Champions League is here to help us wash that Juve game out of our mouths. With only two draws out of two games so far in Champions League, both games winnable had Milan converted a plethora of chances, Milan will need to get at least 4 points out of the next two back-to-back games vs PSG. Playing in Paris today points to getting 1 point here and taking all 3 points at home rather than the reverse. Either combination will do but winning today makes this goal easier on the return leg.
Gotta get it done, boys. Let’s do it!
LAST FIVE
MILAN: LWDWW
PSG: WWLDW
FORMATIONS
*Lineups updated below (image above was the predicted lineup before the game)
MILAN (4-3-3): Maignan; Hernandez (C), Tomori, Thiaw, Kalulu; Reijnders, Krunic, Musah; Leão, Giroud, Pulisic
PSG (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hernandez, Skriniar, Marquinhos (C), Hakimi; Vitnha, Ugarte, Zaire-Emery; Mbappe, Muani, Dembele
TIME/LOCATION
TIME: 3pm EST/8pm GMT
PLACE: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount + has your Champions League action in the US (apparently ViX too), DAZN in Canada. Here’s a link where you might have some luck tracking down your viewing options and of course, check your local listings.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
PSG
PSG
Everyone knows PSG and everyone knows who to watch and who needs to be stopped: Kylian Mbappe. That being said, other players will matter so let’s dive into that a little.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
ATTACK
Mbappe, Mbappe, Mbappe. World’s best player in my opinion. Erling Haaland gets a lot of hype for being the best but he often vanishes in big games. Mbappe? The opposite. He has what Ronaldo and Messi had (have?). He’s got 8 goals in 8 games in Ligue 1, and 1 goal in 2 games in Champions League this season. Big game for club or country, he’s going to show up. There’s a saying I like for players like this and it’s: you cannot stop him, you can only hope to contain him.
So, while containing Mbappe is the goal, Milan need to keep these other guys from hurting them, including Achraf Hakimi from the RB position (3 goals in league, 1 in CL), Goncalo Ramos up top (2 league goals), and Randal Kolo Muani and Marco Asensio (both with 2 league goals a piece). PSG will go through Mbappe, he will put pressure and stretch the defense, and that’s where these guys can step in and cause problems.
DEFENSE
We don’t have to but let’s start with Dollar, I mean, Donnarumma, but let’s do it anyway. He is a capable keeper just not worth what he costs but more importantly, Milan know his weaknesses. He’s going to want to stay close to goal where he can use his big frame. The biggest threat in the back is actually Hakini getting forward, as that came be its own form of defense. PSG would prefer Hakimi doing more of that rather than actual defending. I don’t know Marquinhos well but we all know Milan Skriniar. Big and physical but also slow and well, I think pretty average at defending.
MILAN
MILAN
So far in Champions League the big issue has been finishing, as the team has been very good at generating chances. The first two opponents – Newcastle and Dortmund – didn’t have anything close to the scoring threat Mbappe is so Pioli will need to be mindful of this. While FotMob, where I grab predicted and gameday lineups, has Calabria starting, there have been rumors that Kalulu is actually going to get the start at RB and this would be a smart move. Overally, we’ll see what Pioli plans to do but I think some things are pretty obvious, at least defensively (I’ll talk more about this below).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
ATTACK
Milan’s attack this season has come from the wingers even if not always from the wings. Depending on how Pioli approaches the game then Milan’s attack will need to do different things. If they play a high pressure/high line then Leão and Pulisic will need to stay wide, as that will provide better space and opportunities for others to attack, but it also spreads out PSG and makes it more difficult to counter (if they don’t do that, well, we all saw the Inter game…).
They also need to pressure Donnarumma when he has the ball at his feet and and get him out of the 6 yard box when he doesn’t. Theo and Hakimi had some great battles in their lone year facing each other so Theo and Leão will need to make him play more defense than offense and staying wide also does this. If Milan sit back then it’s all about countering. I wish Okafor was available if Pioli goes this route but either way they’re going to need to attack Skriniar. They had success doing that when he was at Inter, they’ll have success doing it again with him at PSG.
DEFENSE
FotMob’s predicted lineup notwithstanding, the rumors are that Pioli will start Kalulu for Calabria and Krunic for Adli. I like both of these moves. With Theo starting at LB, this would give Pioli a lot of speed at the back with Kalulu on the other side and Thiaw and Tomori at CB. Going with a more stout and defensive-minded Krunic in the middle will help firm up the spine and will allow the fullbacks some opportunities to get forward and combined with Leão and Pulisic, attack from the outside-in. This is the only way I can see the defense holding up in a high pressure/high line approach. I don’t expect Kalulu to be able to stop Mbappe, but the only way Calabria should be out there is if Pioli is completely sitting back.
One last thing: the midfielders – all of them – need to do well to disrupt whoever is on the ball and make it difficult to get Mbappe the ball to begin with. While I expect Krunic to sit back more and Reijnders to attack, this means Musah is going to have to run and run and run and make the right decision on when and who to pressure. I think he can do it.
PREDICTION TIME
I reached out to Lisi to get his take again. His prediction: WIN.
For me, PSG had a bad loss last time out in Champions League and will be looking to rebound from that. They’re better than that 4-1 loss to Newcastle and I’m always concerned with regression to the mean, in this case, back to being better than that score line. Milan needs to fight and score (finally), so I’m going with a 2-2 draw.
BETTING IDEAS
Lisi: I would take both teams to score, Reijnders to take a shot, Mbappe to score or assist, Mbappe with a shot on target
Again, I generally don’t like putting out betting numbers but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Leão with a goal or an assist, same with Mbappe, and a non 0-0 score line.
Let’s go get it done, boys!
Forza Milan
gillis