Round 18 Matchups! On we go!
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NAPOLI-JUVENTUS The BIG ONE. Juve is racing up the table and now sit second. They also still get two more shots at Napoli this season, making this a massive fixture. They come in winners of 8 straight having scored 14 goals and conceded 0. Allegri is pushing all the right buttons and is slowly mixing Chiesa back in after injury. Napoli have started slow since the break. A loss to Inter was ugly and even the win against Sampdoria wasn’t pretty, featuring a missed penalty. Otherwise they feature a ton of players that didn’t feature during the World Cup and have had plenty of time off. I fully expect a cagey (read BORING) matchup that frustrates the casual fan. Napoli will have the ball and Juve will sit in a low block to counter. I fully expect a draw. maybe even 0-0. With a 7 point lead in the league there is no reason for Napoli to do anything crazy. There is room for Juve to try something. What that something is only Max knows. Wanna go out on a limb here but… DRAW
FYI: If you have time before the match sneak in the last 10 minutes of this weeks Serie A Sitdown pod. Frank Crivello gives an excellent run down of what to expect.
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CREMONESE-MONZA As I mentioned earlier in the week on twitter, I think the late 1-0 loss to Juve broke Cremonese. They are now pinned in last with 0 wins and only 7 points through 17. Keep an eye on transfer rumors for their keeper Carnosecchi. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a big club come in for him and leave him there on loan for the rest of the year. Meanwhile Monza have scrambled to mid table and have draws against Fiorentina and Inter since the break. They are scoring better but also can’t seem to keep a clean sheet. That changes in this one as they get the road win and put another nail in Cremonese’s coffin. MONZA WINS
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LECCE-MILAN Lecce are 15th in scoring and Milan can’t keep a clean sheet. Falcone is still my low key MVP of the season keeping Lecce in most games while Milan fans are ready to shoot Tatarusanu to the moon. Milan has scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 league games while Lecce has scored twice in a game just 3 times all season. Also Lecce have been weaker at home while Milan have been solid on the road. All this points to a 2-1 Milan win. Call me crazy and nail my head to the wall but I’m gonna go with exactly that. MILAN WINS
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INTER-HELLAS I see 3 possibilities this week for really good, fun/bad games and this is the first of them. Inter has been really good at home, scoring 2.5 goals per game. It seems like every game Dzeko and lautaro are crashing the box like it’s their honeymoon. The defense has been better at home but overall has still been leaky. Verona are finally righting the ship and are getting goals from different places. They won’t win but they will lose in spectacular fashion. I’ll say 4-2 Inter with a hat trick from Lautaro and Doig with a couple assists for Verona, one off Djuric’s head. INTER WINS
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SASSUOLO-LAZIO Our second candidate for fun/bad game of the week. Both started off the season playing great defense and both have all of a sudden become sieves. Sassuolo have given up 19 in their last 9 while Lazio have conceded 8 in their last 3. Goals akimbo folks! The only issue here might be deciding a winner. Also Sassuolo don’t quite have the firepower that Lazio have. They have slid all the way down to 16th. Granted the relegation zone is 6 points away. If they can’t find some offense things could get sticky. Rest assured the over will certainly be in play. 2-1? 3-1? 3-2? Whatever. LAZIO WINS
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TORINO-SPEZIA This game would be the polar opposite of a fun bad game. Torino are brutal to play on the road against having conceded only 4 goals at home all year while scoring just 6. Spezia meanwhile have only scored 3 road goals all season. Also both teams have solid keepers in Dragowski at Spezia and Milinkovic-Savic at Torino. Bet the under for sure. My only worry here is that Torino might be tired after giving everything to outlast Milan in the Coppa midweek. Still I think 0-0 is a very real possibility. DRAW
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UDINESE-BOLOGNA Udinese has been in the toilet but the footballing gods have handed them this game ON A PLATTER. Bologna come into this game with both Medel and Dominguez out due to red cards but also both Barrow and Arnautovic are out injured. That doesn’t leave many options at Motta’s disposal. On the other side Udinese have almost everyone available. I say almost everyone as Gerard Deulofeu, their first half MVP, is HEAVILY linked to Aston Villa and wasn’t even on the bench for either game since the break. Not a good sign when your playmaker has had his head turned. This is a hard one to figure with one team missing so much and the other in turmoil. I really wanna say Bologna finds a way but common sense says perhaps not. DRAW
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ATALANTA-SALERNITANA Our 3rd fun/bad candidate. Atalanta bounced back last week away to Bologna. A must have result if they are to right the ship and get themselves involved in the race for top 4. Problem is as has been discussed here many times they are dreadful at home, especially against lower squads. Atalanta are 15th in the league at home this year. Oof. Cue up Salernitana who only have one road win all year, away to Lazio 3-1. Ochoa is keeping them in games despite them still leaking gals since the break. Seems like this should be the perfect matchup for Aalanta to get on the right side of things at home. It’s games like this that lead my not to gamble. Expect goals. Otherwise just flinging poo at the wall here. ATALANTA WINS
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ROMA-FIORENTINA Roma’s draw away to Milan flatters to deceive for a team that is still struggling mightily to score. All the firepower on that team and they have exactly as many goals as Fiorentina. Can anyone name their leading scorer? Perhaps the late goal by Abraham spurs him on to a hot streak? Perhaps Fiorentina get a third win coming off the break? It’s Mourinho the savior against the wildly discounted Italiano. Lots of ways to go here. My immediate thought was goals but Roma have played low scoring games at home all year. Home team has won the last 5 in this series. I’ll go with that. ROMA WINS
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EMPOLI-SAMPDORIA Empoli are a woeful 17th in points at home this campaign. Sampdoria are much better on the road, 12th as opposed to dead last at home. Road team has strangely won 3 of the last 4 in this series. Samp have been better since Stankovic took over looking to slowly crawl from the relegation zone. Empoli will know that even just a draw here still keeps them double digits from the drop. It might seem early for that kind of talk but Empoli know better. Watch Vicario in goal for Empoli and newcomer Nuytink marshalling the backline for Samp. This smells of a 0-0. Maybe the under? DRAW.
The huge matchup at the top is the headliner but also some other solid matchups top to to bottom. Midweek next week features more Coppa action and also the Milan Derby for the Super cup. Then the following weekend we hit the midway point in Serie A.
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FORZA MILAN!
Lisi
PS: If you enjoy making a few bets the KICKS and PICKS PODCAST is a must listen. They touch on a lot of Serie A action but also have their eyes on other leagues across Europe. Fun show with excellent insight. Great for anyone new to the betting scene.