Matchday 20: Milan v Cagliari

This game has all the markers of a let down, a trap game if you will, and Milan is going to have to be focused to make sure they walk out of the San Siro with all 3 points. A strong starting lineup will help that and the predicted lineup is indeed pointing in that direction. So, seems clear to me Conceição knows this and isn’t going to leave anything to chance.

As for the predicted lineup, FotMob basically has it the same as the Supercoppa final with only Calabria in for Royal, who is out due to accumulation. I would have started Jimenez but I’d be surprised if Calabria plays all 90 minutes so hopefully Jimenez-for-Calabria will be the sub we see at some point. FotMob also has Morata up top and the only difference I’ve seen in the reporting was that Abraham will start. While I’m fine with Morata I would lean Abraham as I think he has an edge to him right now, more than usual, and wants to stay. That kind of motivation has shown in his goal/assist every 90 minutes or so average. Good bang for the buck there.

Tactics wise, I talked a lot about what we saw from Conceição in the Supercoppa (and essentially after the first 45 minutes against Juventus) and I’m hoping we see a very similar wide attack that exploits the wings and stretches the defense. While I think Cagliari will play more conservatively than the 3-3 draw they secured at home (and remember the couple of wonder-strikes they had?…), the San Siro will likely reign in that same level of aggressiveness. If they do open up in their counterattack with a full onslaught of counter attackers like the first meeting, Conceição’s approach in the second half in the Supercoppa would likely produce 4-5 goals against this Cagliari side. To add to this potential, as Lisi said in his Serie A Whip Around, “Milan’s last 13 home games against Cagliari they have 12 wins and a draw and have outscored them 37-7.”

One last thing: it appears Conceição is sticking with the 4-2-3-1 and you know I love that formation with this squad. Expect to see Leão, Theo, and Pulisic all continue to excel while Reijnders and Fofana, who both thrived under Fonseca’s system, become more familiar with what Conceição wants from them. While I’d rather have everyone firing on all cylinders, a Reijnders/Fofana thriving didn’t result in a Milan thriving, whereas we’ve all seen a Leão/Theo thrive and carry Milan right along with them. I think this approach, like the approach we saw in the Supercoppa final, will eventually get everyone thriving and excelling, and when that happens, maybe Milan can get on one of those 7-8-9 game winning streaks in the league we’ve already seen multiple teams pull off. If that happens, then anything is still possible in this season.