Went 7-3 last week including some good shout on goal scorers. Probably means this week will be crap BUT THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES!
We get a full slate on Friday and Saturday before the holiday. LOVE IT! We got BIG GAMES (Bologna/Atalanta), BIGGER GAMES (Roma/Napoli), and a whole bunch of other games (Hellas/Cagliari) that will settle a lot of debates near the relegation zone. We’re almost halfway there folks… IN THE MOST ENTERTAINING LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!!
Matchups
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EMPOLI V LAZIO Empoli have now played 6 straight one goal games. Four of those have been 1-0 or 1-1. Most of those have been decided in the last 20 minutes. This shapes up to be something similar. Lazio come in sitting in 11th having spent significant energy getting through CL qualification. Now they have to start getting results in the league. The best way to do that is to not give up goals. They are giving up less than one per game so that’s not the problem. It’s the scoring. 16 goals in 16 games is not gonna cut it. Last year they scored 60 so they are well off the pace. Expect the first team to start and them to go for it. I’m not sure it will matter. I expect this to be low scoring and mostly a nervy but ultimately quiet DRAW.
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SASSUOLO V GENOA You want goals? WE GOT GOALS! Sassuolo has featured 54 in their games. Genoa are a mess on the road. This should be straight forward. Berardi is second in the scoring race and feasts on bad teams. Stick with him getting on the board. They can’t defend so Gudmonsson might strike for Genoa. Take the goals. Take an over. Take the ML as SASSUOLO WINS
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MONZA V FIORENTINA Monza ceased to Monza against Milan. They have lost all 3 meetings against Milan now. Moving on. They are much better at home losing only once and conceding just 5 goals in 8. They are nearly a lock for a win or a draw at home. Colpani and Colombo both looked frisky against Milan always making Monza a threat. Fiorentina got a very important home win against Hellas. Not pretty but a big 3 points. They only have 1 loss in their last 8 and that was to Milan. They are finding ways to ‘suffer’ while still playing well. This has all the ear marks of a 1-1 DRAW
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SALERNITANA V MILAN The trappiest of trap games for a Milan side that still has a raft of injury concerns. Pioli is essentially making up new lineups as they go along. 4231? 433? 343? Give some kid his debut? Play a DM at LB? Why not! Whatever buttons Pioli presses seem to be working. Our old friend Pippo? Not so much. They were leading 1-0 at the half against Atalanta. Things looked good. Then it all fell apart. They conceded 4 in the second half and poor Dia looked like he was ready to quit. It’s bad. Look for Milan to come out just like they did against Monza. Press like crazy to get one early. Then keep pressing. And then press some more. Leão finally gets back on the board as MILAN WINS
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FROSINONE V JUVENTUS Frosinone are solid at home. They have leaned on that to remain well above the relegation zone. This is Juve though. There’s a reason they will stay right on Inter’s tails. Defense and more defense… and the occasional goal. Take the under and go do some Christmas shopping. It’s much better than watching this rock fight. Trust me. It’s ugly but JUVE WINS.
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BOLOGNA V ATALANTA Big BIG BIG matchup in the race for top 4. Bologna are coming off a 2-0 drubbing of Roma and have been rock solid at home (19 points in 8). The offense is coming alive at the right time too. That’s helping those early season draws turn into wins. Zirksee is fast becoming a stud and they have quality at every level. Atalanta come in on a ROLL. They have 11 goals in their last 3 games. Muriel is on one of his streaks. Might as well ride that if he starts. Atalanta have an important stretch here where they play Bologna, Lecce and Roma before the halfway mark. A nice run of form and they are right in the battle for top 4. If this game were last year I would go Atalanta but they haven’t been road warriors of late. I think we get a goal or 2 for each in a lively game that ends in a stalemate. DRAW
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TORINO V UDINESE Betting 101: Torino at homes means pain, suffering, a root canal and most certainly not a whole lot of goals. They have been showing a little more offense of late though. Combine that with Udinese who are scoring at a good clip lately we MIGHT see some goals? Yeah I’m not falling for it. Torino have 8 clean sheets for a reason. Udinese are still too up and down and Torino are starting to find their rhythm. Torino ML and the under at home might be boring but it should do. TORINO WINS
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HELLAS V CAGLIARI Pass….
Just kidding. Hellas have been slip sliding away ever since they opened the season 2-0. They have been scoring of late and they do always compete at home. Meanwhile Cagliari have been better and are now solidly in the relegation fight. Goals have been coming and they certainly have a flair for the dramatic. This is a game they can win. I’m certainly not betting it though. I’d stay away if I were you. Maybe a BTTS shout? Maybe wrapped around a Hellas DC? Eh. Save your money and watch what might be a pretty fun game. DRAW
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INTER V LECCE You know I love me some Lecce but this ain’t it. Inter hands my boys a nice fat 4-0 loss for Christmas. Bet on Inter and bet on goals as INTER WINS.
EDIT: Inter played 120 minutes yesterday fooling around and ultimately bowing out of the Coppa Italia to Bologna. Lautaro played 100 of those minutes before ultimately leaving with what appeared to be a groin issue. Strange plan for Inzaghi who usually is more prepared. It’s probably still an Inter win but much closer than previously expected.
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ROMA V NAPOLI My favorite 2 punching bags of late in a monumental showdown right before Christmas. Roma have their backs against it and Mourinho knows it. Their next 3 are Napoli, Juve and Atalanta before the halfway mark. Gonna be a lot of shithousing that is for sure. Lukaku will be back and will be lickin’ his chops when he sees that Napoli back line. Dybala is doubtful. Interestingly Roma have only beaten Napoli once at home in 8. Suppose that’s a byproduct of them being dreadful against top teams of late. With that in mind they have 3 points against the top 10 this year. A dreadful record. Meanwhle Napoli are slowly putting it together. They are also obviously looking forward to this game as they have rotated heavily for the midweek Coppa game. Osimhen has goals in back to back games and looks happy again. Be bold and consider Osimhen to score and a Napoli win. Be less bold and take BTTS and Napoli. Maybe parlay Lukaku and Osimhen to both score? Lots of fun options here. Roma is a mess and I will stick with that. NAPOLI WINS
DISCLAIMER: Napoli’s last 9 results are DLWLLLWWL. Oof.
Final Thoughts
A great slate of games before the holiday. Enjoy the footy and have a wonderful holiday everyone! MERRY CHRISTMAS!
#onwego
Enjoy the Calcio!
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Also check out everything the guys at Two Foot Talk do. Enjoy!