We back up baby! A nice week last week after having back to back downers. Things change as we go down the stretch and some more lessons have been learned. Let’s see if we can put more of those into action once again!
Now on to the WHIP AROUND!
Matchups
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10 TORINO V 4 BOLOGNA Torino have been one of the most dependable teams all year long, especially at home. They’ve conceded just 8 goals in 17 home games while losing just twice. They don’t score much (17 goals), but they also don’t lose ( 2 of 17). Bologna is very similar as a road team…low scoring and just 3 losses in 16. They aren’t a lock for top 5 yet so they can’t afford a slip up. Take under 2.5. Consider a 0-0 halftime score. BOTH TEAMS are the same DC. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. DRAW
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11 MONZA V 7 LAZIO Monza are on the beach and it shows. Even the lineups and subs show a team more or less going through the motions. That makes them a tough call. That’s perfect for a Lazio team making a last minute run for a CL spot. They currently sit 2 points from 6th and 4 points from 5th. I bring up 6th because if an Italian team wins Europe league we get 6 spots. Most pundits are just assuming that includes Roma and Atalanta. Igor Tudor disagrees. Lazio have won their last 3 league games and 4 overall. They are also a very good road team. FWIW Lazio are -130 to win on the road. That tells me the books see it the way I do. Take the Lazio win. I’d also lean BTTS. If Kamada starts look at shots for him. LAZIO WINS
PS: Like I’ve said for a few weeks now…if you can find it on any book take Lazio to make CL next year.
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19 SASSUOLO V 1 INTER Sassuolo is the only team to beat Inter all year…and it was at Inter. Does that matter here? No. Inter rolls. Revenge game. Might finish 6-0. Hakan gets another PK goal. I’d also go Lautaro AGS if he starts. INTER WINS
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14 CAGLIARI V 13 LECCE Cagliari are almost safe but they still have work to do. They’ve made it this far by being very good at home. There are usually goals but they get results. Lecce are just one spot above them in the table but they are free and clear. They have some injuries but have played through them pretty well, especially the defense. Falcone has conceded just 1 goal in 3. I think we see goals though. Cagliari will come out knowing a win here gets them to safety. A draw is fine but it doesn’t put them over. Hmmm…tough call. I could see 0-0 but I could also see 3-2. I’m going goals. Cagliari DC and over 2.5? Maybe just take the 2.5? Cagliari DNB? It’s goals and a result for Cagliari. Spin that which ever way helps you sleep at night. CAGLIARI WINS
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17 EMPOLI V 16 FROSINONE Empoli are on a run of winning at home and getting blasted on the road. Like clockwork. Those wins have come against Napoli and a 3 goal breakout against Torino. Very Jekyll and Hyde. Six weeks ago it looked like Frosinone were dead. Everyone was waiting for EDF to get fired in the hopes of getting a spark. Of course they go ahead and have a 5 game unbeaten streak. A team that was doing nothing but playing high scoring games all of a sudden are keeping clean sheets. A win by either team is massive. A draw leaves them kind of in the same place. Empoli plays well at home. Frosinone will come out enough to at least score one. I really wanna lean a winner here. I’m not touching this but if I were I would take BTTS and Empoli either DC or for the win. Screw it. EMPOLI WINS
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15 HELLAS V 8 FIORENTINA Goals! Goals! Goals! No matter who Fiorentina plays or where they play there will be goals. 20 total goals in their last 5 games. As far as a verdict? Fiorentina are between Conference League legs so expect massive rotation. Take over 2.5. Maybe take over 3.5? BTTS? Also look at a Hellas result. Hellas DNB is +120. Lotta options here to make some cheddar. I’ll say 2-2 DRAW
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2 MILAN V 12 GENOA Tune into the matchday post on Sunday for some betting ideas!
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5 ROMA V 3 JUVENTUS Roma are neck deep in that tough stretch I told you was coming. They have 1 win in 4 and are conceding goals left and right. They were fortunate to get a last minute draw at Napoli last week. Peep their lineup here. It will tell you a lot whether they have conceded the Europa semis or not. Lord knows they should. they are NOT coming back against Leverkusen. They really need to go all in in the league. A few weeks ago 5th and even 4th seemed possible. Now Atalanta are 2 points back with a game in hand. Lazio are only 4 points back with a cakewalk schedule. I’m sure it was great to beat Milan in Europa but it might cost them Champions League. Is that a win for DDR? I’m not sure. They play Juve. Juve and Allegri won’t lose. They will smell blood in the water against a weary Roma. They won’t lose. Can they win? They should but they won’t DRAW
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20 SALERNITANA V 6 ATALANTA And who does Atalanta get this week? Salernitana. LOLOLOLOLOL. After this week I think Atalanta are at least level with Roma with a game in hand. Makes the game next week likely an elimator. BTW, there’s no way Atalanta are beating Leverkusen. Italy are NOT getting 6 spots. Mark it. Atalanta realizes this and knows this game matters. ATALANTA WINS.
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18 UDINESE V 9 NAPOLI Keeping this simple. Udinese need this. Napoli don’t. Napoli has fooled me for 34 straight weeks. No way. Never again. NO NO NO. They did look good last week though. They should have put 5 past Roma. Osimhen looks re-energized. Even Kvara didn’t look like a 3 legged donkey. Don’t do it. No way. Put the phone down man. They do this to you every week! STAND YOUR GROUND!
I’m a strong and capable man.
I’m a strong and capable man.
UDINESE WINS!!!!!
Final Thoughts
Just 4 weeks to go in the BEST LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!! Don’t believe me? The coefficient says so!!! #ONWEGO
Enjoy the Calcio!
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Enjoy!