Matchday 24: Empoli v Milan

There’s been inconsistencies about who’s going to start and what the formation might be heading into this game. As you probably saw above, FotMob has what has mostly been Conceição’s starting lineup and formation (4-3-3) the last 2-3 games. Looks like the same lineup as last time but with Pulisic and Leão both resting.

Of course some were quick to claim that Leão isn’t starting because Conceição doesn’t like him or is displeased with him or mad because he wants him to do more on defense. And then I saw that he is nursing an ankle injury, nothing serious, and that he might not start. I don’t believe any of the more nebulous claims and think he’s just banged up (and Feyenoord looms midweek). Should that change, I can address it at that time.

As for Empoli, they are not on a good run of form at the moment. I’ve quipped elsewhere that they were sitting pretty relegation-wise with 19 points after 15 rounds but after I said that they’ve gone 0-2-6. Sitting at 21 points after 23 rounds is sitting less pretty and they need to right the ship. They’re probably due for a result but let’s hope that waits a week.

Finally, talking with Lisi this week we were chatting about 4th place and what Milan needs to get there. For reference sake, they were in 8th to start the round, 7 points back of 4th place Fiorentina but with a game in hand. If they are to reach the roughly 70-point mark that has been common to 4th place, then they need 35 out of the next 48 points, or 2.2 points per game (2.3-2.5 points per game is more and less the Scudetto rate). Not a lot of room for error there (remember all those points Fonseca pissed away?…). Things become less dire as we dig in a little.

While 70 points has been a solid estimate for 4th, here’s how the last 10 years have gone including where this season is projected: 

2024-25: 69 (current pace)
2023-24: 69
2022-23: 70
2021-22: 70
2020-21: 78
2019-20: 78
2018-19: 69
2017-18: 72
2016-17: 72
2015-16: 67

Clearly there was some ebb and flow the last 10 years but the last 4 including this one show a sustained decrease and flattening of the curve. Indeed, when looking at the last 4 years including this one, the average is 69.5, whereas the 6 years before that averaged to 72.7 and with a much wider variance. Financial Fair Play has been around since 2010 but ramped up the rules and enforcement – announced in 2021 and taking effect in 2022 – have clearly begun to have an effect. I want them to go even further but parity is starting to rear its beautiful head so I’ll take it.

This is all to say that I’m skeptical the threshold for 4th place will be 70 points this season, with 67-70 being the likely range (I even think 65 is in play – for reference in 2014-15 it was 64 so it does happen). The fact is that things have been very close throughout the table all season. I mean, check out the relegation battle, 3 points separating 13th to 18th. Things are going to be tight.

Why is this important? Milan needing 35/48 points to finish is daunting, 32/48 less so. Aside from Juve, Milan still plays the other 4th place contenders for the return match, in the case of Bologna, twice. The way I like to think of it is, Milan just has to beat these teams when they play and be about a win better than however they perform. Do that and they’ll get the job done. But Empoli first.