The stars have really aligned for me this past week, as Milan was the team who sent Mourinho packing (I’m still beaming!), but another thing has lined up as well and it gives me a chance to talk about it now.
After the first time Milan and Udinese played this season, I wrote about what I thought was ailing Milan as they had just lost 1-0 to them and had only won 1 of the previous 5 games (1-2-2). We were 14 games into the season across all competitions and coincidentally Milan has played 14 more as we head into this rematch today.
In that post match I discussed how Milan was struggling to get results and when they did it was labored more times than not mostly due to the lack of offensive productivity/contribution from the midfield and defense. This season’s numbers to that point for the midfield and defense were way off track compared to the previous 2 seasons. Like WAY off track. So what happened next? Well, Pioli went back to the 4-2-3-1 and completely turned things around. Below shows Milan’s first 14 games (along with the same from the previous 2 seasons) followed by Milan’s next 14 games this season and the differences are pretty stark:
Games 1-14
Games 15-28
The first thing that stands out when you compare games 1-14 and games 15-28 are the goals scored, as Milan are +12 in goal differential. The defense didn’t suffer as a result, as they only gave up 2 more goals but increased the goal differential to +13. Now I understand there were 2 Coppa Italia games in the last 14 games, but even if you take those away Milan still has one more win and 7 more goals scored in 2 fewer games compared to the first 14 games of the season. We also can’t forget how utterly depleted Milan has been due to injury, especially the CBs, in games 15-28 and yet still they’re holding their own defensively.
The second thing that stands out are the offensive contributions from the defense, mostly coming from Theo but Tomori has contributed as well (Tomori has 2 goals during this stretch). In the first 14 games Theo had 1 goal. That’s it. In the 14 games since he has 2 goals and 5 assists. That’s more than the entire defense those first 14 games. Clearly the switch to the 4-2-3-1 has gotten one of Milan’s most important offensive pieces involved and contributing.
The third thing that stands out is just how much the forwards are cooking. They have more goals and assists than at any point in the time frames looked at. Keep in mind this is with Leão missing some time AND in a slump. Still, this only reinforces how good this summer’s reinforcements have been (Pulisic mostly but Jovic providing lots of contributions as well) and a nod should be given to Giroud and how well he is still playing.
The last thing that stands out, and not necessarily for the best, is the midfield offensive contributions. Yes, the production is better in games 15-28 than they were in games 1-14 but keep in mind the guys playing have been less the DM and more the AM and yet they are still lagging behind the midfield of previous seasons. They have been better, especially Reijnders, so hopefully they continue to contribute more as the season progresses. Still, this only magnifies the quality and production lost from the position due to Kessie leaving, Tonali being sold, and Bennacer missing time.
To wrap up this part, the switch to the 4-2-3-1 has resulted in a stronger and more balanced Milan. It’s getting the best out of the talent on the team, they’re scoring more and yet haven’t sacrificed defensive integrity to do it. Pioli seems to have found some more magic fairy dust to sprinkle on our beloved Milan, let’s see if it can continue…
LAST FIVE
MILAN: WLWWW
UDINESE: DLWDD
FORMATIONS
MILAN (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Hernández, Gabbia, Kjær, Calabria (C); Reijnders, Adli; Leão, Loftus-Cheek, Pulisic; Giroud
Udinese (3-5-2): Okoye; Kristensen, Perez, Ferreira; Kamara, Lovric, Walace, Samardzic, Ebosele; Lucca, Pereyra (C)
TIME/LOCATION
TIME: 2:45pm EST/7:45pm GMT
PLACE: Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount+ and FuboTV here in the US of Aye and Canada, BeIn for our Aussie pals, ESPNPlay for our fellas in T&T, JioTV for our Indian leoni, and illegal streams that support dictators and oligarchs everywhere.
*Let us know if this needs updating*
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
So what’s the haps with this game? Well, Udinese proved to be a thorn in Milan’s side last time out and Becão wasn’t even there to do it! I think some payback is in order.
Udinese switched coaches after going winless in their first 9 games, earning only 6 points (0-6-3). They’ve gone 2-6-3 since, earning 12 points in 11 games including the win vs Milan on November 4th. So better but not great.
In the first meeting Milan looked absolutely toothless in attack but to so did Udinese. Milan was short on wingers that game and played a 4-4-2, as Leão, Pulisic, and Chukwueze were all unavailable and Okafor was still being worked back in from injury (he did play the whole second half but still didn’t look quite right). The difference ended up being Adli and the lazy penalty he gave up after coming on for an injured Krunic at the half. Adli has been better defensively since but it’s still the main thing keeping him from being a regular starter.
As for this game, Milan is mostly healthy except for the CBs and Bennacer and Chukwueze are still at AFCON. Gabbia and Kjær are starting and that keeps the hot-burning-star that is Theo at LB. The regular starting attack is also available and should be a handful for Udinese to contend with especially with Silvestri not starting, as he seems to find his best form against Milan. Pereyra got the PK and lone goal last time out but Samardzic is a solid player and will be the one to watch for Udinese.
Expect more of the same of late: both wingbacks pushing up, especially Theo, and Reijnders may even get on the board with all of the focus being on Leão, Pulisic, and even Giroud. Also, Leão will be itching to break that goose egg in league scoring since September, so don’t be surprised to see him nab a goal.
If you’re looking for Lisi’s predictions and betting advice, he shared that in the Round 21 Serie A Whip Around yesterday, so hop over there for that and insights to the remaining games this weekend.
If Milan want to keep their Scudetto hopes alive with Inter preoccupied and spending energy in the Supercoppa at the moment, taking all 3 points today is one step closer to that contention. Go get’em, boys!
Forza Milan
gillis