Supercoppa Italia – Final: Inter v Milan

After a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Juventus in the Supercoppa Italia semifinal, Milan face off against Inter, who dispatched Atalanta 2-0 in their semifinal match. Everything is pointing in Inter’s direction, as they have the deepest and most talented team in Serie A. You might even say it’s a team money…can’t…buy…(get it?…because they defaulted and still owe half a billion euros to investors in a couple of years…may the FFP gods reap down vengeance and furious anger in the not too distant future!).

Still, as Fonseca proved earlier this season, they are beatable and Milan just need a little bit of that same magic. To help their cause, Leão is available on the bench and I would anticipate seeing him at some point. As for the starting lineup, the only change player-wise is Musah in for Bennacer. I think this is the right move but I think more importantly is there appears to be a change in the formation, going from the 4-3-3 Conceição started with vs Juventus to a 4-2-3-1.

Loyal readers know this is my preferred formation based on the talent on the team, specifically their two biggest stars, Leão and Theo Hernández, as it gives them the room to do what they do best. Moreover, the 4-3-3 was toothless last game, and while some tweaks would likely improve it, why stick with it if you’ll have to abandon it once Leão is back in the starting lineup (or it should be abandoned).

As for what happens here, we don’t have a great sense of what Conceição is going to do tactically. Even trying to use previous approaches is tricky because the talent profile from his previous teams is different. Earlier this season Fonseca used a 4-4-2/4-2-4 formation to help counter Inter’s numbers in the midfield, which nullified Barella, Calhanoglu, and Mkhitaryan and aside from Dimarco’s goal, Milan was the better offensive team. So whatever the formation is on paper, when Milan don’t have the ball they’re going to need to drop that extra body in the midfield to even out the numbers. Not playing a super high line should also help as Inter want to get out running.

I’m at a little bit of a loss as to what Conceição is going to do in attack. The more vertical approach helped against Juventus but Inter don’t usually sit that high. Getting Reijnders more advanced is a must and I’d like to see Fofana back to his pseudo deep-lying-playmaker role, slotting in more vertical and diagonal passes than Bennacer did last game. Morata is solid in link up play so utilizing that as a kick starter to the attack, and Reijnders and Pulisic making runs off of him, should also help. Either way, expect a battle as Inter will want payback for their loss in September.