Three rounds to go and Nonno is on a roll baby! Let’s see if we can make some more magic happen!
Without further adieu, ON TO THE WHIP AROUND!
Matchups
v
16 FROSINONE V 1 INTER Frosinone has been very good at home all year. This is also their last home game. They are unbeaten in 6 overall and just a handful of points away from survival. After a long, dismal midseason stretch it’s been a fine turn around for DiFrancesco. They actually defend now. Inter come in with nothing to play for, which really showed last week against Sassuolo. Does that mean another loss here? Probably not. My guess would be a score draw. Go BTTS and a DC for Frosinone. DRAW
v
8 NAPOLI V 4 BOLOGNA Once again Napoli had a game by the balls and managed to shit the bed late. Three of their last 4 games they had leads and dropped points near the final whistle. Do NOT trust them. They have 12 draws for a reason. Bologna are limping to the finish line. Ferguson is gone and the goals have dried up. That 5th CL spot for Italy has become a security blanket for them giving them some wiggle room. They are nice and cozy in that 4th spot. As I said the goals have dried up, but keep in mind Napoli are a sieve. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in 14 matches. For that reason I think this is another good case for BTTS. I’d also consider Osimhen for either shots on goal or to score a goal. DRAW
v
2 MILAN V 15 CAGLIARI Tune in for the matchday post on Saturday for details!
v
7 LAZIO V 17 EMPOLI Speaking of teams that dropped points late…Lazio’s 3 game win streak came to an end late against Monza last week. That has almost killed their chances of getting to 5th. The only way they stay alive here is with a win though. Good thing Empoli is coming to town. Their road form? LOSS LOSS LOSS LOSS. Lazio is at home. Immobile will perform for the home crowd. If he starts, consider him AGS. Also look at those Kamada shots. They been cashing. It probably won’t be enough in the end but LAZIO WINS
v
12 GENOA V 19 SASSUOLO Genoa are on the beach, that’s for sure. That’s wat made the game at Milan so fun last week. Two teams throwing their hands in the air like they just don’t care. This also makes them frisky as their attack is full of guys that can hurt you. Sassuolo are fighting for their lives here. Long presumed dead, last week’s win was massive for them. When everyone around you is happy with a draw a win is a lifeline. There is talent there, especially in Lauriente. Also it should be noted Genoa are not great at home. I think we get goals here. I also think Sassuolo get a result. They may not win but they won’t lose. Sassuolo remain at death’s door but aren’t walking towards the light yet. Sassuolo DC and over 1.5. DRAW
v
14 HELLAS VERONA V 10 TORINO Hellas are the staple of the lower table team that gets results at home to stay up. Their last 2 home games? 2 wins. Their last 8 home games? 4 wins. That’s huge when fighting for survival. They score at home and get results. Torino will come in on the beach but that doesn’t mean they won’t defend. Vanja has 18 clean sheets and wants more. Take the under 2.5. Take a flyer on 0-0. Maybe cash it at 80 minutes. Maybe ride it out. Juric loves a 0-0. Every point counts for Hellas and they will be happy with a stalemate. SCORELESS DRAW
v
3 JUVENTUS V 20 SALERNITANA The Allegri haters will be lining up waiting for this to end in some horrible draw. It won’t. Juve comes out here and buries Salernitana to the tune of 3-0 or 4-0. Take the over. Take Juve -1.5. Definitely take whoever starts at striker to score a goal and Chiesa TSOA. Also consider corners. Juve may get 20 of them. Stack all that together in a parlay if you want. It’s a beat down. JUVE WINS
v
5 ATALANTA V 6 ROMA GAME OF THE WEEK BABY! MAYBE THE GAME OF THE YEAR! Certainly to date it’s the most important game of the year in the league. They are level on points. They are both still in Europa. I don’t think either wants to depend on Italy getting 6 spots to get in. Psst…it won’t. This makes this game a de facto playoff game for getting into the CL next year. Keep in mind Atalanta have a game in hand as well. I’m not sure how tie breakers work when it comes to CL qualification but these 2 teams drew earlier this year and Atalanta have a 5 goal edge in goal difference. In short? Roma need a win here. Bad. Roma will have to come out flying like they did against Juve. They might even get one early. It won’t last tough. Atalanta gets one and maybe another. Roma end up crashing out of both competitions by the end of it all. ATALANTA WINS.Â
v
13 LECCE V 18 UDINESE Lecce are on the beach with 37 points. Funny thing with teams ‘on the beach’ though…sometimes they play carefree and better. That was them last week. They played great against Cagliari and stole one late to damage their survival chances. They have talent up front and a solid defense backed by Falcone. The more I watch Udinese the more I worry for them. They barely saved a point against a Napoli team that can’t defend and has nothing to play for. The week before they blew 3 points away to Bologna late. Is Cannavaro really a late season miracle worker? I don’t think so. Seems like another perfect candidate for a low scoring game. Highly suggest under 2.5. Not sure Udinese lose here but don’t think they win either. Smells like a 1-1 DRAW
v
9 FIORENTINA V 11 MONZA Fiorentina have made the Conference League Final and really have nowhere to go in the league. Catching Lazio for 7th is a real stretch. It’s not impossible though and the final is still 3 weeks away. What better way to get ready for a Cup Final than go on a hot streak. That could start here. Monza are in an odd spot. They are solidly mid table. their coach, Palladino, who has been great the last 2 years is leaving. That leaves some pretty solid players in no man’s land who will be looking to either stay or impress to find new homes. That makes them dangerous. Just ask Lazio who they nipped a draw from at the death last week. You know what also happened last week? SEVEN DRAWS. SEVEN. Guess what? Score DRAW
Final Thoughts
There have been a TON of draws of late on the league. For that reason I went with a 5 leg draw round robin parlay with FRO/INT, BAP/BOL, VER/TOR, ATA/ROM and LEC/UDI. It’s kind of crazy as you are betting on all those individually to hit as well as any combo of the 5. The 5 leg parlay alone is +45432… LOL. Results on Monday!
Just 3 weeks to go in the BEST LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!! Don’t believe me? The coefficient says so!!! #ONWEGO
Enjoy the Calcio!
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Enjoy!