Big time separation week last week with Inter and Juve both winning and Napoli and Milan both losing. Milan are now closer to 10th than they are to first and Napoli have tumbled to 6th. What will happen this week in the best league in the world? Let’s see!
Matchups
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GENOA V JUVENTUS This game is trickier than it might appear. Genoa have 11 of their 15 points at home this year. They play much better there and have 10 of their 15 goals at home. They do tend to concede at home as well. Not a good sign with Juve hitting on all cylinders. My guess is it’s ugly as usual but Juve gets one early and one late. Perhaps even a clean sheet for Szczesny. Consider the under as JUVE WINS.
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LECCE V FROSINONE Lecce have more of their points at home but are still essentially .500 there. That is reflected in the fact that they have scored 9 yet conceded 10. They haven’t won at home since early September. Of course they welcome to town Frosinone who have just 2 points on the road this year. In those games they average a goal a game but also average giving up 2 a game. Something has to give here right? Hmmm. BTTS seems a good shout. Perhaps Lecce DC? Stick those together for +125. DRAW
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NAPOLI V CAGLIARI Don’t overthink this. Napoli comes home and gets some home cooking and destroys Cagliari. No late comeback here for Raineri’s men. No joy at all. Kvara scores…. lololol… COUGH COUGH COUGH….. hahahahahahahahaha COOOOOOUUUUUGH…. lololololol. Just kidding. Maybe Osimhen at the double. NAPOLI WINS
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TORINO V EMPOLI Torino at home. You know what that means. Goals will be at a premium. They have been scoring better at home of late with 6 in their last 3. It helps that Zapata and Sanabria seem to have awoken. Going against them at home when they are finding the back of the net seems crazy. Empoli? Their last 3 road games they have gone DWL. Not bad for them. Also both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5. BTTS at Torino though? History says that happens a lot in these matchups. Hmmm. Brain says one thing. Heart another. Stay away. DRAW.
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MILAN V MONZA Milan sent out the first team to beat Newcastle in the CL midweek. So there’s that. Also Calabria is suspended. That means a somewhat rotated attack and lord knows who starting in the back. The chances of keeping a clean sheet? Slim. Monza continue to Monza. They do Monza better at home but Monza on the road usually means goals. Look for Colpani here. Also watch the Milan lineup. We could get Chukwueze and Jovic starting here. If Leao is out there and up for it watch out. Heart says 3-1 to Milan but we might get a 2-2 draw. Either way it’s goals. Bet on goals and watch what could be a really fun back and forth game. I’ll be a homer and say MILAN WINS
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FIORENTINA V HELLAS Fiorentina played a full lineup midweek when they didn’t have to. The result? Nico Gonzalez came off injured and is now a doubt to start this game. Other than him they are getting goals but it is by committee. Hard to lean on anyone. Hellas are poor on the road but when they do get results it’s a slog. Fiorentina will score but good luck betting on who. Hellas won’t score, it will just matter on how much they can muck things up. 2 weeks ago my brain was thinking 0-0 and Hellas Udinese finished 3-3. Watch the lineups. I think Italiano puts out enough to do the job. FIORENTINA WINS
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UDINESE V SASSUOLO THERE WILL BE GOALS! Udinese’s last 4 games have featured 16 of them. Not to be outdone Sassuolo’s last 4 have included 17! Now… if the Serie A gods are against us this somehow finishes 0-0. I don’t think that happens though. Udinese have been better since the coaching change but they need a win. Sassuolo on the road comes out BALLING. This game has Berardi goal written all over it. Take that. Take the over. Who takes home all 3 points? I’ll say it’s 3-2 as SASSUOLO WINS
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BOLOGNA V ROMA GAME OF THE WEEK! Welll… maybe if everyone was healthy and available. Fear not though! The tag sticks! This is Bologna’s chance to prove they belong. They come in with 16 points from 7 at home having conceded just 4 goals. Motta’s men have made their home a fortress. scoring can be hard to come by but Zirksee has seized the reigns at striker with 7 goals on the season now. Roma come in minus Lukaku (red card) and also Dybala… wait for it … (injury). They will also be missing Zalewski at the wing back spot. Expect Roma to sit a lot. Expect Bologna to be very cautious. This might come down to just how much Motta goes for it. At home? He should. Will he? Take the under. Sprinkle something on a 0-0. VERY POSSIBLE. Also sprinkle Zirksee to score. I’ll say he does as BOLOGNA WINS.
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LAZIO V INTER Fun fact: In the last 28 head to head meetings Lazio have 13 wins to Inter’s 12 with 2 draws. Lazio haven’t lost at home to Inter in 5 years. Lazio have conceded 4 goals at home this year. That all seems like sound logic. Right? Well Inter have scored 16 goals on the road this year while conceding just 2. Only Juve held them to a draw. The rest are all wins. History be damned. Inter go on the road, rotate to start the game and bring in the starters late to put it away. Lautaro off the bench with a winner. Smoking man is in trouble down in 10th. He goes through 3 packs of Benson and Hedges as INTER WINS
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ATALANTA V SALERNITANA Another one of those straight forward/too good to be true situations. Atalanta are playing better of late scoring goals and having fun. They still can’t defend (18 total goals in their last 5) but goals heal all wounds for Gasperini led teams. Salernitana stinks. Pippo took another shit job. Poor guy. Atalanta will be licking their chops at the sight of them. Look for Lookamn to score. Take the Atalanta ML and over 2.5 goals in a lowkey lock of the week as ATALANTA WINS
Final Thoughts
The best league in the world continues to provide great action and great angles! Will Inter and Juve keep sailing away from the pack? Can Milan stay within hailing distance? Tune in and find out!
#onwego
Enjoy the Calcio!
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene. Also check out everything the guys at Two Foot Talk do. Enjoy!