Big…and ugly…win over the weekend should be a bolt of confidence for the team and they’re going to need it as we’re coming down to the wire in these Champions League group stage games. First-to-last in the group is only separated by 3 points and everything can change today or everything can remain exactly as is. Big day!…maybe…
LAST FIVE
MILAN: WDWLD
DORTMUND: WLWLW
FORMATIONS
*FotMob is saying Milan is in a 4-3-3 but I think it’s a 4-2-3-1 with RLC as the CAM and Reijnders and Adli in the double pivot
MILAN (4-3-3): Maignan; Hernandez, Tomori, Thiaw, Calabria (C); Reijnders, Adli, Loftus-Cheek; Pulisic, Giroud, Chukwueze
DORTMUND (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Bensebaini, Schlotterbeck, Hummels, Ryerson; Sabitzer, Can (C); Bynoe-Gittens, Reus, Malen; Füllkrug
TIME/LOCATION
TIME: 3pm EST/8pm GMT
PLACE: San Siro, Milano, Italy
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount + has your Champions League action in the US (apparently ViX too), DAZN in Canada. Here’s a link where you might have some luck tracking down your viewing options and of course, check your local listings.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
DORTMUND
DORTMUND
Dortmund’s season has been in fits and starts, coming out of the gates slow, finding some footing, then waffling back and forth between solid performances and subpar outings. Sound familiar?…
Still, they can put up a good performances with wins over Newcastle in Champions League (twice) and a draw the first time around vs Milan in round 2. That’s good enough to lead the table heading into this game but a lot can change with everything so tight and only 3 points separating first and last in the group.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
ATTACK
The guy who Milan need to contain most is still JULIAN BRANDT, which they managed to do nicely the first time these two played. He leads Dortmund this season in both goals and assists (4 and 5, respectfully), so their attention to him is warranted. In that first matchup Milan kept his touches down and as such Dortmund did most of their attacking down the opposite/left side (46% for the game).
Coming down on the left was LB RAMY BENSEBAÏNI, their Theo if you will. He was all over the place in a good way for Dortmund in the first match and was the match’s best rated player and UEFA’s MOTM. Using this approach, they like to work out to in and most of their shots came from the middle of the pitch, 18 in total and from a lot of different players. In total, they fired off 13 of the 18 from open play so their build up is solid.
DEFENSE
The Dortmund defense will be anchored again by their two big CBs, MATS HUMMELS and NICO SCHLOTTERBECK. These two guys ate up a lot of real estate in the box last time and got a big helping hand from EMRE CAN, one of the best DMs in Germany. Their RB JULIAN RYERSON is more of their stay-at-home guy and will staying back and ensuring Dortmund is well covered.
MILAN
MILAN
Milan got a big win vs a top 6 side in the league this past weekend and will be looking to keep the momentum going here in Champions League. Milan is still suffering through a lot of injuries and this will certainly be the main talking point heading into the game as well as what we see on the pitch.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
ATTACK
With Leão out until at least this weekend, all eyes will be on Pulisic for the creativity out at LW and a fully-rested Giroud will certainly be an asset up top. With Dortmund’s big CB duo, Giroud is going to have his work cut out for him and will need to work hard to occupy them as often as he can. Milan mostly attacked down the left last time (49%) and while I think this will stay as the preferred path, RLC is slated to start at CAM and this should help balance out the attack and actually give Milan an attacking presence in the middle of the pitch. So, look for them to attack down the middle more than the 19% of the time they did the last time they played Dortmund. We all saw how much PSG struggled with RLC in that role and hopefully we see something similar in this game.
Finally, Reijnders will be back in the double pivot but with who is still somewhat of a mystery. There were some rumors of Adli starting instead of Krunic but Krunic seems to be the leading candidate still. If Krunic does start then we should see Reijnders play in a more advanced role than he was vs Fiorentina this past weekend. In all, I expect a more attacking side than the first time they played, as Milan only fired off 7 of their 13 total shots from open play.
DEFENSE
The defense is healthy and if Tomori and a newly-steady Thiaw can again control the the middle of the final third, and a healthy Maignan in net, then this is the part of the team I’m least concerned with in this match. Calabria has been good, Theo is finding his attacking form, which is his best defense, so I think Dortmund has their work cut out for them. Last time, despite having more possession and taking more shots, Dortmund never managed to fire off a shot from inside the 6 yard box and half of the 18 came from outside the 18 yard box altogether. Yes, the 9 from inside the box is still concerning and that has to do with who was in the midfield last time.
Pioli used Pobega, Riejnders, and Musah in the midfield in the 4-3-3 in their first meeting. Not an overly defensive lineup but he did sit back more so that helped. Still, they obviously had a part to play in those 9 shots coming from inside the 18 yard box and will need to improve shutting down space whoever ends up playing (Musah is out on accumulation). In the end, Pioli’s overall approach – will he sit back more like he did in the first match or attack more being at home – is what I’ll be watching when it comes to the midfield and what their tasks will be in this game.
PREDICTION TIME
Ok, first here’s what Lisi had to say:
Lisi: We win. Probably 2-0. We handle them with very little issue and dominate most of the game. I think Pioli has them perfectly rested and rotted to smack them.
For me, I think Milan wins 2-0 and Giroud and RLC are the difference from the Fiorentina game. I think Pioli applies pressure like this past weekend but doesn’t play a very high line.
BETTING IDEAS
Lisi: Pulisic to score or assist, Chuk and RLC with a SOT. Maybe Theo with a card
Ugh…bets. I’m only doing this because Lisi said he’d withhold my Christmas bonus if I dont…(LOL). I like Lisi’s line on Pulisic, put me down for that. Depending on the odds, Giroud scoring could be a good one too. But really, you should just ignore my entire part in this section of the post!
Forza Milan
gillis
*Lineups updated. Adli is indeed starting so it’s going to be very interesting to see what Pioli has in mind. Very risky with him and Reijnders in the double pivot or even in a 3-man midfield if he’s not going to sit back. If he IS going to sit back, then Adli could be key to springing counters so maybe that’s why he’s in there. Another weird move is by Dortmund and them sitting Brandt to start. As I mentioned above, Milan contained him really well in the first matchup and maybe they’re trying to change up the point of reference for the offense and confuse Milan.
Looks like we have a wonderful cat-and-mouse game going even before the whistle and I’m looking forward to what each side does (and obviously hoping Pioli and Milan end up on top)