Despite dominating Newcastle at the San Siro for round 1 of the group stage, Milan only netted 1 point for their efforts. That makes this game a strong candidate for must-win as heading into back-to-back games vs favorites PSG on only 1 or 2 points a dicey endeavor. Time for Milan to flex some of that Champions League DNA I hear a lot of people say…
LAST FIVE
MILAN: WWWDL
DORTMUND: WWLWD
FORMATIONS
MILAN (4-3-3): Maignan; Hernandez, Tomori, Thiaw, Calabria (C); Pobega, Reijnders, Musah; Leão, Giroud, Pulisic
DORTMUND (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Bensebaini, Schlotterbeck, Hummels, Ryerson; Özcan, Can (C); Malen, Reus, Brandt; Füllkrug
TIME/LOCATION
TIME: 3pm EST/8pm GMT
PLACE: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount + has your Champions League action in the US (apparently ViX too), DAZN in Canada. Here’s a link where you might have some luck tracking down your viewing options and of course, check your local listings.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
DORTMUND
After a very ho-hum start to the season, including a labored 1-0 win vs Köln and back-to-back draws vs Bochum and recently promoted FC Heidenheim, Dortmund have begun to find their footing. They’ve won 3 of the last 4 matches, the only loss coming at PSG for round 1 of Champions League. Surely it would’ve been beneficial to play them earlier in the season as I expect the recent Champions League mainstays to put up quite the fight. Milan is ready but I’m expecting Dortmund to be too…
PLAYERS TO WATCH
ATTACK
DONYELL MALEN has lead the way for Dortmund so far this season with 3 goals while MARCO REUS has netted 2. A lot of us know Reus, and he’s surely still a threat at 34-yearsold, but Malen is the one to watch. Still young at 24, the left winger is surely going to pass last season’s 9 goals/6 assists numbers and will be who Tomori and company will need to keep an eye on. Who will be worth watching in the midfield? Well, that honor goes to JULIAN BRANDT. The 27-year old has averaged 9 goals/9 assists over the last 2 seasons and has already logged 1 goal and 4 assists this campaign. Brandt has a good cross, good shot, and is good all-around midfielder. Minimizing how much space he has will be key since he can sting you with either a quality shot or a well-threaded pass.
DEFENSE
The Dortmund defense is anchored by stalwart CB MATS HUMMELS. The 34-year old veteran is still sound defensively and can still knock home a goal if left alone on a set piece. A bigger player, Milan will want to get him out of his own box and one-on-one with Leão as much as possible. His partner in the center of the defense, NICO SCHLOTTERBECK, is a 23-year old German with 11 national caps already under his belt. This combination of wily vet and young star works well and Milan fans know it well as we’ve recently seen it with Kjær/Tomori and Nesta/Thiago Silva before that.
MILAN
Milan has bounced back nicely after the terrible 5-1 defeat to Inter and all the depth brought in during the summer has paid dividends. With Milan facing a slew of injuries, including to Bennacer, Krunic, and now Ruben Loftus-Cheek, these players who have filled in will get another chance to show what they can do and maybe even snatch a starting role from under the starter’s noses when they return. As my fellow blogger Michael Lisi likes to say, “competition is good”.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
ATTACK
I think we all know what Leão and Pulisic can and want to do. I think a big part of how this ends up looking is whether or not the opponent decides to slide over to help with Leão. If they don’t, it’s the Leão & Theo show. If they do then Milan can now build and sting an opponent from the other side. Reijnders is starting the match as the regista with Musah and Pobega on either side of him. I don’t know how much Reijnders will actually stay back so I can see him getting forward and Calabria tucking in like we saw for much of September. Either way, Reijnders, Musah, Pobega, and even Adli if he makes it into the game, will all have a bigger part to play if Dortmund decides to try and take Leão out of the game strategically. Everyone has their preference but I don’t know that one method is better than the other in terms of how Milan attacks.
DEFENSE
Tomori’s resurgance has been gigantic. The defense has needed this since the beginning of the 2023 calendar year and that god-awful January. He has been in peak form and it’s resulted in one conceded goal in the last 4 games and even that was due to a Milan player’s error in their own box. I think he’s been quicker to get in position, both defensively in their own third and in transition, and it has decreased overall opportunities for the opponent and decreased the need for dangerous challenges, something he’s been struggling with since the Scudetto season. Behind him is Maignan and well, nothing to worry about there. Calabria is always a defensive liability but maybe of greater concern is the lack of a true DM at Pioli’s disposal. As mentioned above, maybe Pioli has him play a pseudo-DM while in possession but either way, how well the rest of the midfield snuff out what Brandt is trying to do for Dortmund will go a long way towards keeping them off the scoreboard.
PREDICTION TIME
I reached out to Lisi for this to get his two cents and here’s what he has to say:
Lisi: Sit and counter for 60. See if it’s there to go for late. I really think we can get 1 or 2 via the counter and get the win.
For me, I don’t know how much Pioli fears Dortmund’s attack and Pioli generally doesn’t like to sit back, so I don’t see them trying to suck Dortmund up the pitch to try and counter them. I think Pioli attacks and leans on Leão.
BETTING IDEAS
Lisi: Leão for a goal or an assist, Milan for the 2-1 win
I generally don’t like putting out betting numbers, and I won’t do that, but predictions?…well, if you’re going to twist my arm I’m going with a 2-1 Milan win!
Forza Milan
gillis