It’s been a fun and exciting tournament so far and the expansion to 48 teams and a 32-team knockout stage has mostly been met with joy and appreciation. There’s been some unevenness to it that will hopefully get ironed out (like ease of path for some teams compared to others) but overall I think it’s been a success and I’ve enjoyed it so far.
Now that we’re into the knockout stage, the stakes have risen and we’ve seen some gritty performances in the Round of 32 games. Today marks the start of the Round of 16 games and the intensity should only increase. So, what do we have in store? Let’s dive in.
Group Stage Roundup
As most of you know, I’ve been on vacation for the better part of 2 weeks and haven’t had a chance to post anything since the initial World Cup 2026 post. In that post I made a few predictions and wanted review them to see how I did. I won’t list everything out again (you can go to the previous post to see), but here’s how I performed:
- 10 out of 12 group winners correct (80%)
- 18 of out 24 top 2 correct (75%)
- 3 of the top 8 3rd place teams correct (37.5%)
- 27 of the 32 knockout stage teams correct (84.4%)
I’d give myself a B grade for that, right in line with the 84.4% of teams I picked correctly for the knockout. Solid but room for improvement.
As for the group stage itself, I liked the addition of the top 3rd placed teams fighting for 1 of the 8 knockout stage spots as it provided higher stakes, as well as more of them, particularly in the final group stage round of games. Most teams that had no shot at the top 2 of the group still had life for qualifying via the 3rd place criteria, and that is what you should want as a fan: as many meaningful games as possible.
Performance-wise, the top 3 teams (Argentina, Spain, and France) all still look like the top 3 teams. England (the 4th based on FIFA rankings), have looked good but not great, Portugal and Brazil have shown flashes but nothing that warrants including them any higher, and the remaining dark horses are still just that, dark horses.
I think the biggest shock of the teams who qualified for the knockouts were Cape Verde and Democratic Republic of the Congo, but not a lot of people had South Africa and Bosnia & Herzegovina qualifying either. Big moments for these countries and their people and it was fun to see their excitement.
The biggest disappointment of the group stage has to be Uruguay. Ranked in the top 20 in FIFA rankings (16th), them not making the expanded knockout stages is a disaster for 2-time World Cup winners. A team loaded with talent only mustered 3 goals scored in 2 draws and a loss. Not exactly right behind them but nonetheless a disappointment was South Korea. Ranked 25th, and in a group with 40th ranked Czechia and 60th South Africa, not qualifying for knockouts was disappointing.
The Teams
So, I wasn’t able to post anything before the knockout stage began but I would’ve missed on Germany and the Ivory Coast, and I was unsure about Switzerland vs Algeria but probably would’ve taken Switzerland. I would’ve taken Morocco (because of Brahim) over the Netherlands (although this was a complete toss up), and would’ve taken Portugal because of Leão (plus I’m a Ronaldo guy, over Messi). Think everything else was chalk.
A quick shout out to Cape Verde, DR Congo, and Australia, who were excellent in defeat especially Cape Verde and DR Congo.
As for the Round of 16 that begins today, here’s what I got:
- France over Paraguay
- Morocco over Canada
- Spain over Portugal
- USA over Belgium
- Brazil over Norway
- Mexico over England
- Argentina over Egypt
- Colombia over Switzerland
Before you say anything, yes I’m 100% going full homer by picking the US over Belgium and same basically applies to me picking Mexico over England (again, my mom is from Mexico). Part of my decision is based on home field advantage, especially Mexico, as the elevation and playing in the Azteca will be tough for England. As for the US, not having Balogun is going to be big and they’re going to have to get a big game from Christian Pulisic (I’ll talk more about Balogun in a minute).
I really want to pick Portugal over Spain, as Portugal is plenty talented enough, but they’re a bit disjointed and not able to decide if they want to be a wide-playing team or a team that builds through the midfield. They have quality in both areas but can’t seem to marry the two approaches, or at least get one to compliment the other. Spain on the other hand knows exactly who they are and are talented and well-oiled. Portugal can beat them, and I would love to see Rafael Leão be a big reason why, but it’s going to take a version of Portugal we just haven’t seen enough, at least consistently.
Red Cards, VAR, Ball-Chip Technology, and Hydration Breaks
I didn’t want to not address some of the controversies that have occurred so far in the World Cup.
The biggest one of these for me has been the inconsistent application of the rules, namely the non-red card for Lionel Messi and the red card for Folarin Balogun. I think both should have been red cards based on how the current rule is written. I’m ok with altering the rule, as the current rule does consider dangerous play but not intent to injure. Still, Balogun missing the Belgium game is big for the US and considering when Messi tried to take that dude’s leg off, he should have missed most of that game and the game after that. FIFA is leaving the door open to conspiracy theories and doubt in the outcome of matches, and that will spoil the good will of the game faster than almost anything.
The other things garnering a lot of attention has been VAR, and after the disallowed Croatian goal vs Portugal in the dying minutes, ball-chip technology. On VAR use, I think VAR is fine but the rules need to be updated. Offside is mostly fine and I don’t have strong opinions on the talk about potentially changing the Wenger Rule (the offensive player’s whole body must be past the last defender). I just want it consistently applied.
Fouls in the box absolutely have to be cleaned up and VAR should be utilized here and probably used more. Jockeying for position, fine. No issue there. Grabbing guys and preventing them from getting to a ball by dragging them down or holding their jerseys so they can’t run or jump to head the ball needs to be called. And I don’t buy the whole, it’s always been part of the game argument. Ok, so what. I don’t want someone who’s not as good at positioning or reading the play or flight of the ball being able to compensate by simply holding a dude. Make the defensive player actually play better rather than giving him an out. This is like when refs allow inferior teams to just hack their way into a result. Call the fouls and make them actually play the game.
Lastly on VAR, and in this specific case, ball chip technology and the Croatian disallowed goal. My perspective on technology, all technology in sports, is it’s a net positive and the thing I want most out of it is the correct call or outcome. I don’t get people who want it out and claim they’re willing to have missed calls like we used to have before VAR. What you’re basically saying is you’re willing to have errors determine the outcomes of games. I don’t want that under any condition. Yes, it’s true officials can still make mistakes (look at the Messi non-red card), but the number of them has decreased because of VAR, because of technology. That’s what I want as much as possible: the correct call so the play on the field or court or whatever is what determines winners and losers.
In the case of the disallowed Croatian goal, yes it was the slightest of touches, a glancing header, but the ball chip indicated there was a touch and unless it was malfunctioning, that’s still a touch and that means it counts. This really isn’t that complicated. Again, the main thing for me is that they apply the rules consistently (and they need to update rules to take advantage of the new technology).
Finally, hydration breaks. A big nothing burger. Like the change from 3 subs to 5 subs. I don’t care for ads during the breaks like we’re getting on the English broadcast here in the states (the Spanish broadcast by Telemundo sticks with the game), but these are small potatoes for me. On the universal application even in mild weather, I’m more and less indifferent on this too because I think consistent use is more important, and since hydration breaks are a de facto strategy session, I don’t mind teams regrouping. Every other sport has time outs and that’s basically what this is.
Wrap up
After being out and only able to comment from my phone, it feels good being able to post again after a 3 week-ish break. I should be able to get a post up for the next knockout round (Round of 8), but exciting matchups are in store and I can’t wait for the next round of games. Should be a blast!
gillis