Twenty rounds in and we’ve seen everyone play every other team at least once. Perfect spot to stop and take stock of the table. There‘s been a lot of movement in the last 6 weeks as the schedule balanced out. Notably Roma dropped from 4th to 9th and Napoli slid from 5th to 8th. The top 3 has remained the same. It’s also notable that after a hot start Frosinone have slipped all the way to 15th.
Ratings
INTER (1st) – The best team and organization in the league right now and it’s not even close. They know exactly who they are and stay the course. Excellent coach. Excellent management that doesn’t necessarily focus on getting the best players but the RIGHT players. Perfectly balanced from front to back.
Ok fine I just copy and pasted that from 6 weeks ago. Still applies though. They had a bit of a blip when they drew Genoa and crashed out of the Coppa against Bologna. They have managed to stay top though with Juve are right behind them. The scoring is all coming through Lautaro, Hakan and Thuram. Can they all stay healthy down the stretch as fixtures pile up? That’s really the biggest question. The only thing stopping this train will be injury, suspension or something like that. Dropping out of the Coppa is a silver lining as that’s 3 less games to worry about. Juve’s biggest advantage all year was not being in Europe and having less games. Now they are basically even in games on the schedule. I think that gives Inter a slight edge.
STOCK UP
JUVENTUS (2nd) – Six weeks ago Juve were still winning almost entirely 1 goal games. No matter the opponent it was 1-0. Didn’t matter if it was Milan, Napoli or Cagliari. That’s all changed lately. They are averaging 3 goals per game over the last 6 dropping 18 goals over that time. That’s more than they scored in the previous 13 games. Milik and Vlahovic are both peaking right now. At the same time the defense has been SOLID. Allegri has them playing as good or better than they have in the last 3 years.
The Coppa has opened up for them as Inter, Milan, Napoli and Roma are all out now. Of course there is still the 2 legged semi which I hate. Go ahead and bet them to win the Coppa though. That’s a lock. Sprinkle something on them winning the league too though that number probably isn’t what it was 6 weeks ago. Will they do it? Tough to say. I still see Inter taking it but Juve will be there right ’til the end.
STOCK UP
MILAN (3rd) – “Despite all the negativity and complaining about the management change and Pioli and the training staff we are still 3rd.”
Still applies 6 weeks later. Add to that we are 3rd in offense despite Leao having just a handful of goals. We also have the 5th best defense despite starting 37 different center backs this season. We also have a 9 point bulge between us and 5th place. Master class by Pioli thus far. Adli coming on. Chukwueze playing better. Summer signings Pulisic and Reijnders both playing at a top level. Only bummer here is that we still have Europa which kills any real chance of making a Scudetto run. Was that already a fantasy? Probably… but now that’s dead for sure.
FIORENTINA (4th) – First of all lemme say the race for 4th will be a blood bath. As it is 5 different teams have been in 4th over the last 6 rounds and NONE of them won the following week. That includes Fiorentina who have lost and drawn their last 2 but remained 4th because everyone else below them are dropping points as well. As a Milan fan it’s great to watch them all cannibalize each other.
Despite Italiano’s reputation as an offense-first coach their path to 4th has relied entirely on an all-of-a-sudden stout defense. They have given up just 21 goals which is joint 5th in the league alongside Milan and Atalanta. Terraciano has been solid in goal and Milenkovic has been as important as ever in the back. The injury to Nico Gonzalaz has slowed the offense but he is expected back soon. They have Super Coppa games AND Europe so the fixtures will keep coming. Sooner or later that will catch up to them but for now they are navigating things well.
STOCK UP
ATALANTA (5th) – Six weeks ago Atalanta were in trouble. They were in 8th and it looked like Gasperini had finally lost the team. Since then they have 7 wins in 9 along with a draw away to Roma and a loss away to Bologna. The key has been turning their home games into a cauldron. They have been notoriuosly the worst good team at home in Serie A for the last 5 years. They would handle tough road games and then come home and lay an egg against a Sassuolo or Empoli. This year though they have 7 wins in 10 including winning their last 5 on the trot. Koopmeiners has been great. Muriel continues to do Muriel things. In addition they’ve dipped CDK in the Lazarus pits and he’s finally… slowly… coming good. Love him or hate him he’s always in the right place. It was just a matter of some confidence. He’s also in the right position up top.
History makes me nervous but I think them and Lazio have the best chance to finish top 4.
STOCK UP
LAZIO (6th) -Speaking of…the Smoking Man has Lazio on a roll. They are blowing up the league (4 straight wins) and as usual are making their way through the Coppa. This is kinda their time of year. They always struggle in Europe but domestic stuff is their jam. It’s helped that the defense and Provedel are once again playing well. They have conceded just 7 over their last 12 fixtures which is a great sign. Like Bologna they struggle to score which always keeps them from blowing teams away. Atalanta are the slight favorite to finish 4th but Lazio are right there.
They are a January addition or Immobile hot streak from really making a nice run. Thing is we know Lotito hates spending and one of these days Immobile will finally be past it.
STOCK UP
BOLOGNA (7th) – Funny 6 weeks ago they were also in 7th. They flirted with top 4 but were found wanting. Too close to the sun you fly young Icarus! A road beat down to Udinese was the wake up call. A home draw to Genoa sounded the alarm and now a road loss to Cagliari has them scrambling. For a team that struggles to score and has 8 draws already it’s not a huge surprise. Having only 23 goals through 18 games always has them on a knife edge. Zirksee has been good but they need more. Orsolini broke his dry spell the other day so perhaps that’s a good sign. Any kind of offensive help in the window would be huge. The rest of the team is solid.
Morale of the story here? If you are a mid level club looking to do big things FORGET THE COPPA. That 120 minutes against Inter was fun and all but what did it get you? A tired team and another midweek game the next week? Madness for a team in that position.
STOCK STILL UP
NAPOLI (8th) – “What a shit show huh? It all started with waiting ALL SUMMER to address the gaping hole at CB and has gone mostly sideways and backwards since. Osimhen was grumpy then hurt and then grumpy again. AND he leaves for AFCON in a few weeks. Garcia got chased out of town. The owner remains crazy. Natan is not good. Meret all of a sudden looks very average. Mazzari? I think folks thought he couldn’t screw things up too much but I think the realization that he could steer this team to 7th or 8th is very real. Starting the starters away to Madrid in the CL with Inter coming to town was galactically stupid. So much so that I immediately bet HEAVY on Inter to win that game. For those who thought Milan’s title defense was bad, we got Napoli over here saying HOLD MY BEER!”
Six weeks later all of that still applies. A complete mess. Forget top 4. Might be wise to avoid Europe all together an angle for a summer rebuild and reboot. Sell Osimhen. Consider selling Kvara while he still has value.
STOCK IS ON FIRE IN THAT DUMPSTER OUT BACK
ROMA (9th) – Told you Mourinho was a mistake day 1. Told you all those ‘free’ summer signings were incredibly foolish for a team with no money. Told you there was no way they would finish top 4. Told you that their 4th place spot after 13 rounds was a mirage.
FUN FACT: If they merged Roma and Milan tomorrow 8 of the top 11 salaries would belong to Roma players. Oof. Can you imagine a combined XI where 8 starters were from Roma?
They are in deep shit. Will they drop lower than 9th? I don’t think so. This appears to be the floor. Will they finish top 4? NO. Will they make it into Europe…. maybe? But I doubt it. Next 3 are Hellas, Salernitana and Cagliari. That should help De Rossi get some momentum.
STOCK WAY DOWN
TORINO (10th) – Tell me if you have heard this story before. Low scoring. Tough defense. Hell to play against. That’s what Juric does and that’s why they thrive. You’d have thought losing Schurr for the year would have changed all that but Buongiorno has been fantastic since replacing him. He’s young, Italian and big. He could be the next guy they sell off for HUGE money. Scoring has been iffy but Zapata awakening could be a sign of things to come. They have the players to attack but Juric will always play it tight. It limits their ceiling but also means they will never be in the relegation fight.
18 goals scored and 18 against. Basically a .500 record with 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses. They were 10th 6 weeks ago and remain 10th. They are unapologetically exactly what we thought they were.
STOCK REMAINS THE SAME.
MONZA (11th) – Conversely Monza remain 11th yet appear to be standing on the edge of a cliff. The defense has taking a beating conceding 7 in their last 2. The Inter beatdown was ugly but somewhat expected. You give up a couple early to them and they are gonna keep coming. The 3-2 win against a flailing Frosinone squad was arguably worse. Frosinone are a total mess and Monza just kept letting them into the game. Colpani has slowed down after a hot start. He had 6 goals in the first 12 games but none in the last 8. No one else has more than 3. Sensi has 2 all year and both of those are from the spot. Sitting 11th they are still punching above their weight. Di Gregorio has been great in goal. He came off in the last game though and any significant time missed due to a thigh issue could be trouble. Positive news is even a poor streak won’t get them near the relegation zone. They should be safe.
STOCK DOWN
GENOA (12th) – Gilardino continues to do a great job. Gudmundsson has looked amazing scoring in multiple ways. He may up earning a nice payday and a war chest for Genoa. Dragusin was doing similarly great things in the back and DID earn them a nice pay day on his way to Spurs. Fantastic business there. Retegui started off nice but has battled injury and poor form. Frendrup has been another great find. The young Dane is all over the field and brings a fair bit of grinta. They should be able to battle for that 10th spot by the end of the year. If they can hold on to Gilardino and find some more good, young talents they will have a good chance to be next year’s Bologna.
STOCK UP
LECCE (13th) – LECCE continue to LECCE. New faces have come in but the project remains the same. Falcone is still rock solid in the back keeping them in most games. Sledding of late has been tough but they are still getting results in games they need them. They are also a thorn in better sides taking points off Milan and Bologna and pushing Inter all game long. Goals are at a premium for them though. They have just 1 marker in 4. Concerning is the fact that Nikola Krstovic has stopped scoring all together and Lameck Banda is off to AFCON with Zambia. Without Banda as their danger man a tough upcoming stretch will only get tougher. D’Aversa will keep them playing solid defense and in games though. They are really only a few more wins and some draws away from being just fine.
SOCK SIDEWAYS
SASSUOLO (14th) – From up and down through the first 10 weeks or so to just DOWN. Just 2 wins in their last 16 league matches TWO! While EDF’s job being in question could be debated it’s a miracle that Dionisi still has a job. Not only is the team playing poorly but some of the players are sliding backwards too. At this point last year we all thought Lauriente would either be sold for big money last summer or flat out explode this year. Instead he has 1 goal all year and has been mostly invisible in games. Thorstvedt and Boloca have been mild bright spots. Berardi continues to do Berardi things. Could this finally be the year they go down? Probably not. They aren’t THAT bad. A new coach couldn’t hurt though.
STOCK WAY DOWN
FROSINONE (15th) – From red hot start and surprise top half team to 5 straight losses and 15th spot. This is what usually happens to the recently promoted fun times good/bad teams… one day they are just BAD. They have just 1 point in their last 7 league games. Over that period they have been outscored 13-6. That same stretch includes a 4-0 Coppa beat down. Where early on they were able to win or draw some high scoring games now they are just getting stomped. They never had a defense and now with no offense to match there may be no end to the slide. After early plaudits EDF’s name has come up as being on the chopping block. Is that fair though? No one expected them to stay up. I think most had them on their short list to go down. 15th spot after 20 rounds? That’s good right?
Thing is in this league sometimes you need a different voice to get a team over the line. There are guys out there that specialize in that sort of thing. They face Cagliari and Hellas in their next 2. Make or break time.
STOCK PLUMMETING
UDINESE (16th) – It’s strange in my mind that they have been playing better under Cioffi but remain 16th in the table. Amassing 12 draws isn’t helping that’s for sure. They are scoring more which always makes things easier on the eye. After a slow start Lorenzo Lucca is starting to score. Also after having his eyes turned in the summer Samardzic has been playing much better. He and Walace are the engine room of the group. Where they go this team will go. Sell one of them in January and they will struggle. They have Milan, Atalanta and Juve in their next 4 so the second half could be off to a tough start.
STOCK UP… I THINK?
CAGLIARI (17th) – It will likely come down to them or Empoli to see who survives. I’m gonna lean Empoli.
STOCK REMAINS DOWN
HELLAS VERONA (18th) – Wins this year are against Empoli twice, Cagliari and… Roma LOL. They are bad and now there is financial trouble at the club and everything not nailed down is getting sold. Ngonge has already gone. Many more will go. They are finally going down.
SOCK DOWN TO SERIE B
EMPOLI (19th) – Speaking of coaches on the bubble and teams bringing in guys to help keep a club up…. Empoli fired Aurelio Andreazzoli and brought in David Nicola just yesterday. A smart move to bring in a recent survival merchant beating several other clubs to getting him. Nicola is the one that miraculously saved Salernitana a few years ago. He joins Empoli in desperate times but Empoli are also always one of the busiest Italian clubs during the January window. Let’s see what kind of moves they make and what kind of quick impact Nicola has. Their next 2 hiome games are Monza and Genoa. Those aren’t easy but they are games that Empoli can draw and possibly win.
STOCK INCOMPLETE
SALERNITANA (20th) – Poor Pippo. Stop taking these jobs huh? Just go back to Serie B. Hang out with your buddy Pirlo down there. Drink some of his wine. Enjoy.
Stop doing this to yourself though man.
STOCK WAY DOWN
Final Thoughts
There’s a long way to go but things are starting the settle. The battle for 4th will go to the last day as will the fight for survival. It’s not the best league in the world for nothing folks!
ENJOY THE CALCIO!
Lisi