ROUND 12! Big midweek European fixtures followed by BIGGER league matchups. Strap on your big boy pants and get ready to WHIP IT AROOOOUUUUND!!!!!!!!!!
Matchups
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GENOA V COMO You smell that smelly smell? The one that smells so smelly? That’s Como. One point in five…while getting outscored 11-3 along the way. Oof. Now it’s a road trip to Genoa who are FINALLY showing some signs of life. All it took was one win to escape the relegation zone. Another win and they will be top 12. Crazy year, kids. Pinamonti is the danger man. Balotelli the wild card. Thorsby the sharpest elbows in the league. Como are really struggling to score. They also have a 70 year old keeper. Roll with Genoa and the momentum but also consider an under. This one will be cagey. Pinamonti AGS worth a shout. I’ll go out on a limb and say GENOA WINS
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LECCE V EMPOLI Friday matinee! These two have combined for the under in 8 of 11. Don’t question that, just go with it. Another cagey game here. Both keepers will be fantastic and neither team has much in the way of scoring. I like an under and an Empoli result. I also like Krstovic shots. DRAW
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VENEZIA V PARMA The third of three games to start the week that feature teams in the bottm half of the table. Parma’s early season heroics are now on life support after 4 straight draws and a late loss to Genoa. Man is still the Man but man does he need a hand. Injuries aren’t helping. Fortunately Venezia stink too. Having a late equalizer chalked off against Inter really hurt. EDF was NOT happy. I think that momentum carries them here. Parma are staggering. Thinking we see some goals as EDF’s men get a much needed victory. VENEZIA WINS
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CAGLIARI V MILAN Tune in to the matchday post on saturday!
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JUVENTUS V TORINO Torino haven’t won at Juve since I was a freshmen in college. They’ve lost 6 of 7. They also will likely be without Duvan Zapata and Che Adams. They are defending better but can’t score. Juve are coming off a midweek CL game but should still start the starters as international break looms. This smells of a 1-0 or 2-0 Juve win. Gamble on Juve winning the first half. Maybe even predict 1-0 at half. Also consider the a Juve win and the under. It may not be pretty but JUVE WINS
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ATALANTA V UDINESE Atalanta haven’t lost to Udinese in 7 years. Over that period they have outscored them 17-4. Depstite Atalanta playing midweek I expect more of the same. Retegui and Lookman are on FIRE. If they start, play them. Honestly play any Atalanta attacker. This could get ugly. I have a feeling by the time you wake up Sunday Atalanta are already up 2-0. Look around for some nice numbers but anything involving an Atalanta win and an over is gonna serve you well. Also take a look at Okoye saves. ATALANTA WINS
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FIORENTINA V HELLAS Fiorentina now have 8 wins and a draw in their last 9. This is why I wanted Palladino folks. He’s gonna lean into what your team does best (SCORE) while tweaking what was previously a problem, the defense. During that streak they have won games 5-2 and 6-1 and also 1-0 twice. They have raced into the top 4 and with a win here and the Conte Derby this week they could very well get up to 2nd. They’ve scored 22 in the league while Hellas have conceded 24. Don’t question it. Expect goals. Take the over and probably BTTS. Maybe even over 3.5? Only danger here is Hellas can score too. In what could be the most entertaining game of the weekend, FIORENTINA WINS
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ROMA V BOLOGNA You know I love me some Juric but there’s just no time here. With midweek games every week it’s really hard to get anything going. I think that’s part of the reason they are hesitant to make a change. It’s a death march for them. Also they are already 9 points adrift of the top 4 and that doesn’t right now include the likes of Juve, Lazio and Milan. Bologna swept this matchup last year which ultimately cemented them finishing in a CL spot. They’ve only lost 1 of the last 6 against Roma conceding just 2 goals along the way. Italiano is sorting them out. Tough one to call here. Roma will be one day shorter on rest though. I’m gonna lean Bologna DC and under here though my man Steve in Hanover might disagree. Steve? What say you? DRAW
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MONZA V LAZIO Monza flatter to deceive so much. You watch them and they look the part, but they just don’t have the quality to finish. Colpani was a huge loss. Maldini is flashy but he’s not really producing yet. Mota and Djuric have to get more involved. Playing off the big man is key for them. Meanwhile Lazio are on a ROLL. Over 5 games they have outscored their opponents 12-3 and 2 of those were own goals. They rediscovered their defensive swagger while also finding their scoring boots. I think Monza gets on the board but Lazio are too much for them. Probably a 2-1 Lazio win. Maybe a 2-2 draw? Hmmmm. Let’s go with the initial instinct. Dia TSOA as LAZIO WINS
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INTER V NAPOLI The Conte Derby! In prime time! Sunday night football BABY! Inter rested people midweek in CL and still won, so they are flying high! Napoli are coming off a beating from Atalanta last week and there or rumors of questions in Lukaku’s confidence. Conte lovers, I’m looking at you Joe, will say he goes to San Siro, parks the bus and gets a result. I say no. Easy part of the schedule is over. It’s big boy soccer time. Inter starts strong and buries them. Take Inter to win both halves, maybe a Lautaro brace and Inter -1.5. Napoli aren’t in trouble but they aren’t contenders for the scudetto either. The slide back to normal starts now. INTER WINS
Final Thoughts
More big games near the top of the table in the best damn league IN THE WORLD!Â
Forza Milan
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Enjoy