Buckle in because we don’t get very many opportunities to watch a Champions League knockout Derby della Madonnina very often. So savor every moment and enjoy it. As long as Milan leaves it all on the table then I know I’ll be happy regardless of the outcome.
LAST FIVE
MILAN: WDDWD
INTER: WWWWW
FORMATIONS
MILAN (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Hernandez, Tomori, Kjær, Calabria (C); Tonali, Krunic; Saelemaekers, Bennacer, Diaz; Giroud
INTER (3-5-2): Onana; Bastoni, Acerbi, Darmian; Dimarco, Mkhitaryan, Calhanoglu, Barella, Dumfries; Martinez (C), Dzeko
TIME: 3pm EST/8pm GMT
PLACE: San Siro, Milano
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount + has your Champions League action in the US. Check your local listings.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
Where to start! Milan and Inter have already played three times this season, with both teams splitting the head-to-head league matches and Inter winning the Supercoppa. Every game was different, so while it’s difficult to say any of these Champions League fixtures will resemble them it might still be useful to see what happened.
Matchday 4 - September 3, 2022: Milan 3 Inter 2
Inter scored first with a Brozovic goal, then the Leão Show started and he bagged a brace and in between those 2 goals he assisted on a goal by Giroud. Like I said, the Leão Show. Dzeko got Inter’s 2nd goal in the 67th minute and Milan held for the win.
Of the three previous games, this one looked the most like the two league games from 2022. Both teams fielded just about the same lineups and while Pioli chose to not sit on Brozovic like he did with Kessie (De Ketelaere started), the game felt the same in terms of flow and openness. Both teams tried to play attacking football, both tried to stay wide and attack the 18yd box with crosses, and in the end Milan proved to be the better team living in the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Supercoppa - January 18, 2023: Milan 0 Inter 3
Oh boy, the next game between the two was right when Milan was in free-fall in January 2023. Pioli was trying to do the same thing he had been but teams had finally caught on that they could attack Milan’s right side (Calabria & Kjær) and get at an unprotected Tatarusanu to attack. The result was just one of many in a disastrous month, one where Milan had given up 14 goals in 4 games, 18 goals in the month (7 total games), and eventually caused Pioli to temporarily switch to a low block and a 3-man backline.
The stats on this game are misleading, as Inter was up 2-0 by the 21st minute and completely exposed the right side I just mentioned because Milan was still playing high and pressuring high, meaning once Inter won back the ball it was off to the races. That slow backline meant Inter’s preferred counter-attacking approach was on full display and while Inter would eventually get a 3rd goal, the result was never in doubt.
Matchday 21 - February 5, 2023: Milan 0 Inter
The 2nd matchday meeting, and 3rd overall for this season between the two teams, was the first game of Pioli’s aforementioned temporary switch to a 3-man backline and a low block, all to protect Traffic Cone Tatarusanu. This game was all Inter, all game, and Milan did little going forward.
Inter, for all it’s possession and numerous shots, could only muster a single goal, that coming on a blown assignment by Kjær on a Lautaro header off a corner. As you can see from the stats, much of Inter’s offensive game was toothless but it didn’t matter as Milan went ultra-defensive, sat back, and couldn’t piece together a coherent attack all game. Not even Leão, who didn’t even start the game, could do much to help salvage the tie.
KEY MATCHUPS
As you can see from the those previous matches, it’s anyone’s guess to how today’s game will go. Throw in Leão likely missing the match (or at the minimum, not starting) and who knows what this game will look like.
One thing we can do is look at key matchups and speculate how these might go or what we’ll be watching out for.
CALABRIA v DIMARCO Depending on how Pioli decides to play the game, either low block or high press, will determine how much I worry about this matchup. If Pioli decides to sit back then Calabria is going to need to stay close to Dimarco and that means staying wider than he did vs Kvaratskhelia. One-footed Kvaratskhelia only wanted to run at Calabria and cut in on his right foot, Dimarco is more than happy to stay wide and bang in crosses. With Lukaku, Lautaro, and Dzeko as options in the box at any given time, Dimarco has plenty of targets to aim for in the 18yd box.
If Pioli decides to play high, oh boy, that is when I’m going to worry. With no Leão out there to keep opponents honest, if Pioli plays high I think he’s flirting with disaster. Inter will counter without fear of being caught the other way. Magic Mike is the best keeper in the world but even he won’t be able to keep all of those shots out.
KRUNIC v BARELLA There are few Inter players I despise more than Barella. But the kid is good and Krunic is going to need to muscle him around and because of that I’m sure we’re going to see more flopping around. This will be especially key if Pioli decides to cede possession in that low block as Barella is the orchestrator when Inter is building attack in the final 3rd. If Krunic can getting into Barella’s head and the ref isn’t calling it too touchy, then I think Krunic can neutralize him from the game
BENNACER v BROZOVIC/CALHANOGLU Last season Pioli provided everyone in Serie A the blueprint for shutting down Inter and that was putting someone, specifically a defensive-minded midfielder, on Brozovic and sit on him all game. As the maestro at the back, Brozovic is the one that kick-starts all of those effective Inter counter-attacks, so I’ll be watching Bennacer and seeing if he’s able to snuff out Inter getting the ball to Brozovic. With Bennacer’s wonderful pressure causing the opening goal vs Lazio this past weekend, and with Bennacer himself getting the goal, I actually think this approach will work even better than it did with Kessie last season. It’ll work particularly well if Leão is out there, be it this leg or the 2nd (or both), because Bennacer is substantially better going forward than Kessie was last season.
If Brozovic doesn’t play, does Pioli ask Bennacer to sit on Calhanoglu? I don’t think that would be necessary but it depends where and how good’ol Hakan is deployed. If so I would love to see Hakan’s derp face all game because he couldn’t muster anything, which would be on par for all of his previous games vs Milan sans that one game he got the penalty and scored the ensuing penalty kick.
LEÃO IN v LEÃO OUT If Leão is not able to go, and it looks like that’ll be the case for this 1st leg, does Inter go ALL OUT and try to kill off this tie today and make next Tuesday irrelevant with a big lead? For Milan, if no Leão does that mean the goal in this 1st leg is to survive and save it all for the 2nd leg?…a 2nd leg with Leão expected back?
I think this is the biggest X-factor (Leão or no Leão) of the game and is the most difficult to predict beforehand. If Pioli doesn’t merely try to survive today, who does he turn to for offense? Will we see Theo getting more advanced like last game? Will Brahim find room to maneuver with no Leão out there to help draw defenders and space out the defense? Can Giroud do anything with the few chances he’s likely to get? Will we get a surprise appearance from Saeladona??? These are all things I’ll be thinking about this game
THOUGHTS
Alright, I think I said enough but I’ll end with a similar theme as what started this post: enjoy it. Yes, I want Milan to win and get to the Champions League final but I’m not going to lose sight at how special this next week is going to be. The world, with new viewing options and access, will get to see one of the game’s best rivalries in one of the best and most historic stadiums, many for the first time. Let’s go Milan, lay it all out there and let the cards fall as they may.
Forza Milan
gillis