AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME! Seven league games to decide who’s going where in Europe. What makes it fun is that unlike last year we have a ton of games where these teams face each other. Instead of scoreboard watching we are gonna be GAME WATCHING. Here’s a look at everyone’s schedule along with a brief analysis of the games remaining.
Napoli (1st)
Napoli 78pts (1st) – They are basically done except for celebrating which could come at home this week to Salernitana with a win. Should be a no brainer. That sound you are going to hear Saturday afternoon will be the whole island of Naples cracking off and launching into space. It’s been 33 years folks. They’re ready.
Lazio (2nd)
Lazio 61pts (2nd): @Inter, Sassuolo, @Milan, Lecce, @Udinese, Cremonese, @Empoli – Appears pretty straight forward for them. They are in 2nd with a 5 point gap with 7 to play. That’s deceiving though. Road trips twice to the San Siro and also to Udinese will not be easy. Home games against relegation battlers Lecce and Cremonese will also be tough. Toss in the home game to the Italian Jekyll and Hyde that is Sassuolo and there are no easy ties the rest of the way. Having no European commitments will help the cause as will a league-leading defense. I think they still make the top 4 but it might be on fumes as the 4th place team.
Juventus (3rd)
Juventus 59pts (3rd): @Inter (Coppa), @Bologna, Lecce, @Atalanta, Sevilla (Europa), Cremonese, @Sevilla (Europa), @Empoli, Coppa Final?, Milan, Europa Final?, @Udinese – There are still more sanctions and rumors of point deductions swirling but for now we will keep this to on-the-field action. Like Inter they are battling on 3 fronts including the league, Europe and the Coppa. The league run out isn’t bad until they get to Milan. Mixing in 2 legs against Sevilla in the Europa does complicate things, but Juve is as deep as anyone else when it comes to decent players. Then you also have a possible Coppa Italia Final AND the Europa League Final before the season ends. OK that’s crazy. That’s possibly 12 games in the next 39 days. WOW. It also gives them multiple paths into the Champions League. All I can say is Max knows what he is doing and will find a way. With the Coppa, Europa and top 4 all at stake it could still be a hugely successful season for Juventus. I wouldn’t bet against them.
Milan (4th)
Milan 56pts (4th): @Roma, Cremonese, Lazio, Inter (Champions League), @Spezia, @Inter (Champions League), Sampdoria, @Juventus, Hellas Verona – The Roma game is shaping up to be one of the games of the year in the league. Milan have won the last 2 games there so I’m leaning that way. After that The biggest league game is the home game to Lazio. The Juve game LOOKS BIG but I think by that point Juve will be on the beach in the league and very busy in Europe. They could be involved in Europa AND the Coppa so they will be rotating heavily. Away to Spezia will be brutal but a draw should be enough. Samp is done for. The last game against Hellas might be for their survival but it might be completely meaningless. My crystal ball says Verona is toast by then. It looks daunting on paper but by the time the games come around it might not be that bad at all. Beat Roma and Lazio and 2nd is well within reach. Draw with both of them and 4th starts looking pretty good.
Roma (5th)
Roma 56pts (5th): Milan, @Monza, Inter, Leverkusen (Europa League), @Bologna, @Leverkusen (Europa), Salernitana, @Fiorentina, Europa Final?, Spezia – The loss to Atalanta on Monday was a killer. Not only are they now level on points with Milan but they are now also level on goal difference. For a team that struggles to score that’s a problem. Mix in the injury to Dybala in that game and that’s an even bigger problem. Without him they struggle to score much less win games. They will bunker in at home but having Milan and Inter coming to town looking for points that might be difficult. None of the road games are easy. Even Spezia at home will be tough as they hope to stay up. Mix in 2 games against a red hot Leverkusen and it’s a tough stretch. Mourinho will park the bus, complain and play the victim card hoping that will be enough. I’d say that would be enough if they were in 2nd and just looking to hold on. Having to move up that may prove difficult.
Inter (6th)
Inter 54pts (6th): Juventus (Coppa), Lazio, @Hellas Verona, @Roma, @Milan (Champions League), Sassuolo, Milan (Champions League), @Napoli, Coppa Final?, Atalanta, @Torino – It’s feast or famine for Inter. Champions League, Coppa and top 4 are all on the line. In Inzaghi gets all 3 he’s a god. If he wins 2 of 3 he’s a hero. If he wins the Coppa but finishes 6th he might be fired. The run out has a lot of games and a lot of HARD games. They play all 5 teams in front of them in different competitions and also Hellas who is scraping for their lives. The only ‘easy’ game is Sassuolo and you never know what you are gonna get with them. It’s a tough road but on paper they are one of the deepest, most talented teams in Italy and really all of Europe. Of all the teams they are the toughest call. I could believe almost any result that happens.
Atalanta (7th)
Atalanta 52pts (7th): @Torino, Spezia, Juventus, @Salernitana, Hellas Verona, @Inter, Monza – No Europe. No Coppa. Four points back with 7 to play. That doesn’t seem like a lot but it is. They probably need 15 points to get there. That means no slip ups. Considering their up-and-down home form and a pretty steep hill to climb, I’m just not gonna consider them. I want to. Fun story. Not happening though. They will be back in Europa next year and probably put together a heck of a run.
Wrap Up
PREDICTION TIME!
NAPOLI wins the league…. close call
JUVENTUS also wins the Coppa
MILAN plays well down the stretch
LAZIO does enough to stay top 4
ROMA wins Europa
ATALANTA slip up one too many times
INTER loses the CL Final and Inzaghi is canned
Forza Milan
Lisi