL is still possible? MAYBE?
But then you look at the other 5 games over this last 7 league games and you see why they are still 7th. Lackluster loss to Milan. Then draws to Genoa, Cagliari, Torino and Inter. That’s just not gonna do it. They’ve been between 6th and 9th for 15 matchdays in a row now. The coach won’t last. Several players have one foot out the door. The defense has kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
STOCK UP…. I THINK… NAH MAYBE NOT
FIORENTINA (4TH/8TH) – The curse of 4th place is real! Since reaching 4th after round 18 they have just 2 wins in 10. That includes some hideous losses to Lecce and Sassuolo. Not pretty. Top 4 isn’t happening. Not all is lost though.
They are still in the Coppa and are also in the Conference League quarters. It’s a lot to look forward to for the fans but also a lot of games to wash down. Th depth is ok as they have a lot of danger men that CAN score but they are also missing that guy they can really lean on. To win those things you need that guy. At the end of the day they probably lose one final and go out in the semis in the other. A solid year but they have to be getting tired of almost winning things.
STOCK DOWN…. BUT WHERE WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
LAZIO (6TH/9TH) – You want a dark, DARK horse to get that 5th spot?
Lemme introduce you to Igor Tudor (BYE BYE SMOKING MAN) and Lazio. Tudor will revitalize them. The new coach bump is real, just look at Roma. They had the second best defense in the league last year. Provedel is excellent in goal. They have a proven goal scorer up top in Immobile that is stll capable of a solid 10 game tear. They have no CL. They have no Coppa. It’s all the markings of a team that can circle the wagons and make a big push.
STOCK DOWN
MONZA (11TH/10TH) – Call me lazy but the same applies to Monza, Torino and Genoa. All have coaches (Palladino, Urich, Gilardino) that are doing a great job and should all be in consideration for ‘bigger’ jobs. All three have OK attacks that do just enough. The real deal of all 3 are their defenses and goal keeping. All 3 keepers (Di Gregorio, Vanva, Martinez) could easily get big moves to bigger clubs as well. They are all solid enough that they are in no danger of relegation and also really don’t have a chance of getting into Europe. They all have at least one guy that could make a really big move this summer (Di Gregorio, Buongiorno, Gudmundsson).
FUN FACT: Last year Toino finished 10th and Monza 11th. Imagine that.
STOCK REMAINS THE SAME
TORINO (10TH/11TH) – One more thing…Juric losing Schurrs at CB and being able to turn to Buongiorno without losing a beat has been amazing. They are conceding less than a goal a game after losing their best defender to an ACL. Amazing.
STOCK REMAINS THE SAME
GENOA (12TH/12TH) – Morten Frendrup. Remember the name. He’s gonna get a huge move some day and play some big minutes for someone. Reminds me a lot of Hjulmand from Lecce last year. A rock in the middle.
STOCK REMAINS THE SAME
LECCE (13TH/13TH) – LECCE continue to LECCE. Over the last 6 weeks they dipped all the way to 17th but then bounced right back. You’d have thought losing D’Aversa would have sunk them but they managed to rebound. They are not safe yet but they are close. Usually 30 points is enough and right now they stand on 28. The schedule won’t help with 4 top 6 teams left on the ledger. They are struggling to score and the defense is NOT what it was last season. Last year they conceded 46 all year and this year they have conceded 45 with 9 to play. Banda is good but he jut can’t find the back of the net. Krstovic finally got one last week after a long drought. Him finding any kind of form would be great. Falcone remains a wizard between the sticks.
STOCK UP
UDINESE (16TH/14TH) – I wrote this last time It’s strange in my mind that they have been playing better under Cioffi but remain 16th in the table. Since then they have picked up the pace and are now up in 14th, pretty safe from the bottom 3. Lucca and Thauvin have spearheaded the attack while the defense has finally found it’s form giving up just 5 in 7. Bijol has settled in and Okoye is going to be a name to watch at keeper in the future. Their last 4 finishes have been 13, 14, 12 and 12. Looks like they will finish right in that neighborhood yet again.
STOCK UP
HELLAS VERONA (18TH/15TH) – Thought were dead last year. I was all over Spezia who eventually crashed and burned. Lesson learned this time around. Wanna make some cheddar? Take them as a Double Chance at home, no matter the opponent. None of Roma, Bologna, Lazio or Juve have beaten them there. Those would have all gotten you nice returns. Like last year they sold off a ton of players midyear and didn’t skip a beat. They did it again this year. Sounds like a terrible strategy to rely on but it works for them. Lesson learned!
STOCK BACK UP FOR YET ANOTHER YEAR IN SERIE A
CAGLIARI (17TH/16TH) – Just when they looked dead they pulled a Lazarus and beat Empoli and Salernitana in back to back games. That saw them get as high as 15th ’til losing to Monza last week. The schedule the rest of the way is rough but having Lecce, Sassuolo and Hellas at home still to play should help. Having a veteran team and an old workhorse like Ranieri helps. Getting blasted by the big teams doesn’t matter to them as they play the long game. Nahitan Nandez, who feels like he’s been there forever, is having another nice campaign. Same with Pavoletti who seems ageless. Those guys rode them down then helped bring them back up. That kind of experience for a team like Cagliari is priceless.
It will likely come down to them, Sassuolo or Empoli to see who survives.
STOCK MIGHT JUST MAKE IT…
EMPOLI (19TH/17TH) – Talk about riding the roller coaster. They were in the relegation zone for 17 of the first 20 rounds this season. They had scored 11 goals ALL YEAR. It was BLEAK.
Then Nicola showed up and they went unbeaten in 6 while scoring 11 goals and conceding just 5. They got all the way to the mountaintop, okay 13th! Mbaye Niang was scoring a goal a game. The Nicola magic was REAL! Then they hosted Cagliari with a chance to just about clinch survival. Of course they lost 1-0. Then lost 1-0 again to Milan…. and then 1-0 again to Bologna. Not the worst results but that loss to Cagliari really hurt. They just can’t score. I don’t know what the record is for least amount of goals scored in a season where a team stay up but 22 has to be close. They are gonna have to win one more to stay up. Where does that win come from? Probably the team we will look at next.
STOCK UP
FROSINONE (15TH/18TH) – ALMOST ALL OF THIS IS FROM 9 WEEKS AGO. VIRTUALLY NOTHING HAS CHANGED. UPDATES IN CAPS/BOLD.
From red hot start and surprise top half team to 5 straight losses and 15th spot. NOW 18th. This is what usually happens to the recently promoted fun times good/bad teams… one day they are just BAD. They have just 1 point in their last 7 league games. STILL TRUE! Over that period they have been outscored 13-6. NOW 19-8. Where early on they were able to win or draw some high scoring games now they are just getting stomped. They never had a defense and now with no offense to match there may be no end to the slide. After early plaudits EDF’s name has come up as being on the chopping block. Is that fair though? No one expected them to stay up. I think most had them on their short list to go down. 15th spot after 20 rounds? MAKE THAT 18TH AFTER 29.
Thing is in this league sometimes you need a different voice to get a team over the line. There are guys out there that specialize in that sort of thing. THEY DROPPED THE BALL THERE. EDF SHOULD HAVE BEEN BOOTED 6 WEEKS AGO.
STOCK PLUMMETING AND PLUMMETING….. AND PLUMMETING
SASSUOLO (14TH/19TH) – THEY’VE MANAGED TO DROP 5 PLACES IN 9 WEEKS. FIVE!! That seems insane for a team with the attack of Berardi, Pinamonti and Lauriente up top. It’s insane for a team with mids like Thorstvedt, Boloca, Volpato and Bajrami. It does however make sense with that putrid defense. Good lord it’s bad. Like Genoa and Cagliari a few years ago maybe they are just due to go down. It would be kinda sad and include a massive fire sale but better in the long run. Their shrewd sales followed by replenishing just hasn’t worked this time around. I thought they would make some moves in January but no such luck. The game at home to Cagliari in round 37 could either seal safety or be the end of a long, ugly season.
STOCK WAY DOW
SALERNITANA (20TH/20TH) – THROW THE TOWEL! STOP THE FIGHT! STOP THE FIGHT!!
STOCK DEAD
Final Thoughts
There’s STILL a long way to go but teams are running out of time to make a move. The battle for European spots AND the battle to survive will likely go down to the last day. Never a dull moment in the BEST LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!
ENJOY THE CALCIO!
Lisi