Round 26 Matchups! Now with matchup ratings!
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SPEZIA V INTER Spezia continue to sputter post WC break. They have 1 win in 10 during that time. Even worse at home they have 3 losses and 3 draws since the break and have gone 5 home games without a single goal. Dropping into the bottom 3 only feels like a matter of time. Since the break Inter have only 1 road win, away to Cremonese. Included in there is a loss at Bologna and draws away to Monza and last place Sampdoria. News also comes out this morning that Inzhagi might rotate several players, including Handanovic in goal. Honestly, even with a fair bit of rotation this is a game Inter should win, right? Right?? I’m not putting a single nickel on this one. It might be ugly but I’ll say INTER WINS
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EMPOLI V UDINESE Much like Monza continue to Monza, Empoli continue to Empoli. They are 14th at home and 14th on the road and sit… 14th. They are doing their usual post January nosedive, they are last in the form table at 2 points, but remain on solid footing. One point above them in that same form table sit Udinese. Loyal readers know I’ve been down on them since the Deulofeu injury and nothing has changed to alter that view. They still haven’t won a single game he hasn’t appeared in. They are now down to 10th. Early in the season this was a candidate for a solid fun/bad game. Now I think it’s just bad. DRAW
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NAPOLI V ATALANTA The Jekyll and Hyde road warrior Atalanta crew come to Naples. The best road team in the league the last few years. They are sputtering of late though. The fighting Gasperini’s need to start getting things going again. They have lost 3 of 4, including games to Lecce and Sassuolo, and now sit in 6th. The European dream is fading and the offense has stagnated. Lookman hasn’t scored in 6 is now well in Osimhen’s rear view mirror as leading scorer. Muriel and Zapata are past it. Pasalic has just 2 goals all year. Despite last weeks loss, Napoli continue to roll. Expect a full strength lineup as they look to get back on track. This is certainly the match of the weekend but might be a blowout. I expect goals here. Osimhen and Kvara both get on the board as NAPOLI WINS
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BOLOGNA V LAZIO Last week Bologna blew their chance to move ahead of Juve by losing on the road to Torino. No shame there but a win you gotta get if you want to climb into 7th. They continue to struggle against the better teams. They also continue to struggle to score having scored more than 1 goal in only 9 of 25 matches so far. They desperately need an in form Arnautovic. Lazio are coming off a massive win over Napoli. Then they lost to Alkmaar in the Europa League. I would say NOW is the time they need to decide to pick one competition or the other but I think that’s been made for them. They need top 4 and they need more investment. They remain perilously shallow. I picked them for top 4 before the year and this game is a must for that to happen. The home team hasn’t lost this matchup in 5 years. I’ll go with a very entertaining 1-1 DRAW
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LECCE V TORINO Hmmm. Hmmmmmm. I really like both of these teams and their coaches. Torino continue to be right on the edge of breaking into the top 7 but JUST CAN’T. They are currently just 1 point behind 7th. So close. That despite the injury list getting longer and longer. Despite 2 losses in a row they are still on target for survival. Meanwhile Lecce look safe and feel safe. Falcone continues keep the locker room room warm and fuzzy. Hjulmand and Gallo continue to help him defend. Strefezza is a joy to watch. I expect a bit of a staring match here but ultimately the 30 point safety plateau is reached and LECCE WINS
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CREMONESE V FIORENTINA Cremonese have all of a sudden become a really fun team to watch. Since accepting their fate they are scoring goals and playing fun, back and forth games. They have 21 games all year and 6 of them are in their last 3. Just bet the over on them the rest of the year. Fiorentina are finally firing on all cylinders. After being great in Europe and mediocre in the league they are rolling in both. Cabral is finally scoring having potted 5 in his last 7. Amrabat looks like WC Amrabat again. Watch out. A hot streak and they could shoot up into 7th overnight. Expect goals and fun as FIORENTINA WINS
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HELLAS V MONZA I keep thinking Hellas are gonna climb out of the relegation zone and they keep letting me down. That’s code for I keep betting on them and losing. Their home record isn’t helping. Also injuries are starting to pile up. Zero goals in 3 now. Is there hope? Meh. Guess what? Monza could care less. They will continue to Monza. While safe they also recently went to Bologna and got a win. Fester’s plan of bringing in an army of vets has made them decent but also very deep. I really wanna say Hellas win this but I see Monza playing spoiler again as they creep back into the top half. MONZA WINS
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ROMA V SASSUOLO Roma are RED HOT at home. They have won their last 5 at the Olimpico without conceding a goal. (Away is a different story as they have 0 wins in their last 5 road matches). Mourinho has finally succeeded in locking things down at home. A huge step for a notoriously up and down home team. Also vital for their top 4 hopes. The Dybala-Abraham duo is starting to link up nicely. FUN FACT: Roma have never lost to Sassuolo at home. Sassuolo have finally steadied the ship. Wins against Lecce and Cremonese means they beat the teams they need to beat to stay up. Mission accomplished. That streak ends here though. Roma look REALLY good. IN MY LOCK OF THE WEEK ROMA WINS!!!
Also parlay the clean sheet to boot.
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JUVE V SAMPDORIA Samp stinks. I’m sorry. I’m done with them. Go away. Juve rolls… but doesn’t roll? This should be 5-0 but won’t. It will probably be a mind numbing 1-0 win that will keep Juve complaining for at least 72 hours afterward while burning effigies of Allegri. Then they will get excited about the Pogba signing again and sleep well. JUVE WINS
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MILAN V SALERNITANA Milan’s remaining home fixtures are Salernitana, Empoli, Lecce, Cremonese, Lazio, Sampdoria and Hellas Verona. Not exactly murderers row. That makes these all must win games in the race for top 4. With only 2 games in the next 21 days that means you roll out the big guns. Rest later boys. Start the starters Pioli. For Salernitana the last 2 games were massive. A huge home win against Monza and a road draw to Samp. That’s 4 points of breathing room that was desperately needed. January signing Memo Ochoa might well deserve a statue if they survive. Tightening up the back has been key to scratching out points. Nothing comes easy for the Rossoneri but I still think MILAN WINS
The big teams must avoid slip ups as 3 points are on the table for all of them. Also the chase for that 7th spot is heating up!
Happy watching!
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene.