Milan are out of Champions League. And they are out largely, no, almost entirely out by their own doing. Feyenoord, nor Dinamo Zagreb in the final league phase game – a win that could’ve propelled Milan to the round of 16 and just as importantly, a reprieve in the number of games on the schedule with the bye of round 32 – were the better team. I’m 100% sure of that. I’m also 100% sure Milan lost these last 3 Champions League games rather than the other team winning them.
But all of this is just window dressing, isn’t it? Regardless of why (we’ll dive into that shortly), Milan are out and are out far earlier than us, the players, the coach, and the organization all expected. And that is undoubtedly a failure.
So let’s dive into what I think are the major takeaways and where we go from here. I don’t doubt that many of you will disagree with what I’m going to say, but my hope is that I at least get you thinking about things in a slightly different way than you’re used to. That’s my goal, anyway. Where you land, either in the same spot or a new one, is obviously up to you.
Let’s get the game details out of the way up front.
Milan came out of the gate firing. Like literally. The aggressive start resulted in a corner in the very first minute and I think to everyone’s surprise, the ensuing short corner actually worked! Theo kicked it short to Pulisic, Pulisic maneuvered for a better angle, fired a cross to the far post, Thiaw headed it back across the face of goal, and Giménez got a glancing header to draw level on aggregate 1-1. Milan never generated another look quite as good for the rest of the half but were certainly on the front foot.
The ultra-attacking lineup was netting results and solid opportunities, ceding next to nothing going the other way. The only blemish really was Theo’s moronic and needless yellow in the first half where he grabbed and spun around a Feyenoord player by the jersey. Something certainly preceded it but replays never showed it (European broadcasts are terrible). Regardless, it doesn’t take away the decision to do it, which again, was dumb.
The second half started much the same as the first half. Milan was on the front foot and looked to be getting really close to their second goal to take the lead in the tie. Then it all fell apart. In the 51st minute, Theo, already sitting on that yellow, tried to reach a ball in the box after a give and go with Leão. The defender got there first, Theo took a dive, the ref carded him with his second yellow, and Milan were down a man still needing an additional goal to get through.
The team held for about 20 minutes, with Conceição making bizarre and almost certainly the wrong substitutions. Unfortunately, Feyenoord got the equalizer for the game and took the lead on aggregate in the 73rd minute when Julián Carranza split Pavlovic and Bartesaghi to get on the receiving end of cross to head home the goal from close range. Milan never really threatened after that, compounded by the lack of quality attacking options which were subbed off eariler.
So that is what happened and how we got to where we are. Digesting it and everything that was said here and on social about it is where things get…dicey.
I’m convinced now more than ever that 95% of the Milan fan base are pre-menopausal women. Moody. Super irritable. Suffer from hot flashes during a bad Milan spell. Definitely suffering from vaginal dryness. When things go bad a whole lot of you want to take your ball and go home or light a match and burn it all down. A few of you are very optimistic regardless, and while I’m sure many of you think I fall into that category, I’m more pragmatic about things. It’s why I stuck to the quality I saw in Brahim and Paqueta. It’s why I didn’t want Donnarumma to come back at the wages he wanted because replacing him wouldn’t be as tall an order to say replacing Leão. It’s why I didn’t and don’t care for RLC. It’s why I believed in Pioli because while he didn’t get off and running when he took over, there was tangle progress to be had and to wait out (Pioli had 22 points through 14 games/Conceição has 27 in 14).
I’m going to list out things that are all true:
– Conceição got the substitutions in this game completely wrong
– Milan are playing better football under Conceição than they were under Fonseca (1.93pts per game to 1.75)
– Theo is why Milan lost the 2nd leg vs Feyenoord
– Theo is one of the best LBs in the world even during this down season
– Mike Maignan’s howler in the 1st leg was just as detrimental as Theo’s red in this one
– Mike Maignan is one of the best keepers in Europe even during this down season
– Gabbia’s howler and Musah’s red were why Milan lost the game to Dinamo Zagreb
– Gabbia and Musah have been 2 of Milan’s better players all season
– Leão doesn’t contribute much defensively
– Leão is one of the game’s best left wingers
All of those things and others can be all be true. Many of the critiques I read here and on social media are bland vague statements that offer nothing. The team has no talent or don’t have it. What is, it? Tell me and if you know you should really try and make some money off of it because that shit is VALUABLE.
Other people one-side things, only cherry pick the bad. If you’re going to tell me how many goals Theo has conceded then I need context for why the number you’re going to spit out is a bad one. If you say he’s directly responsible for conceding 8 goals this season, is that 8 high? Low? What does the average LB concede to this point in the season? 6? 3? How about the best defensive LBs, how many do they give up? Offensively we can quantify how much all of these LBs contribute because those are tracked and Theo is miles better than everyone else in Serie A and most of Europe, and it’s not even really close. Clearly Theo isn’t the best defending LB in the world, but it’s also not why he’s worth so much both in transfer value and to the team.
Everything I just said about Theo is true and it also true that he lost this game. We all know about Theo’s red cards and diving. I hate it AND we all know how many fouls and penalties he’s drawn by doing that too. It’s a double-edged sword for sure. I don’t think this dive was especially egregious (it was still clearly a dive) but like Tomori’s second yellow against Empoli or Musah’s second yellow against Dinamo, when you’re on a yellow you’re taking the game out of your hands and giving it to the ref. So doing risky things is on you. That’s the tradeoff you made by getting the first yellow.
Do I wish rules of the game were different? Absolutely. They are far outdated and conform to game no longer being played. Cards are too consequential to be given at the volume and the reason they are being given for and are therefore disproportional and impact the outcome of the game way too often. You know what else? They are the rules and the players need to play the game with the rules as they are and not as they (or we) wish them to be. I think we’re likely going to see changes in the coming years (this has already been reported) but until then, the players are responsible for following them.
Finally, Conceição and Milan and management and expectations. Far too many of fans are living in I don’t know what world. For some there is an expectation that Milan just be the best, regardless of any real-world constraints. A lot of these fans came of age when Berlusconi was just buying all the best players without a care in the world. The team bled money hand over fist, but that didn’t matter. The rules were the rules and allowed all of it. Milan were the best on the pitch but I wouldn’t say they were the best organization much like Walmart isn’t the best retailer. They’re just massive with deep coffers. Those days are over.
I don’t love a lot of what this Cardinale management has done so far. Loyal readers know how I feel about Maldini and Pioli. But in line with the previous paragraph, times have changed but mentalities have not. I see people clowning Milan for setting up new partnerships and not focusing on the football as if one isn’t linked to the other. Milan spent last summer and this winter BECAUSE they’re running the books properly. Inter is starting to learn this same lesson and I’ve seen their fanbase revolt as well.
For others they have certain players they despise and are quick to jump on them when they mess up. Theo and Leão are the obvious examples but there are others. They cherry pick like I mentioned earlier, and either don’t know or are trying to gaslight everyone into believing _____ is terrible because of _____ reasons, conveniently ignoring the full picture because it weakens their argument. If you don’t like Theo, then just say that. Yes, he’s cost Milan games but he’s won more than he’s lost. How do I know that? Well, aside from offensive numbers you’d have to look really hard to find elsewhere, Milan have been a perennial top 4 club the last 4+ years and he’s been a major reason why, especially with Milan lacking quality depth.
Same with Leão. If you like more traditional wingers then just say that. Stop bitching about his defense because it’s not really relevant to his worth. Like Theo, he’s outperformed every other winger in Serie A the last 4+ years offensively, including winning the MVP and being the lynchpin to a Scudetto winner. HE’S NOT THE PROBLEM. If you want Milan to play a different way then that’s going to take more of a rebuild which means down seasons. Are you ready and willing to endure that and not bitch?
If you don’t like Conceição because he’s not your kind of coach, ok. But don’t say he’s not the guy because of what’s happened on the pitch under him. He’s performing well all things considered and he’s had it far more difficult but is out performing Fonseca. His league performance would have Milan at 48 points had he been in charge for the whole season to this point, which would have put them in 4th with a game in hand, 2 points ahead of Juve and Lazio (Fonseca’s pace would see Milan at 38 points right now with a game in hand, 8 points back). So the modest improvement matters and this is the lens I view it through. We need more time and a larger sample size to truly evaluate. I heard many of the same critiques about him as I heard many of you say about Pioli. Let’s wait until the end of the year, then go from there.
The team is talented. Sometimes talented teams don’t perform well. I want to see the team make tweaks, modifications, game plan better, execute. Have a plan. If you have a well-reasoned critique, share it. I’d love to hear it. I certainly don’t have all the answers. But for the love of god, stop with the gaslighting. Stop with the just buy all the best players as a solution for, well everything. Same with a high salary coach. Stop with we used to be a proper club nonsense. It’s exhausting.
Player Ratings
Goal Keeping
MAIGNAN 6.5 – The header Feyenoord scored was from point blank and would’ve taken a miracle for Mike to stop.
Goal Keeping Overall 6.5
Defense
WALKER 7 – I thought he did really well. Love those diagonal runs even if no one passed it to him. The motion demanded attention from the defense and needs to keep happening.
THIAW 7.5 – I thought he did EXCELLENT. Not sure what got into him with his passing and overall play but wow. Looks like a new player.
PAVLOVIC 7.5 – The man puts in a shift. Love it.
HERNÁNDEZ 1 – Was having a really good game until the red (the first yellow was stupid too). Like Musah vs Dinamo, you just can’t put your team in that position. For those of you wondering, he did apologize to, well, everyone.
Overall Defense 6
Midfield
MUSAH 7 – There were a couple of times I wish he had more of an offensive toolkit. But the kid works hard and has continued to play well since the red vs Dinamo
REIJNDERS 6.5 – Did a really good job contributing to the build up all game until the Theo red.
Midfield Overall 6.5
Forwards
PULISIC 6.5 – Was much more involved this game than the first leg. Shouldn’t have come off.
FELIX 6.5 – Was better this game than the first leg like Pulisic, but wasn’t the best offensive player on the day
LEÃO 7 – Looked really good and was smoking Read all game. Then Theo’s red changed everything.
GIMÉNEZ 8 – The goal was great but he was much better at moving around and moving around more in the 18 yard box. He earned the quick corner that led to his goal and was overall just very good. For those of you wondering why he came off, Conceição said after the game he’s been battling an abductor injury and he was trying to management it.
Forwards Overall 7.5
Subs
BARTESAGHI 6.5 – Did ok. Probably could’ve done a little better on the goal but he was also trying to cover a Feyenoord player behind him who was also far post. Just a tough position down a man.
FOFANA 6 – Was brought in to run and cover and did that.
CHUKWUEZE NA – Put in the effort. Didn’t amount to much but it wasn’t for a lack of trying.
ABRAHAM NA – See above.
Subs Overall 6
Coaching
CONCEIÇÃO 5 – Was on track for a 8 rating and then the substitutions just brought this all down. To his credit, he took all the blame and protected his players. I love that. The anti-Mourinho. So while that 5 rating you see might be high, his doing that factored in as well.
As for the specifics, the gameplan and lineup was solid. All the pieces were working. Then…wait for it…Theo’s red changed everything. I don’t think Milan would have pulled it off either way once they were down to 10 men. The deck was stacked against them. But the substitutions were poor and put the target on his back for everyone who doesn’t like him. Essentially the same song and dance as Theo and Leão.
Final Thoughts
There was a lot to say so this post is a little long in the tooth. But as we wrap up I think it’s important to remember that with how these seasons are constructed there are lots of goals and things to play for still. Top 4 is within reach even if Atalanta and Juventus also got knocked out of Champions League this round. All 3 teams were battling the same conditions before and they will continue to moving forward. It’s going to be interesting. I still think Milan is the better team between the 3 (and I think they’re better than Lazio and Fiorentina).
So put down the gasoline and stop soaking yourself in it. And for god’s sake put down the lighter. This loss sucks and it sucks because Milan lost rather than the other team winning. It’s a shitty thing to have to swallow. But it’s a talented team and they need to continue to improve. I think they will especially once they get a little bit of time between games. I still don’t care about the Coppa Italia but that’s also still out there. Keep the faith.
Forza Milan
gillis
