Another game in the books where Milan left the pitch, showered, traveled back to Milan, got home, and when they looked in the mirror they still saw who they lost to on the pitch. Because for god-knows how many times this season, Milan’s comedy of unforced errors was too much to overcome in game where all 3 points could’ve been huge.
So, let’s talk a little about the game and what we saw but we’ll spend more time on how this loss affects their chase for the top 4, but needless to say I, like many of you, am dejected.
Only about 5 minutes after kickoff, Torino tried to go over the top with a ball, Thiaw and Maignan failed to clearly communicate, Maignan ended up trying to clear it, smashed it but it hit off of Thiaw who was running towards him, and the ball ricocheted back into the Milan net for an own goal. This was actually Thiaws second own goal to Torino this season, as he did that in the opener as well. You’d have to look back in forever to find when someone last did that vs the same team in 2 separate games in the same season. Just terrible.
There were plenty of missed opportunities for Milan to tie it up, with both Milan and Torino to blame for that not coming to fruition until later in the second half. Reijnders had a beautiful shot that Milinkovic-Savic saved by sticking out his leg about thigh high at the last minute. Reijnders then completely butchered a break by not only picking the wrong pass but then over-hitting it. Pulisic missed a penalty, his first ever professional miss. What a time for that, amiright?!
By the time Reijnders tied it up with a beautiful volley after a save, 74 minutes had passed and not a terrible amount of time left to get the winner. Well they didn’t have to worry about that because after a foul at the top of the Milan box 2 minutes later, albeit soft foul, Thiaw spent more time jawing at the ref than standing in front of the ball to prevent a quick restart and Torino did indeed restart quickly. As if that wasn’t bad enough, the Torino player hits an absolute beaut (because of course he did) across the goal and just inside the far post to take back the lead. No other goal would be scored despite Pavlovic turning into our best attacking player the last quarter hour. Maybe not a huge shock there.
Well Milan did it again. They gave the game away. In just the last 4 games, Milan have had 2 howlers, a red card, and a missed penalty. If you go back to the last 8 games, they’ve had 3 howlers, 3 reds, and that missed penalty. In 2 of the 3 games during this stretch where they had neither they won. The other? A draw vs Inter where they probably should’ve won. We can also talk about goal scoring efficiency and generating offense, but keep in mind that these things generally even out over the course of season to where by the end of it there’s a couple of teams in the top half of the table that are 3-5 expected goals higher and some that are 3-5 lower. I mean those 3 howlers are worth 3 goals right there and sometimes a team is lucky to have 1 during the whole season.
I can’t stress enough how costly the errors have been. They’re bad enough but they’re even worse when it gifts the other team the lead, particularly a smaller side who would love nothing more than bottling it up even more than they originally planned. I was curious to see this round what the records were of the teams that scored first. Their record? 9-0-0. The other game was a 0-0 draw. The round before this? 7-1 (two 0-0 draws). The round before? 7-2-0 (and another 0-0 draw). Yes, there are come from behind victories but they’re rare. This idea that Milan should be good enough to overcome it is fantasy. It’s not how the game works in the pros. You gift away a lead and you’re almost certainly not going to win, and more times than not, you’re lucky to get a point.
So, these unforced errors have just completely derailed the team and there’s a sense among the players and coach, as evident by their body language, and us fans, that they just can’t catch a break. Some fans want to burn everything down but what’s new. The team can win 10 straight and they’d want to burn it down if they lost the game right after that streak.
Moving forward and what Milan have to do, well all things being equal I think most people, including myself, think overtaking Juve for 4th is the real issue and less so needing to get in front of Lazio and Fiorentina, although doing that is certainly not a certainty. If 70 points is the goal for 4th place, Milan need 29 out of the remaining 39 (they play their game in hand on Thursday). That averages out to 2.23 points per game. Very doable even if the team has given us very little confidence they can go on a sustained run.
The bigger issue might be that Juve has caught fire somewhat and have run off 4 straight wins in the league. To hit 70 points they need 21 out of 36 remaining points, or 1.75 points per game. That doesn’t seem very daunting but they were averaging 1.68 points per game before the current 4 game winning streak, and even with it they’re currently at 1.88 points per game. So not exactly a sure thing.
Juve is likely to drop points in the next game or two just because it’s just plain difficult to run 7-8-9 game win streaks in Serie A. Even the teams that did it earlier this season like Napoli, Atalanta, and Fiorentina, they’ve all had corresponding downward turns that evened things out. So anyone thinking Juve is going to run the table or close to it, I mean it’s possible, but not likely.
For this last third of the season (12 games for Juve/13 for Milan), Juve have 6 games remaining vs teams in the top half of the table, Milan have 8 (Bologna twice). Juve will almost certainly have a few draws in there (they still lead the league in them), but they’re not likely going to lose very many. So Milan have their work cut out for them, no doubt about it. Would I take a bet that they’ll pull it off? Yes. But I sure as hell wouldn’t feel very good about it.
What Happened in Serie A
Inter (1st) are back in first for the first time since after round 3 after they beat Genoa (12th) 1-0. Some of that time since they last sat at the top of the table they were down 3 points or less with a game in hand but they never technically occupied the top of the table. Their hold might be temporary as they’re only Serie A team remaining in Champions League not to mention possibly more games in the Coppa Italia after games this week. Those extra commitments can be the difference.
Napoli (2nd) continue their slide, losing 2-1 at Como (13th). They have now gone winless in 4 games, gaining just 3 out of their last possible 12 points. No wonder the top 3 spots have gotten tighter, separated by just 3 points. With rumors of a Conte-De Laurentiis breakup already brewing, don’t be surprised if Napoli ruin this great opportunity sans European commitments to win the league (we always have to be careful with rumors but with Conte, you don’t have to imagine very hard that it might be true).
Atalanta (3rd) put the beatdown on Empoli (18th), winning 5-0. This is the second 5-0 spot for Atalanta in the last 5 games, although they sandwiched those around 2 losses and a draw. Just 3 points back of Inter and a comparable goal differential, the Atalanta-Inter match on March 16th looms large. Inter won the first time they played 4-0, so Atalanta will have to work hard to turnaround that tiebreaker. Still, a win there and no European commitments, I would probably bet on them between them, Inter, and Napoli. Time will tell.
Juventus (4th), as mentioned in the editorial, won their 4th straight league game, beating Cagliari (15th) 1-0. Lazio (5th) and Fiorentina (6th) both dropped points, with Lazio drawing 0-0 at Venezia (19th) and Fiorentina losing 1-0 at Hellas Verona (14th). The last team other than Milan fighting for a European spot, Bologna (8th), they also dropped points, losing 2-0 at Parma (17th).
The only teams left to cover are a couple of midtable teams, with Roma (9th) beating Monza (20th) 4-0 and Udinese (10th) beating Lecce (16th) 1-0. Roma continues their upbeat form under Claudio Ranieri. Yes, I always bring up Ranieri but it’s honestly because I just love the guy. Players seem to love him and he always carries himself as a gentleman.
Now, ratings.
Player Ratings
Goal Keeping
MAIGNAN 5 – Has to do better than that howler. He had time for a few different options and ended up picking one of the worst. His counterpart was lights out and it reminded us how much a goalie can help you pull out points.
Goal Keeping Overall 5
Defense
JIMENEZ 7 – Didn’t miss Walker again. Doesn’t mean we don’t need Walker, but it does mean there’s not a huge dropoff at RB between the two even if they do play the position very differently.
THIAW 5 – Technically credited with the own goal, although one would be hard pressed to pin 100% of it on him. But the bitching at the ref while Torino quick started and scored was unacceptable. Not unacceptable like the howler like his this game and others over the last month, but just as much of a brain fart as those others.
PAVLOVIC 7.5 – The only guy getting higher than a 7 besides Reijnders. Just absolutely gives it all and while I liked him before, I’m sure I’m not the only one who has him climbing up their favorites list.
HERNÁNDEZ 6.5 – Solid if inconspicuous.
Defense Overall 6.5
Midfield
MUSAH 6 – Not bad really but another early unnecessary yellow and had me nervous another one was coming. Was surprised when he wasn’t pulled at halftime, then wasn’t surprised he got pulled about 6-7 minutes after the start of the second half.
REIJNDERS 7.5 – Really good for most of the match. Got robbed on that Milinkovic-Savic bullsh*t kick save but then found the goal late. He did completely butcher that fast break but have to keep in mind how good he was otherwise.
Midfield Overall 6.5
Forwards
PULISIC 6 – Did his usual stuff but with Milan in a rut, really could have used that penalty kick conversion. Doesn’t mean he’s a bad player (he’s been one of the best) but didn’t have his best game and it sucks. Could have used that uplift.
FELIX 6.5 – I know he’s not everyone’s favorite but I love watching him play. Yes, he can be wasteful, but he simply has a skillset no one else currently on the team has. One of those displays was in that early first half chance that ended up going to Giménez. Great flick give-and-go and nice through ball for that Giménez attempt.
LEÃO 6.5 – Not his best game and is really mostly this high because he did indeed earn Milan the PK that Pulisic ended up missing. So even not at his best he still impacts the game.
GIMÉNEZ 6.5 – Improving his movement around the box and his understanding with others. I like his overall progression. Let’s keep feeding him.
Forwards Overall 6.5
Subs
FOFANA 6 – Had probably his best shot on goal this whole season. And was better than his last few appearances.
ABRAHAM 6.5 – Put in a shift in the second half and keeps the CBs busy.
SOTTIL 6.5 – Does all the good things a winger should do. Solid again and am enjoying what he’s bringing, even if it isn’t flashy.
CAMARDA NA – He played.
CHUKWUEZE NA – He played.
Subs Overall 6.5
Coaching
CONCEIÇÃO 7 – Might be high for some but for those of you who want to blame him, what exactly are you blaming him for? He’s still only 15 games into his Milan tenure. He’s not a pushover so it’s not like the players are walking over him. He’s outperforming Fonseca still even with the last 2 games being losses. For me, he has continued to field mostly strong teams/lineups and the team has generally fought hard as evidenced by the come-from-behind wins under his stewardship. I can live with that. I think any unbiased observer would agree at worst he needs more time.
So again, what exactly makes him the wrong choice?…
Final Thoughts
Alright. Things are a little dour. No doubt about it. If Milan can somehow win Thursday vs Bologna and again this weekend vs Lazio, they’ll be in 5th place and just 5 points back of Juve regardless of what those other teams do. Let’s see what happens.
Forza Milan.
gillis
