Milan got all 3 points last week vs Lecce and are looking to win their 3rd straight for the first time since late September, which was the only stretch of the season where they pulled that off (they won 5 in row during that stretch). Can they get on a little hot streak and put pressure on Inter and Napoli to keep winning?…
MATCHDAY:
LAST FIVE
ROMA: WWLWW
MILAN: WDDWW
FORMATIONS
ROMA (3-4-2-1) *Predicted*: Svilar; Mancini (C), N’Dicka, Ghilardi; Celik, Cristante, Koné, Wesley; Dybala, Pellegrini; Malen
MILAN (3-5-2) *Predicted*: Maignan (C); Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlović; Saelemaekers, Ricci, Modrić, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leão
TIME/LOCATION
TIME: 2:45pm EST/7:45pm GMT
PLACE: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount+ and FuboTV here in the US of Aye (Spanish broadcast on Fox Deportes in the US); FuboTV and TLN for Canada; TNT in the UK (maybe?); ESPN for Mexico; DAZN for Germany, Austria, Switzerland; a website called GXR for our friends in India; and illegal streams that support dictators and oligarchs everywhere.
*Let us know if this needs updating or if you have additional broadcasters to add*
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
Milan is embarking on this 15-ish day stretch where they have 3 games and Inter and Napoli have 5, so it’s crucial they take advantage of the lighter schedule and get in front of Inter (or at least level) and create a bigger gap between them and Napoli. Also on the to-do list is getting some distance from 5th and playing currently 4th-in-the-table Roma is a great opportunity to do just that, as beating them today would put Milan up 10 points on Roma and Juventus for the 4th and 5th spots in the table and put their hold on a top 4 finish that much stronger. Inter and Napoli have big Champions League games this upcoming week, with Inter trying to get into the top 8 and earn a bye to the second round of the knockouts, and Napoli are just trying to qualify for the knockouts and will need a win at the minimum and possibly a multi-goal margin to get in on tiebreakers.
For Milan, they had some solid rotation last match so I would expect something of the usual first-team selection from Allegri we’ve seen all season. With Roma scoring at least 2 goals in 5 straight games, this could be lining up for one of Allegri’s sit-and-counter approaches especially with Roma at home. If was a betting man, this is what I would bet on especially since Milan beat Roma in the first meeting and Roma hasn’t had the offensive spark we’re used to seeing from a Gasperini side until this recent form. Does Gasperini continue to put the foot on the gas or does he throw Milan a curve ball?
Milan also has to weigh a possible formation change, as Saelemaekers is a maybe (but looks like he’s starting) and Füllkrug is now available and has been excellent leading the line. I personally would make the change to a back 4 and line up in a winger attacking formation but even if Allegri doesn’t want to risk Athekame at RW in place of Saelemaekers, then a 3-4-3 works as having a focal point in the attack is crucial. Additionally, sitting and countering works better with that traditional #9 holding up play especially if Leão is still lacking his burst due to his nagging groin injury and can’t outrun the defense for balls hit over the top. Lots of considerations but they’ve had all week to prepare so let’s see what Allegri does.
PREDICTION TIME:
Tough one to predict. On the road at the Stadio Olimpico, Roma just got Donyell Malen who scored on his debut last game (and who played well against Milan a few years ago with Dortmund in Champions League), and they seem to be playing better offensively. Conversely, FotMob said Roma are overperforming their expected points by almost 10 this season, so they’ve had some luck, some overperformance, and maybe a regression to the mean is coming. Speaking of maybes, maybe keep your betting money in your pocket this round. If I had to pick, this feels like a draw to me but bet at your own risk.
Forza Milan
gillis