Going into the Maradona up 1-0…I’ll take those odds
LAST FIVE
MILAN: DWDWL
NAPOLI: DLWLW
FORMATIONS
MILAN (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Hernandez, Tomori, Kjær, Calabria (C); Tonali, Krunic; Leão, Bennacer, Diaz; Giroud
NAPOLI (4-3-3): Meret; Rui, Jesus, Rrahmani, Di Lorenzo (C); Zielinski, Lobotka, Ndobélé; Kvaratskhelia, Osimhen, Politano
TIME: 3pm EST/8pm GMT
PLACE: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
WHERE TO WATCH:
Paramount + has your Champions League action in the US. Check your local listings.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
I was going to talk about some of these in yesterday’s preview but it was already pretty long in the tooth, so here are some key matchups I’ll be thinking about today
KEY MATCHUPS
OSIMHEN v KJÆR/TOMORI Despite this being Osimhen’s 3rd year in Serie A, this is only slated to be his 3rd game vs Milan. Which is odd. In his first season with Napoli he faced them in March of 2021, the 2nd of two league meetings, and logged 28 minutes and had 2 shots. Last season he played against Milan, also in the second of the 2 matchups last season, and had only 3 shots in 90 minutes. I share this only to point out that he’s not some Milan-killer. Doesn’t mean Milan shouldn’t be VERY aware of him but I don’t think this is a good matchup for him. I know I wasn’t scared of him last season because I knew he wouldn’t get behind Kalulu and Tomori, and I’m not scared of him in a condensed game in tight quarters, which is what I expect this game to be. Osimhen, like Kvaratskhelia, do their most damage in an open and free-flowing game, where they can use their speed against an unorganized and retreating defense. Again, that is not going to be this game.
SPALLETTI v LEÃO/BRAHIM Can Spalletti afford to leave Leão and Brahim 1:1 while having his team press forward? I think if he doesn’t he won’t have enough going forward, but if he does leave them 1:1 then any time Milan win the ball back Napoli will be severely jeopardized and at great risk of giving up a goal. Maybe Spalletti has someone sit on Brahim and prevent him from getting the ball, but that’s leaving it awfully thin at the back to cover Leão. It’s a case of, pick your poison, Spalletti…
BENNACER/BRAHIM Bennacer has been Pioli’s ace in the hole, as he’s provided Pioli with a defensive presence to shut down Lobotka, but has been excellent in getting forward, moving around, and providing key contributions in the offensive game. Surely Pioli will be expecting an onslaught from Spalletti, and if Calabria and Kjær are starting as they have been and are expected to be, then Pioli will not try and surprise Napoli with a hard pressing/high line and will be sitting back. In the 1st leg Milan’s midfield was overrun less so on bodies but because Napoli were aggressively playing the passing lanes and cutting off outlets. This is why when Brhaim ventured to the middle, received the ball and split the defenders, there was NOBODY around. All the Napoli players had overcommitted. I’m going to be watching how Brahim and Bennacer move around and I’m expecting them to be switching places often, providing changing points of refence and confusing assignments for Napoli’s defenders. I think this, more than anything, will be the key to the game
SITTING BACK & DEFENSIVE LINEUP DECISIONS I’m always of the opinion you start your best players who fit the strategy or the philosophy the coach wants to implement, and for me that would be Kalulu over Calabria and Thiaw with a slight edge over Kjær. This would be the case most of the time and for sure when Pioli is instituting the high press/high line. But he’s VERY likely not going to do that and so does he stick with the same lineup for the 3rd straight game? All signs are pointing towards yes and so it’s going to come down to execution. Kalulu looked good returning from injury over the weekend and I still wish he was going to start him because if Calabria can pocket Kvaratskhelia then Kalulu definitely can. That being said, Pioli always has Kalulu close by when he’s not starting so I would expect a quick insertion should Calabria not be up to task. As for Thiaw/Kjær, I spoke a little bit about this above but the veteran brick wall has pocketed Kane already this Champions League and in a low block I believe he can do the same with Osimhen…with some help from Tomori when Osimhen has a little space. Let’s hope we see Good Tomori and he gives that little helping hand when needed
THOUGHTS
Seize the moment, boys. Give it all ya got!
Forza Milan
gillis