Nothing humbles you like sticking your neck out and picking games. After a number of draws over several weeks I went draw crazy. What happens? One draw last week. Hopefully you ignored most of my picks and rode with me on Lazio and Atalanta. Lazio won and Kamada got another SOT. Atalanta won and I nailed the score there.
Without further adieu, ON TO THE WHIP AROUND!
Matchups
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8 FIORENTINA V 9 NAPOLI Early in the year this would have been game of the week material. Now? It’s mostly meaningless. Fiorentina are still battling in Conference League but their Serie A campaign appears to be done with. It’s Conference League or bust for them. Napoli hasn’t been playing for anything for months. Unless of course you consider avoiding the worst title defense ever something to play for. They currently sit 40 points behind last years total. They usually score but they can’t defend. No one remembers the last clean sheet they kept. Fiorentina’s league games have been high scoring of late. We should get goals here. My guess is BTTS should be fine. Probably even over 2.5. As to the result? Who knows. I’d lean Fiorentina DNB. DRAW.
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13 LECCE V 5 ATALANTA Lecce are home and on the beach. Nuff said there. Atalanta will be rotating a bit to prepare for Leverkusen but I think they still come strong. A win here and they clinch 5th spot which means they will be in CL next year no matter what happens in the Europa League Final next week. Look for whoever starts up top for Atalanta to score. A rotated Atalanta should still be good enough to win this and put their CL qualification campaign to bed. ATALANTA WINS
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10 TORINO V 2 MILAN A couple years ago these 2 teams played late in the year in a meaningless game and Milan won 7-0. It’s my favorite Ante Rebic performance ever as he scored a hat trick after coming on with the game already 4-0. I’m not saying we see the same here but I think we see a relaxed game. Milan will rotate but that will feature that guys that want to and can score. I think Torino does the same. Probably get good odds here on BTTS or over 2.5. I’d consider each. I think milan comes in a little hungrier wanting to get to 80 points this year. MILAN WINS
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19 SASSUOLO V 16 CAGLIARI Sassuolo are not dead yet. If they are to survive they need a win here. Cagliari stink away from home with just one win all year. I don’t now how and I don’t know why…but…in the LOCK OF THE WEEK I believe in Sassuolo! SASSUOLO WINS
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12 MONZA V 17 FROSINONE Frosinone on the road…. 0 wins, 7 draws and 11 losses. Only winless road team in the league. You know what to do here folks. Monza DC and under 3.5 at +140. Mark it. If Djuric starts TSOA. Still I’ll say MONZA WINS
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15 UDINESE V 18 EMPOLI Since the bizarre 15 minute loss to Roma, Cannavaro and Co. are unbeaten in 3. Two draws and a win away to Lecce. Not bad. Both Lucca and Samardzic got on the board last game and both might be decent looks to do it again this game. Strange twist here is that Empoli actually have more points on the road than Udinese does at home. I don’t think that will matter here. Empoli can’t score. If they try to come out and score that could mean trouble for them. Udinese are a win away from survival. I think they clinch it here at home. UDINESE WINS
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1 INTER V 7 LAZIO Inter have nothing to play for…but they are still deeper and better than everyone else. Except in goal. Watch the lineups. No Sommer no party. He’s the barometer of how well they play these games. Sommer starts and they win going away. That’s no offense to Lazio. They are THIS close to overtaking Roma for 6th. Considering all the DDR hype and the mess that Lazio was in for the first 5 months of the season that is amazing. Credit to Tudor. He’s low key been a great hire and he makes them a team to watch for next year. As much as I would enjoy a late season revival I think that ends here. Take whoever Inter starts up top to score. If it’s Lautaro and Thuram take them both. It’s closer than may be expected but INTER WINS
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6 ROMA V 11 GENOA Roma must win their last 2 in order to have a shot at 5th. I know speculating whether Italy get 6 spots is fun and all but Roma really don’t wanna depend on that. DDR needs to start his best XI these last 2 games and hope for some help. Otherwise finishing in 6th or lower for the 4th straight year is a failure. Keep in mind here Genoa has been sneaky good on the road. That’s the only thing that keeps me from being certain of a Roma win…but Genoa are on the beach…but they are good on the road. Nah. Abraham scores a late winner and ROMA WINS
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20 SALERNITANA V 14 HELLAS Hellas are a point away from being in solid shape to stay up. They are scoring at a pretty regular rate as they have slowly risen up to 14th. That’s been key after a January overhaul. Salernitana’s games have featured almost 3 GPG all season long. It’s their last home game in Serie A so I expect a good push. Tough to call a result but both teams will leave it all on the pitch. Very possible we get a goal or 2 early. Might be a nice number out there for that. I’d say BTTS and over 2.5 is also in play. Whatever you are comfortable with. Probably will low key be a fun game to watch. For the fun of it in a 3-2 thriller I’ll say HELLAS WINS
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3 BOLOGNA V 4 JUVENTUS If it walks like a draw, talks like a draw and smells like a draw it’s probably a draw. I expect a total clunker here. Mow the yard. Do the laundry. Take a nap. Wait…I don’t think Juve wanna finish 4th. Maybe they show up here? Nah. They’ll save that for the last home game and annihilate Monza. DRAW
Final Thoughts
Big matchups at the top AND bottom of the league. CL qualification is still in the air! Also we have 6 teams still looking to avoid the drop!
Just 2 weeks to go in the BEST LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!! Don’t believe me? The coefficient says so!!! #ONWEGO
Enjoy the Calcio!
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Enjoy