Milan x Atalanta

TIME: 2:45pm EST/7:45pm GMT

PLACE: San Siro, Milano

WHERE TO WATCH:

Paramount+ and FuboTV here in the US of Aye and Canada, BeIn for our Aussie pals, ESPNPlay for our fellas in T&T, JioTV for our Indian leoni, and illegal streams that support dictators and oligarchs everywhere.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

A rematch of an early 2022-23 league game between the two that ended in a draw. Atalanta threw Milan a curveball in that one and Gasperini had his men sit back and counter rather than his usual aggressively pressing side. In fact, this is how Atalanta played a good chunk of the first half of the season while scratching out some wins even if done differently than how we’ve been used to seeing them. But they are definitely back to the offensive Atalanta even if running hot and cold as of late: 3L-1W while scoring 3 in their last four games after going 3W-1D while scoring 18 in the four games before that.

We all know Milan has really turned it around since going to the back 3 but things are about to get even more interesting as Mike Maignan is expected back for his first game action in 5 months. This has me very curious and excited to see how Pioli is going to play initially and how he manages in-game. Is he going to continue to sit back more? Will he return to a high press/high line approach? Will he toggle back and forth between these two styles?

Here are a few more things I’ll be watching for:

• Ademola Lookman has shined for Atalanta this season, as he currently ranks 3rd in Serie A with 12 goals. He’s has been outstanding with his opportunities, ranking in the top 3 with xG (expected goals), G-xG (goals minus expected goals), and non-penalty G-xG (non-penalty goals minus expected goals). I bring all of his up just to say that with Maignan expected back, combined with KT2 (Kalulu-Thiaw-Tomori for you newbies), I’m less concerned with Lookman as strikers have really struggled vs Milan when the backline is healthy and playing, and I’m actually more concerned about the next guy
• Koopmeiners. He’s been Atalanta’s best overall player this season and the bulk of the responsibility for shutting him down will fall not on the backline but the midfield, especially Tonali and Krunic. I believe they’ll be up to the task but this will be the focal point for me when Milan is defending: Koopmeiners quiet/invisible then Milan should be snuffing out anything threatening and Atalanta will be toothless in attack. But if not…
• For Milan, I hope to see what we saw vs Monza right before Pioli started making subs: Brahim was being found by his teammates after Milan won back the ball and he was springing counter attacks or racking up yellows. Speaking of yellows…
• While I still want to see Leão get wider and really utilize that pace out on the left, I hope Pioli purposely tries to get Leão the ball in isolation once an Atalanta player is booked who’s tasked with covering him. This is something Pioli needs to improve upon as, like with Brahim last game, defenders having to cover those two guys, already carded, will allow some great build-up and scoring opportunities
• Theo. Has. To. Stop. Being. So. Wasteful. In. Front. Of. Goal. Don’t forget, it was in the return leg late last season where Theo had that Weah-esque end-to-end goal that sealed Milan’s 2-0 win and put them in a great position to finish off the season in the final game. Let’s hope he regains being a little more clinical in front of goal and starts making better decisions with the final ball
• Saelemaekers or Messias? Whoever starts will give us some insight in terms of what Pioli expects at least at onset of the match. If it’s Messias, Pioli thinks he’ll be able to handle Atalanta’s attack and get out running. If it’s Saelemaekers, then he wants to completely shut down Atalanta’s left side, make Atalanta play on their right where winning the ball back can generate better and quicker counter-attacking opportunities utilizing Milan’s more-potent attacking left side
• Finally. Magic Mike. How does he look? How much rust will there be? It seems to me that Milan waited extra long to bring him back after he suffered that initial setback before the World Cup. Calf injuries linger and can for a really long time so my hunch is that we’ll see the world’s best keeper playing like his old self, as the extra time was to help him regain confidence the calf will hold up just as much as it was to let the injury fully heal

One last thing, before this write-up Inter played Bologna and lost 1-0, meaning that if Milan take care of business today they would be at the minimum tied for second place level on points with Inter and possibly Roma. Even if Milan remain in 4th despite a win due to goal differential, seeing them level on points would be a huge boost to their confidence and ours and I think could help get Milan truly rolling down the stretch.

So, I’m going to go with a 2-0 Milan win today. Let’s get’em, boys!

Forza Milan

gillis