Seeing that picture with Baresi’s number, the remembrance we saw at the first home game, got me wondering: Can Milan be great again?
With the season fully underway and the mercato finally closing a few days ago, we’re ready with our latest Season Preview ever. This is not my preferred way to do it but I also wish the mercato better aligned with when European seasons start. Can’t always get what you want, right?
So, for this year’s preview it’s just going to be me and Pete Acquaviva discussing all the usual things one does when a new season kicks off. I’ll try to get Pete to comment more here as I think he has a lot of insight, but we do have a lot of conversations offline around Milan and I always value his perspectives and insights. If you’re on Twitter, be sure to find and follow Pete (I just made it real easy by linking his account!).
Let’s get started.
Season Preview
The Mercato
Ok, the mercato closed and it’s what’s on everyone’s mind: how did Milan do, say on a scale of 1-10?
Gillis: Then, more specifically: what did they do that they excites you or gives you confidence? And likewise, what did they do (or maybe didn’t do) that has you less confident?
Pete: 6 – average. Good players, new philosophy l, space for youngsters but an incomplete squad. It’s kinda the point though and it’s why you let a guy like Amorim drive this. They whiffed on Karetsas though. That’s tough. The lack of a SD made a huge difference and why some of these guys aren’t being sold.
Leaving space for Comotto (loaning the perennially average Ricci) and Camarda (bringing no backups in) is something I am excited about. It’ll cost them at some point but fine, do it now. They’re not in the CL anyway, so let’s go for this.
Less confidentially is the selling or lack thereof. Bringing tomori back in the squad worries me, so they decided he didn’t have the right mentality but a month later when they don’t sign anyone suddenly he does? I’ll go with the coach but that’s a red flag.
Gillis: Before I asked the question, I didn’t think I’d be higher than you on the mercato and yet, I think I’m at around a 7. These things are always dependent on time and we haven’t seen Moreira or Hutchinson play, so this could definitely be a higher…or lower…grade in my mind even a month from now.
But overall I’m most happy with how all these guys fit to Amorim’s system and the characteristics apparently brought in. We got the Leao/winger replacement in Moriera that better fits to what Amorim needs in a winger. We of course got a really good, quality striker in Ramos. And finally, just at the end we apparently got the playmaker we needed Hutchinson. We did get another good CB in Gila but I thought that was the least important of the acquisitions. Depth is always good with multiple competitions I guess.
So that’s what gives me confidence. The fit and characteristics. What gives me less confidence is less on the players, although moving out dead weight is important for the books, and more on the continued building and patience of management. This is more broad than just the mercato but turning into a Chelsea or ManU, just the thought of that is the worst. Milan doesn’t have the coffers to have the land of misfit toys when it comes to the first team squad. Everyone needs to be rowing in the same direction even if for some reason Milan moves on from Amorim in a year or two for whatever reason. Just believe and execute on the vision of having a system and hiring and signing players to it.
I think this is a good segue into the next question: the new coach…
The New Coach
What are your thoughts on Ruben Amorim generally, not as Milan’s new coach? Do you like his style of football and if no, why? Likewise, if not, why?
Pete: I like a high press. The best time to win the ball back is always as quickly as possible after losing it. I do notice a difference in possession with how the team builds up compared to allegri. It’s a breath of fresh air. I like the mentality from what I’ve seen and it’s a small sample size but seems to have fixed Musah? It’s nice to have someone actually maximalizing talent for once. He had clear ideas that aren’t just backwards ideas that have been getting Italy into trouble for 20 years. It seems he’s getting some support as well, it seems they would have gone for Endrick and did for Karetsas and reportedly it was Amorim who was like were good with this roster. But also it’s the Italian press so I take with a grain of salt.
Gillis: I’m a high press guy too. One of my favorite things about Pioli. So, I’m excited about that for sure. Questions I have around him revolve around how does he adjust or does he when the situation warrants it? Does he just continue to force his approach regardless of opponent, believing his team has the quality and the execution to beat anyone, or does he sometimes land on taking away what the opponent does best even if that means pulling away from your preferred approach and maybe what your team does best? I obviously didn’t know the guy but reading and researching him for the welcome post here, it seemed he was stubborn to relent while at ManU, and probably didn’t have to at Sporting, and by the time he started adjusting at ManU it was too late.
Pete: It sounds like you’re traumatized from someone else who may be that dogmatic in their approach.
Gillis: Haha! Yes, Allegri left a scar. But Pioli, as much as I loved him, did that too at times, specifically with Inter. Inter is good a multiple things but they’ve been really good during this 6-7yr run at counterattacking. Pioli continued to high press them and we saw what happened. Even Fonseca, who did not play Allegri ball, understood this and changed from fluid attacking football to one that hunkered down vs Inter. So, I have my preferences in footballing philosophy but what I value even more than that is tactical acumen and flexibility. Unless you’re one of the big teams of Europe, talent levels are usually about even so winning the chess game is how you have sustained success.
Pete: Well, so how you do this is always the key. I haven’t seen him change shape just yet with Milan, but also it’s preseason. I think about a quote from the Indianapolis Colts when they asked if they had a plan for what to do if Peyton Manning went down. His response: “If he goes down we’re fucked, and we don’t practice fucked”.
Gillis: Thankfully most soccer teams aren’t so one-player dependent but point taken. There is only so much planning one can do. But a willingness to adjust is a key coaching characteristic for me and I hope it’s one of his takeaways from the ManU job, especially for a tactical league like Serie A.
But this is a good segue into the next topic since you brought up shape…
Formation
Formation and his 3-man backline? That's generally not my preferred shape and I know formation is just something on paper, as formation/shape is fluid depending on if you're in possession or not and where you are on the pitch, etc. Do you like the formation and/or do you have any concerns around the formation or the pieces Milan brought in for it? Will it, combined with what Amorim wants to do, work in Serie A?
Pete: Yeah I don’t love a three man backline because you concede a midfield player to get an extra central defender. But it does allow you to do different things with your wingers, unfortunately one of which is Estupiñan.
I think it’s what’s in form for now though for Italy so that should be effective; the team has experience playing with 3 CBs and I don’t think it requires as much adaptation – which Cardinale probably was happy to find out.
They chose players that make sense and didn’t force anything, so maybe I will bump the market grade up a little. Not stepping on a rake is honestly an improvement. But we’ll have to see what happens with everyone, some of these guys we just don’t have a frame of reference for.
Gillis: It IS the en vogue formation right now. I hate it. And your comment about exchanging a midfielder for a CB is part of it, but I dislike having 2 big lumbering CBs, much less 3, running around too. If your approach is to win the ball back and ideally not spend much time in your own box, I don’t get why we have 3 of basically the same type of CB out there whose characteristics would be better suited defending corners. I know Tomori isn’t everyone’s favorite, but if not him then get someone, anyone back there with some speed.
On the rest of the formation and players and fit, I like Leão and didn’t want him sold AND I said if you have him, you run the offense through him. If Amorim wasn’t going to do that then moving him was the move. So, I’m actually fine with it because it’s logically what was needed considering the whole situation of coaching change and philosophy and all of that. On the other pieces, I’m not really relying on Pulisic much mentally. I think he has a down year and/or doesn’t play much and is moved by next summer. I’m excited about Moreira and Hutchinson as I’m a big fan of dynamic players who can change the game and bring something different. I don’t know them well enough, obviously, but the little reading I did on them gives me some hope.
Please respond to anything said but before moving on to the last couple of things around predictions, are you concerned at all about the team stalling out and having a hard time scoring? Essentially, are you concerned Amorim Ball doesn’t pan out? I see some of these other teams like Inter, Roma, and Como getting early goals and controlling the game and so far both of the games we’ve seen, while better than last season, Milan is still laboring to get on the scoreboard.
Pete: Gila is fast at least.
Leão had to go, so that’s fair wish him well. Pulisic kinda feels like he has the yips.. I wonder what it is..
Not too worried about the team stalling out and scoring issues, I lived through Max twice so it’s not as much of a fear when you’ve seen it over and over. I just hope it happens less often.
Am I worried if it doesn’t pan out? Not really, when you’ve seen a million year Zeroes it just doesn’t phase you as much. I’ve seen what starting over looks like, would like to avoid it but honestly if it happens, it happens. Bit by bit they get better though from the end of the cycle of the Pioli era.
Gillis: All of that is fair. And the stalling out mostly worries me in that if it means a 7th place finish but clearly there is a philosophy there and promise with another summer to strengthen…that management panics again and we get another restart. As long as there are positive signs then I don’t mind short term pain.
But you brought up expectations, so now is a good time to move on to predictions…
Predictions
Where do you Milan finish in the table? In Europa?
Pete: 4-6 range, and I think they recalibrate in the winter market some. They could overachieve but also based on how everyone else looks so far, I think they’re outside a title shot and perhaps outside champions League with roster as is.
Europa I think they’ll play until they face someone taking the competition more seriously than them, so let’s say round of 16/8 exit.
Gillis: I agree on both fronts, but maybe I’m a little bit higher on that 4th spot in league play. I think that’s still Milan’s best spot with Juventus challenging the hardest for it. I don’t think Milan is better than Inter or Roma and probably not Como either. But they can beat Juventus and we’ll get that opportunity this weekend.
Pete: Roma are bottlers, I expect a collapse at some point to be honest. I think they don’t have the depth for the CL or league so maybe it’s one or the other for them.
Who ends up being team MVP? Who surprises us? Who disappoints us?
Pete: Team MVP: Ramos – goals win games.
Surprise will be RLC because every time you see him in the lineup you will be surprised. Come to think of it you’re also going to be disappointed.
Gillis: Ramos is a really good pick. Probably mine too. Thinking about who else might thrive and I just don’t think we have enough information about either the player or how they’ll play in Amorim’s system. Rabiot really surprised me last year and I think he can repeat that again but will that be his role? I don’t know.
Other guys I’m really curious about is Moreira and Hutchinson and I think they might be the ones to surprise us this season. I love a creative player and they’re where those responsibilities will likely fall.
I’m really curious about Bartesaghi and how he’ll do in Amorim’s system. Amorim likes his wingbacks to take on their guy and while I don’t think he’ll dribble past a lot of guys, isolated out wide and I think he can deliver via his crossing ability with either foot.
I would list RLC as my leading candidate for disappointment but I don’t expect anything so how can I be disappointed??? But a guy I’m really worried about is Pulisic. He had a mean drought last season and didn’t look all that great in the World Cup even before he got hurt
Pete: I’m a little skeptical or Bartesaghi but maybe it’s just growing pains. Honestly I’m looking forward to Jashari in this pressing central midfield, I think he really can make the most out of the system.
What’s your top 6 prediction? And who’s getting relegated?
Pete: Top 6 is:
- Inter
- Como
- Roma
- Milan
- Juve
- Napoli
Relegated:
- Monza
- Lecce
- Genoa
Gillis: My top 6 is almost the same:
- Inter
- Roma
- Como
- Milan
- Juve
- Napoli
Relegated:
- Monza
- Lecce
- Venezia
Gillis: Any closing thoughts before we wrap things up?
Pete: It’s really so hard to predict what direction this goes, but whichever way it is, it will feel obvious in retrospect.
Gillis: Agreed. Let’s see how we did come the end of May.
Wrap Up
Alright. That’s our official season preview after the quasi one a few weeks ago. Quite a bit different than last year’s when we spoke to Pete to get his insights but I refrained from saying a whole lot as Nonno Lisi was also part of that one. I thought about asking him in again but didn’t want him to have to put the drink-with-an-little-umbrella down. So, you got a more direct preview from me at least.
As you heard, I’m generally happy with the coach selection and the players brought in and those moved out and my guest, Pete, is also. Hopefully we continue with this project for a few years and see the vision through regardless of how this year zero works out. If that happens, I can see Milan make the change necessary to get back to where we were during the Maldini and Pioli years, maybe even improve on it with slightly larger coffers and a little luck. But management has to stay out of the way.
Forza Milan
gillis