Finally it’s Round 19 in serie A, the halfway point! Or is it? With a few cancellations and now the galactically silly midyear SuperCoppa tourney the table is gonna look a little wonky. Only 7 fixtures this week but have no fear! We still have have the Rome Derby and a VERY tasty top toer matchup as Napoli travel north to play Fiorentina in a top tier battle. It’s yet another spectacular week of games in THE BEST LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!
Matchups
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VENEZIA V EMPOLI Every time you think EDF is dead the guy comes back. Fuck Lazarus. This guy has more lives that Wile E Coyote. To be fair he’s got a decent squad. Busio is a real leader in the midfield and they are scoring pretty well. Last week they were just 12 minutes away from keeping a clean sheet away to Napoli as well. As mentioned here several times, Empoli are in their usual midyear slump. Honestly at this point you can set your watch to it. The defense is struggling. After giving up just 16 goals in the first 16 rounds they have given up 5 in 2. They are scoring better as Colombo and Esposito pose a nice threat with some help from Gyasi and Henderson. Feels like an open one here as these 2 have gone over in 8 of their last 10 combined. Or is it? 10 rounds ago I would have said an under. If Empoli are gonna are gonna keep their heads above water defending is the key. Venezia DC and under at home feels right. Check the Busio shot number. Pohjanpolo SOT should be nice. Same with SOT for Esposito. DRAW
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FIORENTINA V NAPOLI Big showdown! Imporatnt game here as La Viola have been on a bit of a bender. If not for Sottil’s late leveler at Juve last week they would have dropped 3 in a row. The goals are still coming but the D is struggling. Very much in true Palladino form. When you hire him you know what you are getting though. Conte is very much the same. You know what you are getting. In his case it’s ugly. Ugly wins and ugly draws usually though. Not many losses. Napoli will come and endeavor to sit. That makes you like an Adli shot. A Sottil SOT too if he starts. Lots of corners too. Going the other way if Kvara is flying I love a counter attacking goals for him. Likely from an assist from McTominay. Feels like a 1-1 game all the way. Let’s go with that. DRAW
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HELLAS V UDINESE Goals goals goals! Hellas is always gonna be open. Udinese of late can’t help but be the same way. Suslov and Tengstedt are tasty parlay options for Hellas. Sarr has also scored in 2 of 3 for them. Parlay the 3 for shots perhaps? Same with the usual suspects Thauvin and Lucca for Udinese. Not the big name Saturday night game you might have wanted, but it’s the entertaining game you NEED. Love BTTS here. Certainly over. Maybe over 3.5? Gotta be 2-2 or probably 3-2 to someone in the end. Who? That’s the rub. I’ll say 2-2 DRAW
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MONZA V CAGLIARI Monza almost Monza’d again last week away to Parma. Only a 98th minute goal soured Bochetti’s debut. An early goal denied by VAR didn’t help either. Same with an AWFUL VAR aided PK and red card decision. I feel like they get that new manager bounce in this one though. Cagliari should be perfect fodder for such Milocchio madness. Maldini SOT. Maybe a goal. With Cagliari you know the Mina shot is coming. MONZA WINS
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LECCE V GENOA Giampaolo v Viera! Who would have thought this would look so tasty? Giampaolo started good but the honeymoon is already over it seems. Last week’s loss to Como was brutal. No matter the heroics of Falcone they just can’t keep people out. Meanwhile Genoa have just 1 loss in 8 under Viera and are unbeaten on the road. Smells like a 1-1 draw. Maybe we see more goals than that? Maybe not. Love a 0-0 halftime. More goals in the second half for sure. Love the under here. DRAW
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TORINO V HELLAS Torino finally score some goals and of course they draw 2-2. Story of their season really. Their HISTORY to be honest. It’s a perfect recipe for finishing anywhere from 9th to 11th. Let’s see if Coco is back at CB this week. Oddly they moved him wide left the last game and it didn’t go well. If he’s back in his regular spot I love an ugly under. They will sit. Parma will attack. No doubt there. They’ve been a mess on the road though. Then again Torino are a REAL MESS at home. Tough to pick a result here but I love an under. Probably another 0-0 halftime game. Really wanna lean Torino here but I’ll go with a DRAW.
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ROMA V LAZIO ROME DERBY! Road team has won this game exactly in the last 16 meetings…ONCE! So we aren’t taking Lazio that’s for sure. Also the last 5 meetings have all finished with 1 goal or less. Now when I check with my resident analytics guy he is strongly urging a Lazio DC and over 1.5 at plus money. I could see that. 1-1 seems very plausible here. 2-2 isn’t impossible. Love the possibility of Dybala PK. Same with over 1.5 SOT for him. He’s gonna be a mad dog. This game starts slow, flatters to deceive for a while then ultimately ends in a 1-1 DRAW
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BOLOGNA V HELLAS You know these Monday night games are always tasty. Bologna are ROLLING. Expect that to continue here. They still have just 2 league losses all year and are unbeaten at home. The defense is rock solid and the midfield is getting better every week. Love me some Pobega shots here. Hellas will come out and play so this should be good. I still like Bologna though. Over? BTTS? Hmmm. Hard to say. I like Bologna to get a win here and keep the pressure up on the top 6. With a game in hand and exiting Europe soon they are in excellent shape to push for top 4. BOLOGNA WINS
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MILAN V ROMA Stay tuned for the matchday post for vibes and predictions!
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COMO V LECCE YUCK. I guess we have to have a dud every week, huh? Silver lining here is neither team can defend. Go with what we know here. Over? Yup. BTTS? Yup. Cutrone and Krstovic both with a SOT? Maybe. Krstovic for sure. Berisha a nice shout too. Como love giving up bangers from distance. I think Falcone does enough and Lecce at least get a draw. Lecce DC and over 1.5 probably enough to get you a good number. DRAW
Final Thoughts
TREND OF THE WEEK
Last week 8 of 10 games in Italy had more goals in the second half than the first. The week before was 7 out of 10. Something to keep in mind when putting together your parlays.
A short week of action but no matter! We will embrace it just like every other round of Calcio. There is no such thing as a poor round of fixtures as long as they take place in the BEST DAMN LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!!!
Forza Milan
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Also follow my boy Burroaks77 on Twitter. Guy knows ball and always has great tips. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Enjoy the calcio!