As we come to the end of the last international break of 2025, and the last one until March 2026…and still the DUMBEST qualifying method for a world event…Milan get ready to take the pitch this Sunday in the first Derby della Madoninna of the season. But before we get to that, I wanted to discuss how the first third-ish of the season has gone as Massimiliano Allegri was brought in to straighten the ship and get Milan back into Europe. A wellness check of sorts…
How's it going so far?
This has been an interesting season so far, and despite my concerns and misgivings about some things, Allegri 2.0 has been mostly a success, especially concerning the Fonseca disaster and to a lesser degree, the Conceição time that followed. We kind of took things for granted under Pioli…well I didn’t, I wanted him to stay…and the numbers bear it out.
Pioli’s worst year during that stretch matches the number we’re all pretty happy with now, 22pts, or 2 points per match. This is a solid rate for sure and should guarantee a Champions League spot if they maintain it and with how this season is shaping up, it should keep them close to and in the Scudetto race. The goal differentials were mostly superior under Pioli and scoring almost a goal more per game while only conceding 1 or 2 more in the process. I’ll circle back to these differences in a little bit.
Coming out of the gates, Allegri had to bring together a lot of new additions and yet a lot of the starters were players we’ve all known and have seen, either last season or in seasons before in the case of Saelemaekers. But the midfield was strengthened significantly with the addition of Luka Modrić and Adrien Rabiot and I think it’s where most of the improvement started and spread out to the defense improving the most. This, combined with an absolutely torrid start by Christian Pulisic, had Milan winning even with the loss to Cremonese to start the season.
Milan dominated the midfield and ran off 5 straight wins (one of them a Coppa win) after that loss to Cremonese and drew with Juventus heading into the second international break. Did I mention they had 5 clean sheets in those first 8 games across all comps?
Then Milan had a mini-injury crisis with players getting hurt mostly while international duty and that has dominated the time since. Milan has won just 2 of their last 5, drawn the other 3, and have just one clean sheet. In various matchday and post match posts over this time, including a couple of times before, I’ve mused about what happens when other teams figure out what Allegri is trying to do and would we get the Allegri we saw at Juventus his second time at the helm there and not the one that had Milan hot to start the season.
What's working and not working?
So the big question as I see it is, was the downturn in quality and overall mediocre play a result of missing key players such as Rabiot and Pulisic who were major factors in the hot start, have teams begun to learn what Allegri is trying to do with this Milan, or is it a combination of the two?
I know some want to think that once the injured players get back things will get back on track but it’s not something I’m necessarily expecting. The play quality will improve, but will the whole be better? I think this is the Allegri part, along with teams adjusting, that has me the most worried.
Allegri is pretty stubborn with how he approaches the game. The formation might change, and he found something in the 3-man backline that many of us, including myself, wasn’t expecting. But he rarely gets off of a conservative gameplan, namely one that plays defense first…and second…and sometimes third, before he finally gets aggressive offensively.
An important thing to recognize is that a majority of the Milan goals have come not because Allegri has opened things up at times, it’s that Pulisic was on fire before getting injured and Leão has almost matched him when he returned from injury, picking up the slack. Pulisic has 8 goals/assists in 9 games (all comps), in 439 minutes, or a goal/assist even 54 minutes. Leão has 6 goals/assists in 8 games (all comps), in 469 minutes, or a goal/assist every 78 minutes. Allegri’s offense so far is really at the whim of an unsustainable rate of scoring mostly by 2 guys.
It’s that last part that worries me. Yes, defense is very important, even more so in Italy, and I’ve loved the improvement of Tomori, Gabbia, and Pavlović on top of Maignan’s return to form. But solid defense doesn’t mean you have to play conservative football. It means you have to play smart fundamental football. And sometimes smart fundamental football means you go after an opponent who can’t complete with you pound-for-pound as they say in the boxing/UFC world, offensively. And this is what might prevent them from winning a Scudetto that is very much in play this season because the league is showing a lot of parity in the top 6, top 7.
This has led to many dropped points against minnows already, and that is really unacceptable especially without European commitments. Don’t get me wrong, Pioli would frustratingly drop points to minnows too, but it was for completely different reasons. Teams would buckle down, like they’re doing against Allegri’s Milan, and Pioli would attack….and attack…and attack. Lacking individually creative players for most of his tenure (yes, there were some but not enough fighting on multiple fronts) meant breaking through was difficult. More times than not it worked and the numbers above bear that out (including the 4 straight top 4 finishes and a Scudetto).
What now?
I think Allegri has a couple of crucial things to figure out, with one thing being strongly influenced and impacted by the other: when to adjust the game plan specifically to be more aggressive offensively, and what has to change formationally to make that happen.
One thing you’ve all heard me say was sometimes a potent attack, or a dangerous player, can be it’s own form of defense and I think that applies here especially against teams in the bottom half of the table, especially the minnows. Allegri can keep his approach vs the better teams, like Pioli did, as those teams want to play football and both coaches can (or could) take advantage of that.
Here’s what I want to see Allegri and this Milan do. Maybe a little more sitting back and countering vs the better teams will help avoid those pesky draws like the one vs Juventus in early October. More importantly, particularly if we want that 20th Scudetto, it’s changing the approach he’s been using vs those lesser sides – the Cremoneses, the Pisas, the Parmas. Change the formation against these types of teams, use a 4-2-3-1 and move Modrić up into the #10 role or even use Rabiot there but get Leão, Pulisic, and Giménez on the pitch together. You could even play Pulisic as the #10 as Saelemaekers 2025 is more useful at RW than Saelemaekers 2022 was. But he needs more offensively oomph and I don’t think it necessarily means a decrease in defensive acuity.
So keep playing the tougher teams like he has been for the most part, but against these other sides: get the early goal, or at least score first, and get these teams out of their parked bus status, and then go for the throat and end it. We all know these teams get life the longer they’re in the game, especially at home, so kill it off early. This is what I think the key is but I’m not holding my breath that Allegri will make the adjustments.
Wrap up
Just a quick rundown of what we’ve seen so far this season, what I think has been working and not working and what might turn things around as Milan is kind of in a lull. The game vs weekend – the Derby della Madonnina – will surely have Milan fired up and ready to fight but we can’t lose sight of the disappointments and why they’re happening.
I think Milan has a good team, and I’ve been more impressed with Allegri than I thought I’d be, but there is a really opportunity to grab this league by the scruff of the neck and make it a one-team race for the Scudetto by March but really start to put teams on notice as early as January.
Lots of players are back and training in full and Milan is about as healthy as they’ve been all season. No better way to kick off a return to play than vs Inter and hopefully a hot streak to finish out the calendar year. Let’s see if the return of Rabiot and Pulisic are the salve many hope they are, and I hope we start to see a more tactically interesting Allegri so they take those just-as-important-points vs the minnows.
Derby on Sunday at 2:45pm EST/6:45pm GMT.
Forza Milan
gillis