Excellent slate of games across the league this week. We get a battle at the top, some battles in the middle and some relegation fodder looking to surprise. Here we go!
Matchups
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LECCE V FIORENTINA Lecce are in 14th despite winning just one league game since September 22nd. That’s 133 days with one win. I don’t know if that’s amazing or depressing. What it certainly says is that the bottom of the table stinks. During that period they have kept 0 clean sheets and have scored more than twice exactly 0 times. Despite all that they are a tough nut to crack at home where they concede very little and have only lost 3 of 11. Fiorentina come in after spending the last 3 weeks in 4th. During that time they have lost to Sassuolo, drew Udinese and lost to Inter. Not exactly top 4 performances. Will they bounce back here? I’d say no. The LECCE DC is sitting at -140. That’s not bad. Maybe mix that with under 4 goals to get a plus number? I’ll say DRAW
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EMPOLI V GENOA Both teams come in on relatively good form. Since hiring Nicola as coach Empoli blasted Monza 3-0 and surprised Juve with a draw in Turin. It’s hard to explain but the man has magical properties of some sort. Genoa come in on a much longer streak having gone unbeaten in 7. During that time they have held both Inter and Juve to draws and climbed from 15th to 11th. The defense has been the key as they have now gone 10 games without giving up more than one goal. Hard to say whether Empoli wants to just stand firm or decides to gamble a bit. I’m thinking Nicola comes to play. I’ll say we get a relatively entertaining 1-1 DRAW
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UDINESE V MONZA Udinese seemed to have gotten a bump under Cioffi but that has become a mirage. What they’ve done is traded low scoring draws for high scoring losses. That’s not good when you have tumbled down to 17th are in the thick of a relegation battle. I almost wonder if another loss means Cioffi is canned and they start again. Monza has been a Jekyll and Hyde of late. They beat both Sassuolo and Frosinone with solid performances but those were sandwiched around getting destroyed by Inter and…. Empoli. They are solidly 12th but they don’t inspire much confidence. I’ve been avoiding betting on them of late. I do like them away here though. They have the ability to score and Colpani scoring last week is a good sign. MONZA WINS
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FROSINONE V MILAN There are goals and more goals. Tune into the matchday post for more!
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BOLOGNA V SASSUOLO Bologna got as high as 4th after beating Atalanta 1-0 after round 17. Since then the 4th place curse has seen them lose twice, draw twice and tumble down to 8th. The defense that had only given up 12 goals in 17 games has given up 8 in 4. The offense, which has been poor all year, isn’t helping either. In a bid to try and find goals Motta has tried several different lineups and not much is clicking. Out of favor Orsolini needs to find his form. Meanwhile I keep waiting for that random Sassuolo shock result but it hasn’t happened. Though I’m also waiting for them to fire the coach. Which will happen first? BOLOGNA WINS
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TORINO V SALERNITANA Torino always plays with a stout defense while Salernitana likes to have these wild games with goals at both ends. BTTS has come through in 7 of their last 8 games. Problem is their opponent usually scores more than 1 and Salernitana lose. Torino are solid at home but they will be without Buongiorno at CB. Will that matter enough for Salernitana to get a result? I don’t think so. Even if Pippo’s men get 1 Torino has enough talent to go get 2. Zapata gets on the board again as TORINO WINS
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NAPOLI V VERONA Since matchday 7 Napoli has slowly slipped all the way from 3rd to 9th. All the momentum from last year has completely evaporated. In their last 8 games they have scored 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2 and 0 goals. League MVP Kvara has 1 goal in 12. Osimhen is still at AFCON. Neither Raspadori nor Simeone seem to be the answer. The defense isn’t much better and now it looks like a keeper change might be coming. Is this the worst title defense ever?
THAT ALL BEING SAID IF THEY CAN’T WIN THIS GAME AT HOME AND SCORE SOME GOALS AGAINST FUCKING VERONA THEN THEY MIGHT AS WELL JUST GO HOME FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.
NAPOLI WINS
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ATALANTA V LAZIO GAME OF THE WEEK! High flying and red hot Atalanta at home against an even hotter Lazio team. A clash of teams both seeking that 4th spot. Atalanta are unbeaten in their last 5 and have raced up to the cursed 4th spot. Lazio have been right behind them also winning 4 of 5 and now sit 7th just 2 points behind Atalanta. Atalanta have done it with offense AND defense. CDK is looking to be the real deal more and more every day. Lazio are doing it with defense, defense and more defense. They have scored just 4 goals in 5 games while only losing 1 of them. Last time these two met Lazio got 2 early goals and then held on for dear life. I don’t think we see anything like that this time. The Lazio defense is strong buts it’s not enough. CDK TSOA as the 4th place curse is broken and ATALANTA WINS
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INTER V JUVENTUS Someone gets one early. Then someone equalizes later. It ends 1-1. Maybe the under? Maybe a DNB? Maybe Juve +.25? Lots of options here to cobble something interesting together. I’m hoping for a win for my Juve future bet to win the league but that looks far fetched after the draw to Empoli. A win here from Inter and the title is theirs. DRAW
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ROMA V CAGLIARI I joked a few weeks ago that you ought to take Roma to win 3 in a row. DeRossi’s first 3 games in charge were lined up perfectly for him to hit the ground running. This is the third of that trifecta and I see no reason to change my mind now. Watch the lineups. If Roma start the triumvirate of SES Lukaku and Dybala expect goals. Also maybe Lukaku to score any time and SES TSOA. A big win here and Mourinho will already be a thing of the past. They still won’t finish top 4 though. By a wide margin ROMA WINS
Final Thoughts
Another great week of action in the BEST DAMN LEAGUE IN THE WORLD!!!!
#onwego
Enjoy the Calcio!
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Also check out everything the guys at Two Foot Talk do. Enjoy!