Coppa Italia – Final: Milan v Bologna

I’ve gone on the record saying I would prefer no Europe if not Champions League because I value a Scudetto next season over Europa or Conference League play. Clearly not having any European responsibilities is no guarantee you can win the league but it’s got to help your chances if you have a talented team to begin with – which Milan certainly do. They’re certainly more talented than this season’s Napoli and they’re currently in the driver’s seat to win the Scudetto.

But…the chance to win a trophy is always exciting even one of lesser prestige. And I do like that. Winning begets winning and taking that into next season is worth something, especially if it means Conceição stays. With Bologna dropping down to 7th in the table after this past weekend, they’re all of the sudden needing to ensure they get some – any – European competition, so expect their best as well.

As for this game and what’s going to happen, this is a tough question to answer. In the first league meeting, Italiano had his guys sit back some, press vigorously as Milan reached the midfield, and then boot balls over the top to get behind the Milan defense…a defense that was leaking goals on the regular. In this last game, a game where Rafael Leão was unavailable, Italiano pressed with a very high line unconcerned Milan could burn them the other way. The first game Milan and Conceição couldn’t get it together in time but in the second it was Conceição who outmaneuvered Italiano to the tune of 3 goals in the final 17 minutes of the match. This comeback was fueled by a change in shape and vertical passing into the space behind Bologna, essentially doing to Bologna what Bologna did to Milan in the first meeting.

So a lot of what happens will depend most on how Conceição decides to field the team. Leão is almost certain to start, so does that mean Conceição plays a 3-4-3 instead of the 3-4-2-1 he used to start the previous game? I would as you need Leão as wide as possible. What about using the 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 he used after making the substitutions that fueled the comeback? Surely any back-4 formations out of the gate will give him…and us…some pause considering how Milan had been unable to maintain their defensive spine and therefore defensive integrity utilizing that shape. While I prefer a CAM formation, and Milan’s 3-4-3 does lack central playmaking ability, even I can’t argue how much it has shored them up defensively and been a worthy tradeoff. Lots to consider.

Ultimately, I think this turns into a true chess match, punch/counter-punch type of game. And I like that. Better than seeing roughly the same thing as we saw when playing just about every other top team. Like I loved all the Milan-Inter matches considering how Milan played but every game was largely the same with each team trying to perform what the other knew was coming, better. This is truly going to be two coaches trying to get the best of the other through their guile and tactical prowess. Should be fun.