With the international break ending in a couple of days for Serie A, I thought now would be a good time to start looking at the run out for the rest of the season. There’s only 9 league games left, folks, and there is a pile up of teams battling for 4th and this will surely be one of the more memorable stretch runs in recent history. I know I’m excited, I’m sure you are too.
With our matchday post coming Sunday, I thought I’d take this moment to go through the remaining schedules for those teams competing for the top 4 so we can get a sense of what Milan is facing and needing to overcome. Understanding what the other teams face will help put the proper context around what Milan needs to do these last 9 games. Of course it would be great if they just won all 9 but that’s a tall order even if they were playing well this season, which we all know they aren’t. But top 4 isn’t out of reach yet as you’ll see below.
We’ll skip the teams in the top 3 since there’s a little bit of gap. Just to show you how crazy things are, there is a 5 point gap between 3rd and 4th in the table and a 6 point gap between 4th and 9th. Needless to say but things are TIGHT.
Remaining Schedules
BOLOGNA
BOLOGNA
Current Table Position: 4th (53pts/1.83pts per game)
Remaining league schedule:
@Venezia (19th)
Napoli (2nd)
@Atalanta (3rd)
Inter (1st)
@Udinese (10th)
Juventus (5th)
@Milan (9th)
@Fiorentina (8th)
Genoa (12th)
Yikes. The team currently in 4th I think has the most difficult remaining schedule (and they have 2 Coppa games vs Empoli…which they should win but then they would have another game – the final). Yes, they were one of the hottest teams of late and before the international break but I would argue the timing of the break is likely to hurt their form, not help it. I also think they’ve been overperforming during this stretch and some regression is likely in store. As to how they’re performing against the top sides, many of which they have to face down the stretch, so far they’ve gone 4-4-2, which isn’t bad at all but not exactly stellar. With this in mind, I think it’s very possible they go 3-3-3, earning 12 points (1.33pts per game) and finishing at 65 points.
JUVENTUS
JUVENTUS
Current Table Position: 5th (52pts/1.79pts per game)
Remaining league schedule:
Genoa (12th)
@Roma (7th)
Lecce (16th)
@Parma (17th)
Monza (20th)
@Bologna (4th)
@Lazio (6th)
Udinese (10th)
@Venezia (19th)
Where to start. The team with probably the easiest schedule of the 6 competing for 4th just maybe (likely?) sabotaged their whole season by firing their coach during the international break. Yes, Motta is out. To make matters worse, they waited a whole week into the 2 week international break to fire Motta, thereby wasting a whole week that surely could’ve helped Igor Tudor get a head start on trying to turn the Juve ship around. Losing by a combined score of 7-0 the last 2 games will apparently make you do dumb sh*t. Anyway, I’m not really expecting a new coach bounce but their schedule is inviting. Let’s say they go 4-3-2 to wrap up, earning 15 points (1.67 pts per game), putting them at 67 points.
LAZIO
LAZIO
Current Table Position: 6th (51pts/1.76pts per game)
Remaining league schedule:
Torino (11th)
@Atalanta (3rd)
Roma(7th)
@Genoa (12th)
Parma (17th)
@Empoli (18th)
Juventus (4th)
@Inter (1st)
Lecce (16th)
Lazio also have a 2-legged Europa league affair with Bodø/Glimt to deal with in addition to the games listed above. Whereas the break was likely bad timing for Bologna, Lazio had just taken a 5-0 beating at the hands of Bologna and were probably happy to go home and lick their wounds. As for their prospects, they played pretty well to start the season through early December, going 16-4-2 over 22 games across all competitions. But, they’ve gone 7-6-6 over their last 19 games, including a 6-0 defeat to Inter and that 5-0 defeat to Bologna mentioned above, so not exactly lighting things up so far in the second half of the season. Their remaining schedule isn’t the most difficult of the 6 teams but I don’t really think they’re a top 4 club, maybe top 6 at best. So I’m thinking they probably go 3-3-3, earning 12 points (1.33pts per game) and finishing at 63 points.
ROMA
ROMA
Current Table Position: 7th (49pts/1.69pts per game)
Remaining league schedule:
@Lecce (16th)
Juventus (5th)
@Lazio (6th)
Hellas Verona (14th)
@Inter (1st)
Fiorentina (8th)
@Atalanta (3rd)
Milan (9th)
@Torino (11th)
Roma, a team I thought were probably left for dead with Daniele De Rossi, have been resurrected by Claudio Ranieri. Roma earlier in the season under De Rossi managed to go winless in 4 games to start the season, then went winless in 6 straight in November and December (under Ivan Juric and then Ranieri), but just recently completed a 6 game win streak before taking a loss to Atletico and getting bounced out of Europe. One thing that compounded the losing streaks and aided in the winning streak and overall better form since mid-December has been who they have played. Since that time they have played teams battling for top 4 (or in the top 4) a total of 4 times, going 1-3-0. Not terrible but not great either, although they were 0-1-5 vs the same teams before that. With 6 of the 9 remaining games vs top 4/Scudetto contenders, they face a similar uphill battle as Bologna. Because of this I think they drop off, going 3-2-4, earning 11 points (1.22pts per game) and finishing at 60 points.
FIORENTINA
FIORENTINA
Current Table Position: 8th (48pts/1.66pts per game)
Remaining league schedule:
Atalanta (3rd)
@Milan (9th)
Parma (17th)
@Cagliari (15th)
Empoli (18th)
@Roma (7th)
@Venezia (19th)
Bologna (4th)
@Udinese (10th)
Fiorentina had a really great stretch of play from late September through mid-December, going 13-2-1 across all competitions. They only faced top 4/Scudetto contenders 3 times during that stretch, winning all 3 but all 3 were at home. The played Atalanta right before that streak, losing, and in total have gone 3-1-5 in the other matches vs these same teams (so 6-1-5 total so far). Looking at their remaining schedule, which includes a 2-legged tie vs NK Celje in Conference League they have to navigate, they have 4 remaining games vs top teams, some very winnable games vs bottom of the table teams, and a tough season-ender at Udinese. I think they probably go something like 4-3-2, earning 15 points (1.67pts per game) and ending at 63 points for the season.
MILAN
MILAN
Current Table Position: 9th (47pts/1.62pts per game)
Remaining league schedule:
@Napoli (2nd)
Fiorentina (8th)
@Udinese (10th)
Atalanta (3rd)
Venezia (19th)
@Genoa (12th)
Bologna (4th)
@Roma (7th)
Monza (20th)
Yikes. The last team with a realistic chance to catch up also has one of the more difficult run outs to end the season. And, oh, it happens to be OUR TEAM. Milan so far has gone 1-4-6 vs top 4/Scudetto contenders, which doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence in how they might project out…at least at first.
All the teams we’ve talked about here have their own stories, explanations or reasons for why they’ve performed like they have so far this season. I don’t know of them and I believe at least some are probably accurate. What I do know is our team – Milan – and the struggles they’ve had all season. But I also know Milan is more talented than all these other teams in contention for the 4th Champions League spot AND ultimately you have to produce. Milan still have a chance to do that now.
The biggest thing that gives me confidence is the extra practice time. Since they’ve gotten a week between games they’ve won 2 in a row. They’ll mostly have that moving forward although they also have the 2-legged tie vs Inter in the Coppa…and I know it’s the Coppa but it’s Inter and it’ll be intense. We’ve already seen the extra practice benefit them by getting players back to solid fundamentals and improved form from Leão, Fofana, and even Thiaw. This has also led to better offensive execution, with 5 goals scored in the last 2 games whereas they only scored 1 goal in the 6 matches before that. They’re still leaking goals, but the unforced errors and howlers have largely evaporated so practice time will hopefully start to bear some fruit in this space as well.
Ultimately, I think the most important part moving forward is Conceição picking the correct lineup. Getting the correct pieces out there, yes in alignment with the tactics, will be the biggest factor. For me this means starting Leão, Theo, Pulisic, Reijnders, Maignan, and João Felix every game. I think Fofana is likely worthy of a start most times as is Walker, but Bondo and Jimenez would be fine too. I’m 60/40 on whether it’s Tammy Abraham out there leading the line or Giménez as both have their strengths. I do think Tammy does more of what’s needed with the other players around him and how Milan plays and is a more productive fit. The CB pairing doesn’t really matter to me, although I’d like some speed out there so I’d lean Tomori and someone else.
So, what does all this mean and how does Milan finish? Well, with my projections above I have Juventus at 67 points, Bologna at 65 points, Fiorentina and Lazio at 63 points, and Roma at 60 points. Milan would need 68 points since they would lose the head to head tiebreaker vs Juventus. That means they need 21 of the remaining 27 points, or 2.33pts per game to claim 4th. That breaks down to going 6-3-0 or 7-whatever-whatever down the stretch. Tall order? Yes. Impossible? No. I think they win at least 5 of the 9, and I’m even pretty confident they can get to 18 points. But 21 points?…
Final Thoughts
Yes, I dodged making a final prediction but the goal of this post was to layout what every top 4 contender has to navigate and leave it up to you if you think Milan can pull it off. They would clearly have to play at a level they haven’t played at all season BUT have the talent to do just that. I will say their chnaces aren’t zero, and really if I was a betting man I’d take a flyer on them.
What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.
Milan travel to Napoli on Sunday.
gillis