Oh boy…this match is not coming at an ideal time. Maybe Inter will join in watching us burn…
MATCHDAY:
LAST FIVE
INTER: DDWWD
MILAN: LWDLD
FORMATIONS
INTER (3-5-2): Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez (C)
MILAN (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Royal, Gabbia, Tomori, Hernández (C); Reijnders, Fofana; Pulisic, Morata, Leão; Abraham
TIME/LOCATION
TIME: 2:45pm EST/7:45pm GMT
PLACE: San Siro, Milano
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount+ and FuboTV here in the US of Aye (Spanish broadcast on Fox Deportes in the US); FuboTV and TLN for Canada; TNT in the UK (maybe?); ESPN for Mexico; DAZN for Germany, Austria, Switzerland; a website called GXR for our friends in India; and illegal streams that support dictators and oligarchs everywhere.
*Let us know if this needs updating or if you have additional broadcasters to add*
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
I don’t have a lot of hope for Milan in this game. Fonseca’s tactics, or perhaps more importantly, the decision to do things the way he has, appears to have lost him the locker room and I’m not convinced his Milan tenure can be salvaged. Facing Inter now just feels like salt in the wound.
I spoke about Fonseca’s decisions vs Liverpool in the Milan-Liverpool post match, but one additional thing I’d like to highlight as I’ve seen people trying to defend Fonseca and put most of the onus on the players, especially Leão. Now I’m not going to advocate that Leão is some workaholic on both sides of the ball but his main job as Milan’s most talented player is to score and generate offense and Fonseca appears to have not understood this very simple premise.
The focal point of the argument supporting Fonseca and his tactics against Liverpool was that he was trying to free up Leão for 1v1s by playing down the right and pulling Liverpool’s defense over. Ok…but you have to have a threat down the right worthy to draw Liverpool’s eyes and attention to that side and Pulisic, as much as I love him, can’t do it when paired with Calabria and even Fofana’s side of the double pivot. Even Reijnders leaning that way isn’t going to be enough.
So, as I mentioned in the post match, instead what we got was a Liverpool side that didn’t have to overcommit to their left AND also didn’t have to worry about Leão and Theo because the ball was on the other side. The inverse of what Fonseca was trying to do works because Leão and Theo ARE worthy of the opponent’s extra attention and would therefore free up space and 1v1s for Pulisic…a very tasty proposition. You do this enough and Pulisic and the right side starts burning you and causing problems and all of the sudden you can’t allot the extra bodies on Leão’s side and start moving them over to the other side to help. It doesn’t take a tactics maestro to understand what happens after that…
Now Leão did have a few opportunities and of course I would’ve loved to have seen Leão and Milan do more with those chances. But soccer is a volume business and not some uber-efficient endeavor. By the logic of those blaming Leão and saying he wasted his opportunities, then what was Liverpool? They had a TON of chances and only scored on 2 dead ball situations and a disastrous Pavlovic lost ball that resulted in outnumbered-Milan counter. Talk about wasteful…
The fact of the matter is that all signs point to a coach – Fonseca – who has taken the approach that he can accomplish what he’s supposed to do by doing it his way. The tactics from the Liverpool game and his decision to bench Leão (and Theo) in matchday 3 have failed. The benching in particular was the turning point I believe. You decide to make THAT decision and you better win and win handedly and we all know it took Leão and Theo coming in to salvage a point, further poisoning his tenure as coach and in the locker room. Now he’s very likely seen from the player’s perspective as a coach who doesn’t know what he’s doing and doesn’t trust what he’s selling the team on regarding his ideas and tactics. It’s not impossible to overcome this but boy is it an uphill battle, one that most in this situation are unable to overcome.
And now to bring it back to today, we have the derby. Inter is not as dominate as they’ve been the previous 2 seasons but combined with Milan’s current situation, I’m not convinced we’re not going to see basically the same thing as the last 6 matches vs them, namely a drubbing.
The keys for Milan, if they are to win, would be Royal in for Calabria as the most important lineup change from last game. Provided he doesn’t bench Leão and Theo then most other changes don’t suffer any drastic dropoff in talent…and it doesn’t appear like he’s done that. What this lineup does suggest is that Milan will be in a 4-4-2 since Morata and Abraham are starting (FotMob has them in a 4-2-3-1 to start but I don’t believe that’ll be their shape). I don’t hate the idea (it doesn’t crowd out Milan’s left) but I’m not sure it best suits Leão and Pulisic as mezzalas. Time to find out?
The most important part is DO NOT PLAY A HIGH LINE. Inter wants to suck you in and then counter you to death. With how poor Milan’s transition defense is and has been, it’s going to be another bloodbath if Milan attempts that again. Pioli painfully got this wrong, well, basically the last 6 times vs Inter, so there’s at least some hope that Fonseca won’t at least do that. If he does then he’s done, both in this game and as Milan coach.
Fonseca has a unique opportunity here: a bad loss and he’s probably done. A close game or a draw it’s anyone’s guess. But a win?…a win could turn EVERYTHING around.
Predictions…Milan lose 3-1 and Fonseca is sacked a day or so after the match.
Lisi says…
…though I expect a Leão goal.
Forza Milan
gillis
**Don’t forget to check out Lisi’s Weekend Whip Around: Round 5!