The new season is here! The summer flew by, didn’t it?!
Between the end of last season until now, we’ve had a Euros to get through and then a de facto shortened transfer window with most teams, players, and agents all deciding to wait-out said Euros. Then for good measure we had the Olympics and a lot of mostly U23 players competing right up until a week or two ago. Throw in the Serie A season starting a week earlier than normal (it usually starts a week after the EPL kicks off) and that has meant little time for preseason previews since there’s still a lot of player movement to try and account for.
Due to this congested window we weren’t able to do our Behind Enemy Lines series where we talk with some fans of Milan’s usual top 7 competitors. Lisi and I do cover how we think the top 7 will shake out on top of Milan’s biggest offseason changes (Pioli out/Fonseca in, player movement) and specific things we’re looking for this season. But that doesn’t replace the previews we’ve done in the past and we will try and include them again next offseason.
As per the last few season previews, below is a conversation Lisi and I had about the upcoming season and our expectations for Milan, Fonseca, Leão and other star players as well as predictions for the Scudetto winner, top 7, team and league MVPs, among other topics.
Let’s dive in!
Season Preview
Last season we had a lot of new players so let’s start there again this season, first with the 3 guys who have been presented to the media and fans. How do you feel about Morata, Pavlovic, and Royal?
Michael Lisi: Going into this summer we expected/hoped to see a striker, DM, CB, and possibly a RB. The RB search intensified when Florenzi went down so that went from a want to a need pretty quickly. I am more than happy with Morata at striker. He is essentially a younger version of Giroud. He knows the league. He has played at the very highest levels and won. There’s no reason not to expect 30+ goals/assists this season. Great signing. Also helps we kept Jovic around. That’s another 5-10 goals easy.
Pavlovic I have no idea really but if you told me we would be getting a 23 year old left footed Serbian center back that gets comparisons to Jaap Stam I wouldn’t complain. And that’s exactly what we did. Royal I have no idea. I will reserve judgment ’til he plays. That being said Calabria is essentially replacement level meaning anyone else with a pulse has a chance to be better than him.
gillis15: I’m happy with Morata as well. Solid, experienced striker who already knows Serie A. I expect him to hit the ground running and I love his work rate. He’s going to make those CBs work and it’ll open up lanes for the rest of Milan’s talented attackers.
Like you, I don’t know much about Pavlovic either. He certainly looks the part and appears to be bringing a mean streak we haven’t had in the backline in some time. Royal is someone who my Tottenham buddy was very meh about but then again there are a lot of EPL players who appear “meh” there but then change leagues and find their form. With Kalulu appearing to be out the door, one of my biggest offseason musts was getting Calabria off the pitch. Hopefully Royal can do that…it shouldn’t be hard.
Milan FINALLY got their DM. It was reported this morning that Fofana is on his way. What do you think? Does he fix Milan's middle spine? Who's the odd man out of playing time (or massively reduced time) for the double pivot?
Michael Lisi: SCUDETTO INCOMING.
BENNACER to Saudi Arabia please.
gillis15: I think he’s exactly what Milan needed since Kessie, and really once Tonali left since there was no one with physically left on the roster to play in the double pivot. I think there’s still room for the less DM-y option next to Reijnders for lower table teams but if Milan wants to beat Inter, win a Scudetto, and make some noise in Champions League, then Fofana (or someone like Fofana) was a must.
As for who gets squeezed out…I’m going with RLC. I don’t think he’ll put in the defensive effort over the full season and while he’ll get a bulk of the rotation minutes early in the season, I think Musah gradually takes more and more minutes as the season progresses.
There's always a lot of complaining on social media about Milan's spending...or lack thereof...and a general stupidity about wanting video game/FIFA-levels of spending. How do you feel about Gerry Cardinale’s overall approach to player acquisition?
Michael Lisi: For years and years we had Galliani and the trick with was that if his lips were moving you didn’t listen. You always paid attention to his actions more than his words. With Gerry and his crew he is very up front. He tells you he wants player ABC and D and exactly how much he wants to spend. Then he goes and gets players ABC and D spending exactly what he told you he would spend. Last year we brought in Musah, Pulisic, Chukwueze, Reijnders, RLC, Okafor, Sportiello, Terracciano, and Jovic. That’s roughly 60 goals/assists and every one of those guys contributed major minutes. There might be games this year all 8 start. Average cost? 15 million a pop.
This year so far we got Morata, Royal, Pavlovic, Jimenez (redeemed), and now Fofana for 76 million. That’s about guess what?…15 million a pop. So in total that’s 14 guys that all look like excellent signings for about ~200 million. If you are complaining about that get off my fucking lawn. Go on Gerry. Fuck the haters.
In short: In the last 2 years Milan have signed Musah, Pulisic, Chukwueze, Reijnders, RLC, Okafor, Sportiello, Jovic, Terracciano, Morata, Royal, Pavlovic, Jimenez, and Fofana for ~200 million.
Roughly 15 million a piece.
That’s excellent business.
Let’s move on to the other big new piece of this Milan: Paulo Fonseca. What are your thoughts so far?
Michael Lisi: So far so good. Movement looks good in the friendlies. Lots of time for youngsters in games. Giving Torriani time to prove his quality. Glad we are no longer playing that game where Calabria joins the midfield and exposes the back line. I fucking hated that crap. Pulisic at AM I love. RLC deeper in the double pivot always made sense. Seems like it’s been very positive during the preseason. Once the season starts we will see what kinds of rotations and playing time guys get. So we will see.
gillis15: Agree. Even though I’m a Pioli guy still it doesn’t mean I’m wanting Fonseca to fail. If Fonseca succeeds then Milan succeeds.
On the formation and squad: I’m really happy he’s sticking with the 4-2-3-1 and as I mentioned in last season’s preview, Pulisic in the CAM/#10 role can thrive and provide Milan with a very dangerous threat up the middle. Now that Chukwueze is playing better I think this attack can challenge Inter for the best offense in the league.
On the youth stuff: I’m LOVING Fonseca giving the young guys some time. I hope it continues especially Liberali. He’s got a coolness on the ball and the individual skill to make an impact this season. Jimenez and Torriani…Torriani! Who knew. These kids can play.
Before we get to predictions, who or what are you most excited about this season, new player or otherwise?
Michael Lisi: I am thrilled to death to see what an attack of Morata, Leão, Pulisic, and Chukwueze has to offer. Those guys unleashed should easily hit for 60+ goals and well over 100 goals/assists. I am also intrigued to see what our backline looks like with the new additions. The midfield seems like it’s been a work in progress for 3 years now. Therefore the backline has to be solid. It wasn’t last year and it put immense pressure on the attack. Need more balance.
gillis15: The attack definitely has me excited but I’m really curious about the defense. If Pavlovic adjusts quickly and Royal gets Calabria off the pitch AND if Fofana adjusts quickly, then Milan could easily cut their goals allowed in half especially if Maignan rebounds after a down season. He had a solid Euro and if he’s on his game like he was his first season here, that alone could knock off 10-12 goals allowed over an entire season much less if the other pieces pan out. Well see…
Michael Lisi: One more thing. With all the talent and depth we have there is legit competition for playing time across multiple spots. This is the most depth I can remember us having for a long, long time. Adding to that competition will be playing time guys can get with the Futuro team.
gillis15: Lots to be excited about.
Alright, predictions: Where does Milan finish?
Michael Lisi: I think Inter are the clear favorite. They have the best, deepest, and most consistent roster over the last 3 years. That can’t last forever though. When you look across the league there are a lot of teams going through changes. Almost every manager is new. Juve are going through a complete rebuild. Roma are doing the same by selling off everyone not named De Rossi. Atalanta just lost Scamacca for the year. Napoli decided to bring in a lunatic out of desperation. Bologna will fade quickly. Fiorentina might surprise for top 4 but they don’t have enough for a Scudetto run. Lazio? PLEASE. The ONLY team that has a legit shot at dethroning them is us. We have the horses and the depth. We have a coach that’s looking to make his mark. All that being said there is only one thing to do…pick US TO WIN THE WHOLE FUCKIN’ THING!
FYI: Right now Milan to win the league is +700
gillis15: Great points all around and I can’t disagree with anything you said. Last season I was way off with my pick for the Scudetto but I did pick Milan to finish second. So for this season…I think they win it and get their 2nd star! Fonseca is coming in and everything appears to be lining up. I don’t fear any other team except maybe Inter…a team that needs to have FFP sanctions slapped on them…plus it’s REALLY hard to repeat as champions.
So what’s the rest of the top 7 for you?
Michael Lisi: I think there’s the top 2 – Milan, Inter – then about a 12 point gap…then Juve, Atalanta…then a 6 point gap… then the next 5 or so.
1) Milan
2) Inter
3) Juve
4) Atalanta
5) Roma
6) Napoli
7) Fiorentina
gillis15: That’s very close to what I have. I’m not sure Conte makes it to year 2, LOL
1. Milan
2. Inter
3. Atalanta
4. Juve
5. Roma
6. Fiorentina
7. Napoli
Who do you have getting relegated?
Michael Lisi: Relegation? Seems like everyone is taking Venezia. Udinese seem to be a total mess for the third year in a row. Also I hate playing them so BUH BYE. Maybe Parma? Hard to say this early.
18) Parma?
19) Udinese
20) Venezia
gillis15: I’m taking Venezia, Empoli, and Cagliari as going down. No Claudio, no party for Cagliari.
18. Cagliari
19. Empoli
20. Venezia
MVPs, Breakouts, and Busts
Team MVP?
Michael Lisi: I think it’s between Leão and Morata though I’d have Pulisic as my dark horse. All 3 could have double digit goals and assists. Could you imagine if we win the league AND an American is Serie A MVP?
gillis15: Pulisic getting the MVP would be sick!
I think Leão blows up this year as I think he’s the biggest benefactor of Pulisic as the CAM. I think he’s 30 g/a in the league and might even clear 40 g/a across all competitions.
League MVP?
Michael Lisi: If we win the league I’m sure it’s Leão. If it’s Inter it’s probably Lautaro. Lazy…but probably accurate.
gillis15: Yeah, same.
Milan Breakout Player?
Michael Lisi: Milan breakout player…I think that’s gonna be Reijnders this year. Especially now that we have Fofana to soak up all the grunt work in the midfield. I could see him get up to say 7 goals and 7 assists and more importantly start really controlling games.
gillis15: My breakout player is going to be Chukwueze. I think he finds better balance with both feet and like Leão, will benefit immensely from Pulisic as the CAM.
League Breakout Player?
Michael Lisi: Good question. Reijnders will certainly be in the discussion. Another possibility is whoever takes the reins at Juve. There’s just so many newbies there. Same with Roma turning over a lot of their squad. Soule will be massive there. I also like Fabian at Bologna. The way is clear for him to have a huge impact. Between those 3 I think there might be the winner.
gillis15: I was going to go with Soule as well but I’m really curious about Dallinga on Bologna. I don’t know much about him but Bologna is in Champions League this season and I’m sure they want to try and extend the magic from last season. If they can, this young CF from the Netherlands could be why. So put me down with a flyer on him.
Milan Bust?
Michael Lisi: No sure if it’s really a busy or not but I think Calabria finally crushes and burns. Also I have a feeling Fonseca won’t have the patience for Tomori’s up and down form from last year or his occasional emotional outburst and stupid red cards.
I could see both being out of the XI by seasons end.
gillis15: I’m with you on trying to categorize a bust. Maybe down year is more appropriate? My top candidates for busts/down years are Calabria (of course) and RLC. I just don’t see a place for him to repeat his numbers especially if Fonseca gives Liberali some minutes at CAM.
League bust/down year candidate(s)?
Michael Lisi: I’m not sold on Roma or DeRossi at all. These people that think they are finishing top 4 will consider them to be a massive flop, when in reality they are rebuilding and will struggle against the better teams.
gillis15: They’ve brought in a lot of new players and the league has now seen how DDR’s Roma sets up and plays so that’ll impact their season. We saw last season the DDR bump wane after about 2-3 months. I still think they likely finish close or just in the top 4 because of the drop off elsewhere.
I don’t know that I can single out any specific player but I think any decent player who was on Napoli but doesn’t fit into Conte’s system is likely a candidate. Could see something similar for Juve and Motta.
Ok, we're winding down here. Champions League Questions
Milan make it out of the group/table?
Michael Lisi: Yup. Without a doubt.
gillis15: Agree. Being in pot 2 now…helps? Hard to know how things will go in this new format.
Ok. So they make it out of the group/table. How far do they get?
Michael Lisi: It’s a long ways off, but as of now I don’t see why we can’t knock out a team or two and get pretty far. Team form and who you draw is so important.
gillis15: The draw is the most important part if they don’t finish in the top 8 and don’t get that automatic bye into the round of 16. If they don’t get the bye then I expect a win or two in the knockouts. The team is deep enough and good enough to hit those milestones.
Finally, we're at the end. Any closing thoughts?
Michael Lisi: This is about 5 years now out of the Banter Era. We’ve traded worrying about how bad we suck and how top 4 is a fantasy for Scudetto hopes and dreaming about how deep of a CL run we might make. No trade backs that’s for sure. #ONWEGO
gillis15: I’m pretty optimistic despite some of the changes (Pioli) and likely coming changes (Kalulu). One of my concerns was that Gerry and Co. would bring in someone with a drastically different philosophy and formation and thus setting Milan back a year or two until they caught back up.
Fonseca appears to run a similar-enough scheme and is sticking with the 4-2-3-1, the formation I think best suits Milan’s two best players – Leao and Theo – and appears to be addressing issues we’ve noticed under Pioli that he didn’t attend to or tried and failed. Yes, I’m talking about Pulisic as the CAM, getting a DM, and improving the RB position so it was no longer a blatant liability. We saw Inter make a coaching change from Conte to Inzaghi and the change was seamless because they were very similar in tactics and approach. I’m hoping we see the same thing here and things do appear set up for success from the get-go.
Michael Lisi: We have the goals. The problem last year was sealing up the back. If Fonseca and these new pieces can do that, then we have every chance to compete for the Scudetto. No doubt in my mind.
Wrap Up
That was fun! Thanks for sticking with us, both now with this loooong preview, but especially over the years.
There are many Milan previews out there, a whole lot of them seemingly carbon-copies of each other, so we hope you all enjoyed this conversational preview. We wanted to share something that mimicked many of the conversations that yes, Lisi and I have, but that echo the same conversations you’re all having with fellow Milanisti and other football/soccer fans.
The season is just around the corner…can you sense it?…
FORZA MILAN
gillis
*Lisi covered the roster earlier this week if you’re curious about that and want a rundown