Got 5 out of 10 results last week including multiple goal scorers AND nailing the exact score of Lecce and Spezia. Still over .500 on the season and also getting you some extra salad on goal scorers and over/unders. More opportunities to make some cheddar this weekend. Let’s see what the Serie A gods have to offer!
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SAMPDORIA V SASSUOLO This is a tough game to read late in the year. Samp is toast but this is their last home game of the season. Will the home fans show up to cheer them or show up to boo them for 90 solid minutes? It’s hard to say. The only thing that makes me think they will get some kind of support is Quagliarella. He’s a legend. I don’t think they will trash him. The rest? Total dog water. Meanwhile Sassuolo are on the beach and having fun. Berardi is RED HOT. He has 4 goals in 5 and this game should be wide open. Take Berardi to score and the over. Result? SASSUOLO WINS
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SALERNITANA V UDINESE Another matchup of on the beach teams. Salernitana are at home and have lost once in 13. Udinese have been blah for most of the last 6 months. As I’ve said at least a dozen times now, no Deulofeu no party. I’m not sure Salernitana wins here but they aren’t gonna lose. Take them either on a double chance or draw/no bet to be safe if you prefer. Ochoa for MVP? Why not? I’m all in as SALERNITANA WINS
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SPEZIA V TORINO Massive game for Spezia as a win could clinch survival if Hellas falter. Their crowd is great. They are much better at home than on the road. With Hellas getting Empoli at home this round I think they have to hold serve and probably go for the win late. That could be dangerous. Torino are the 4th best team on the road this year. Who knew? They are safe and all but also MIGHT have a European shout if Juve face further punishment. Juric would love nothing more than to have that feather in his cap. Spezia are game but ultimately can’t get the W they so desperately need in an entertaining DRAW
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FIORENTINA V ROMA Fiorentina will be pissed at all the chances they squandered in the Coppa final against inter. Does that mean they fall flat or come out firing? I think they come out firing. This is their last home game in what has been a great campaign for them.The back is still suspect but they have an armada of attackers in form. Mourinho comes to town within shouting distance of top 4 but also with a team somewhat battered and with the Europa final just 4 days later. Making up 4 points in the league in 2 weeks means they would have to win. I don’t like to think that coaches or teams make either/or decisions at this point but he almost has to. Expect Roma to rotate like crazy and hope to sit and sit and get a smash and grab win late. If Fiorentina should get an early goal top 4 is over. I say Fiorentina get that early goal and makes Roma’s decision for them. FIORENTINA WINS
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INTER V ATALANTA If for no other reason that it’s good for Milan and hopefully top 4 is decided heading into round 38… Hakan scores and INTER WINS
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HELLAS V EMPOLI Hellas have 7 wins all year and 6 are at home. 20 of their 30 points have been won at home. They will need every bit of juice from the home crowd for this one. Empoli, while hot of late, stink on the road. Only 2 of their 10 wins are awya from home. Their last road match? A draw at Samp. If this were a midseason match I would take Empoli all day. It isn’t though. It’s life or death for Hellas and the bookmakers know it? Hellas -200 to win at home? You gotta be kidding me. I’m not touching this with a hundred foot pole but I’m gonna say HELLAS WINS
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BOLOGNA V NAPOLI Like Torino, Bologna will be upset they didn’t do better the last 6 weeks to take advantage of Juve’s misfortune. They could be in much better position for Europe. sadly that ship has mostly sailed. It doesn’t take away from a very good season though. They could cap that nicely with a home win against Napoli. Arnautovic returned with a goal last week and Oroslini got a marker as well. They will wish the season was about 8 more weeks they as they find form again. On the other hand Napoli are ready for the season to end. They haven’t played a meaningful game in 6 weeks and are already seeing how murky the offseason following a scudetto can be. Transfer rumors surround half their players nd it sounds like Spalletti has already decided to leave once the season is over. What fun! I’d sprinkle some salad on both Orsolini and Arnautovic to score as BOLOGNA WINS
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MONZA V LECCE Monza continue to Monza as they are within shouting distance of the best season ever by a promoted Italian team. The record is 57 and right now their ceiling is 58. Interestingly enough making their home a fortress has not been part of that success. They are split right down the middle with 26 points at home and 26 on the road, with identical 7 win, 5 draw and 6 loss records in each. Lecce don’t NEED this game but even a draw here would make it tough for anyone to catch them. With a 3 point cushion with 2 to play even 2 draws is probably enough. Form tells me that Monza won’t lose. I wouldn’t normally advocate betting the draw but I would go ahead and do just that. 1-1 DRAW
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LAZIO V CREMONESE Lazio have clinched CL and Cremonese are eliminated. Lazio didn’t exactly get red hot to clinch. they clinched because Juve got punished. Cremonese have nothing to play for and it’s really showed the last 2 games, shipping 7 goals. It’s Lazio’s home game and I think Sarri has them fired up to celebrate CL for next year. I’d declare this game a stay away but if you wanna dabble I’d take immobile to convert a PK as LAZIO WINS
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JUVENTUS V MILAN Oh boy. Ooooooooh boy. Deep breath. Inhale. Exhale. All I can say is a draw is good enough. Could Milan roll as Juve just lay down? Sure. Do I REALLY think that will happen? No. Strangely enough Milan have not last away to Juve in 4 years and only have 1 loss in their last 9 meetings with Juve. That was that bizarre game we were so shorthanded that Calabria started in the midfield. The wingers that night? Hauge and Castillejo. Oof. My only relief here is I will out of town and not be able to watch what should be a brutally negative Allegri fueled DRAW.
Final Thoughts
Last 2 weeks of the season. It could all be decided this week or it could all come down to the last weekend. As Milan fans we want this decided this week. A last weekend with CL spots AND survival up for grabs? OH THE DRAMA!
Happy watching!
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene.